BoilerUP

The increase in daily positives started being reported by CDC on 17 June (that's 16 June data).

Multiple studies from around the world have put the mean period from COVID symptom onset to death at 14 days; that would have been a 1 July reporting date to begin seeing an increase in deaths.

As of yesterday's CDC update, an increase in deaths corresponding with the increase in confirmed positive tests has not happened. The seven day moving average of daily deaths on 17 June was 676; on 1 July it was 618; on 7 July it was 485. I do believe the 485 figure is artificially lower due to lagging reporting over the 4th of July holiday weekend and whatever gets reported today (8 July) could be artificially high in order to 'normalize' the weekend's data...then again that's why seven-day moving averages are used to smooth those bumps.

I would postulate part of the reason for no spike in deaths with the increase of confirmed positive cases in the last three weeks has been substantially lower than it was from January through May, as much as 30 years younger in some of the Sun Belt states. This demographic shift in positive cases has almost certainly improved recoveries and outcomes, along with the experience gained in treating COVID in the last half year. I also believe vastly improved testing capacity combined with a broad new list that covers every symptom common with not just flu/colds but seasonal allergies and GI upset has resulted in capturing a LOT of asymptomatic and mild disease that never would have qualified for a test in March, April or perhaps even May. Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jimmy Johnson are but two recent examples of that.

Nantonaku

Americans without a US travel history (whatever that means) are going to be able to travel sometime soon?

contrails12

I think he’s saying if you’re an expat

Breadcream

Sorry for the delay fellas...

HERE ARE THE RESULTS OF THE CONTEST!

First and foremost, a big "THANK YOU" to those with the courage to participate; you are the select few that make this country so great. Secondly, I got my a** handed to me with this one...wow. What was I thinking with 1.1M passengers? In my defense, at the time of my prediction the media had stopped broadcasting the Covid numbers non-stop (they were focusing on protesters/looters) and it looked like we may have turned a page. Unfortunately the narrative has shifted once again and this second spike in cases has everyone panicking and Covid is back on top...ugh.

Enough about that, lets get to the winners and losers...

So the highest number of passengers we saw by 4 July was 764,761 peeps and that occurred on the 2nd.

OVERALL WINNER (closest guess):
ChazzMichaels with a guess of 767,000 on 22 Jun...pretty good folks...I'd take financial advice from him.

CLOSE SECONDS (within 50K and in order):
Excargodog
JBirdE175
Gloopy
tripled
RightSide
Skylarking
theUpsideDown
ApachePhil
pangolin

THIRDS (no greater than 200K off and in order):
mrfishy
WhiskeyDelta
20Fathoms
KnotSoFast
Go Cards go
notEnuf
tennisguru
Wolf424

NEEDS TO WEAR A MASK (greater than 200K over and in order):
Drum
Breadcream
crazyjaydawg
WarEagle (1.18M!! Good on ya' man!)

NEEDS TO GO OUTSIDE (greater than 200k under):
forgot to bid (500K...really?)

Honorable mention to those who didn't place a number but took the under to my 1.1M prediction:
Hank Kingsley
tallpilot
beis77

Once again, thanks for playing y'all! Maybe we'll do this again for 1 October. In the meantime, I'm going to go cry in a corner and eat a carton of Rocky Road.

ChazzMMichaels

theUpsideDown

​"​Close second" was my wrestling name in highschool!

forgot to bid

TSA numbers by July 4th, 2020: 466,669.

Down significantly from last July 4th.

i think I won with 500,000.

Breadcream

Haha I’ll give you credit for coming close to the number ON 4 July. I was hoping people would guess the highest number BY 4 July...hence the title of the thread.

LumberJack

Breadcream delivered! Haha good work. Congrats to Chazz.

LandGreen2

Havent you guys noticed that FACTS or TRUTHs no longer exist in our new post modern society