*MINIMUM BALANCES* New Polling Needed
12-22-2019, 05:31 PM
#41
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2008
Position: VEOP Retired! 7ER A was last position
Posts: 978
I wasn’t including the whole amount of the note and the claim. Only the 3 years or so of forced deposits which was about 125k, although ALPA was able to get legislation enacted to allow us to recover tax dollars on that money if deposited after the fact.
The assumptions assumed that the note/claim/mppp was added to a previous 401k balance to get to the 300k starting number. From 2006, I also excluded individual contributions which would drive the total number higher.
The assumptions were made using actual market performance (S&P 500), a pretty good number (30-36k average) for annual DC contributions, but an “inexact” starting number, which could inflate or deflate the ending balance.
I am open to different models and projections. That is the reason for the post.. to figure out what the “shortfall” is, or at least about what it should be on consistent metrics.
That is what makes this so complicated. A pilot who just put the money in a savings account is going to be nowhere close to 60%. A guy who invested in an S&P index fund, may be very close to 60 or even 100%. A guy who invested in WebVan may be living off of social security.
A lot of uneven outcomes. So how do we fairly fix this and based on what?
The assumptions assumed that the note/claim/mppp was added to a previous 401k balance to get to the 300k starting number. From 2006, I also excluded individual contributions which would drive the total number higher.
The assumptions were made using actual market performance (S&P 500), a pretty good number (30-36k average) for annual DC contributions, but an “inexact” starting number, which could inflate or deflate the ending balance.
I am open to different models and projections. That is the reason for the post.. to figure out what the “shortfall” is, or at least about what it should be on consistent metrics.
That is what makes this so complicated. A pilot who just put the money in a savings account is going to be nowhere close to 60%. A guy who invested in an S&P index fund, may be very close to 60 or even 100%. A guy who invested in WebVan may be living off of social security.
A lot of uneven outcomes. So how do we fairly fix this and based on what?
12-22-2019, 05:57 PM
#42
On Reserve
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 12
How about instead of focusing on what DZers May get in the next contract, we focus on what the total projected dollar amount new hires are going to receive.
Then let’s compare the two final amounts
The DZer vs any post BK new hire.
I’ll go out on a limb and say the results will be quite sobering for the DZers.
Then let’s compare the two final amounts
The DZer vs any post BK new hire.
I’ll go out on a limb and say the results will be quite sobering for the DZers.
12-22-2019, 06:07 PM
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: Captain
Posts: 830
[QUOTE=Cogf16;2943551]Fair assumptions and historical returns. What was lost (60% FAE retirement) and 42 % paycut, versus a 13-16% DC. In my mind, if we can "recoup" those losses for guys without the long career ahead of them, we should try.[/QUOTE
Recouping losses may be palatable to the pilot group (at least when it comes to retirement) but they are going to need to see a much more detailed proposal than what we have seen so far and much more of “how much and how did you arrive at that number?”
So assuming;
PBGC
Note (for south guys)
Frozen DB (north guys)
DC contributions
That really leaves the only variable.... whatever assumptions we are going to use for growth on those dollars since 2006.
Also, I lost my DB and took more than a 42% cut when you include the displacement(s).
Recouping losses may be palatable to the pilot group (at least when it comes to retirement) but they are going to need to see a much more detailed proposal than what we have seen so far and much more of “how much and how did you arrive at that number?”
So assuming;
PBGC
Note (for south guys)
Frozen DB (north guys)
DC contributions
That really leaves the only variable.... whatever assumptions we are going to use for growth on those dollars since 2006.
Also, I lost my DB and took more than a 42% cut when you include the displacement(s).
12-22-2019, 06:17 PM
#44
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: Kickin’ Back
Posts: 6,971
How about instead of focusing on what DZers May get in the next contract, we focus on what the total projected dollar amount new hires are going to receive.
Then let’s compare the two final amounts
The DZer vs any post BK new hire.
I’ll go out on a limb and say the results will be quite sobering for the DZers.
Then let’s compare the two final amounts
The DZer vs any post BK new hire.
I’ll go out on a limb and say the results will be quite sobering for the DZers.
With a starting balance of $50,000 and $50,000 invested in a 401k for 30 years at an average 7% return yields a total of $5,488,244.04. Same numbers at 25 years yields a total of $3,661,029.58. This is using the Fidelity Compound App on my iPhone.
Considering I low-balled the investment to $50k a year instead of the actual amount that can be invested in a 401k every year right now........yes I would say these are pretty sobering numbers for the deadzoners who cannot even dream of touching these numbers......
Denny
12-22-2019, 06:23 PM
#45
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,660
Well here are some numbers for you.
With a starting balance of $50,000 and $50,000 invested in a 401k for 30 years at an average 7% return yields a total of $5,488,244.04. Same numbers at 25 years yields a total of $3,661,029.58. This is using the Fidelity Compound App on my iPhone.
Considering I low-balled the investment to $50k a year instead of the actual amount that can be invested in a 401k every year right now........yes I would say these are pretty sobering numbers for the deadzoners who cannot even dream of touching these numbers......
Denny
With a starting balance of $50,000 and $50,000 invested in a 401k for 30 years at an average 7% return yields a total of $5,488,244.04. Same numbers at 25 years yields a total of $3,661,029.58. This is using the Fidelity Compound App on my iPhone.
Considering I low-balled the investment to $50k a year instead of the actual amount that can be invested in a 401k every year right now........yes I would say these are pretty sobering numbers for the deadzoners who cannot even dream of touching these numbers......
Denny
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12-22-2019, 06:36 PM
#46
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: Kickin’ Back
Posts: 6,971
If you want to factor in inflation then at least use the current numbers allowed but you would also need to factor in any future increases in the investment allowed by the gubmint. Knock yourself out. Considering what I just said, I think my numbers are close enough in todays dollars if not low.
Denny
12-22-2019, 07:17 PM
#47
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,609
I figured since I didn't use the CURRENT max contribution amount of $56,000/year and also did not add in the CURRENT catchup contributions of $6,000/year at age 50 this would MORE than make up for any inflation.
If you want to factor in inflation then at least use the current numbers allowed but you would also need to factor in any future increases in the investment allowed by the gubmint. Knock yourself out. Considering what I just said, I think my numbers are close enough in todays dollars if not low.
Denny
If you want to factor in inflation then at least use the current numbers allowed but you would also need to factor in any future increases in the investment allowed by the gubmint. Knock yourself out. Considering what I just said, I think my numbers are close enough in todays dollars if not low.
Denny
12-22-2019, 07:49 PM
#48
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Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: Kickin’ Back
Posts: 6,971
I would have thought you could figure out that we are talking about the NN. Under the NN proposal there won't be a need for personal contributions. But then if you want to remove personal contributions from the mix you need to subtract ALL the contributions made by all the DZr's and that will about halve their 401k's. As far as the 50k initial starting balance.......do you have less than 50k or more than 50k? Any one who has been here a couple of years should have more than that.
All the assumptions I used are waaaaay less than they should be. Guess what.......I just changed the assumed starting balance to $1,000 and the 30 year number is $5,090,515.67. Still well over 5 million dollars.........
You just don't get it. A 25% DC would be HUGE for you young guys and you're beyotching about the senior guys getting a "windfall." I think the windfall is purely in your (the young guys) court.
Denny
12-22-2019, 08:10 PM
#49
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: Kickin’ Back
Posts: 6,971
Do you really think inflation is going to be more than that?
Denny
12-22-2019, 08:16 PM
#50
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Posts: 5,042
Are you kidding me!?! Can't stand the truth can you?
I would have thought you could figure out that we are talking about the NN. Under the NN proposal there won't be a need for personal contributions. But then if you want to remove personal contributions from the mix you need to subtract ALL the contributions made by all the DZr's and that will about halve their 401k's. As far as the 50k initial starting balance.......do you have less than 50k or more than 50k? Any one who has been here a couple of years should have more than that.
All the assumptions I used are waaaaay less than they should be. Guess what.......I just changed the assumed starting balance to $1,000 and the 30 year number is $5,090,515.67. Still well over 5 million dollars.........
You just don't get it. A 25% DC would be HUGE for you young guys and you're beyotching about the senior guys getting a "windfall." I think the windfall is purely in your (the young guys) court.
Denny
I would have thought you could figure out that we are talking about the NN. Under the NN proposal there won't be a need for personal contributions. But then if you want to remove personal contributions from the mix you need to subtract ALL the contributions made by all the DZr's and that will about halve their 401k's. As far as the 50k initial starting balance.......do you have less than 50k or more than 50k? Any one who has been here a couple of years should have more than that.
All the assumptions I used are waaaaay less than they should be. Guess what.......I just changed the assumed starting balance to $1,000 and the 30 year number is $5,090,515.67. Still well over 5 million dollars.........
You just don't get it. A 25% DC would be HUGE for you young guys and you're beyotching about the senior guys getting a "windfall." I think the windfall is purely in your (the young guys) court.
Denny
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