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Old 10-27-2019, 05:35 AM
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
Just curious why the increase in summer narrow body block hours would impact wide body bids?
Narrow body captains have to come from somewhere. And aren't we being bombarded with "good" widebody news? More BOS, more A339s, more Pacific etc. Retirements and all this expansion will require widebody positions, right? When I'm in the seat maybe I'll believe it. This all sounds like expectation building so we sign a deal or it all magically goes away. Kinda like the 717s, 737s and E190s, you get the point. Now they have to up the ante to widebody positions because the 7ER needs replacing and well, SJS doesn't really work on this group because we have seen it before and know our narrowbody orders are pretty much set.
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Old 10-27-2019, 05:48 AM
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Originally Posted by notEnuf
Narrow body captains have to come from somewhere. And aren't we being bombarded with "good" widebody news? More BOS, more A339s, more Pacific etc. Retirements and all this expansion will require widebody positions, right? When I'm in the seat maybe I'll believe it. This all sounds like expectation building so we sign a deal or it all magically goes away. Kinda like the 717s, 737s and E190s, you get the point. Now they have to up the ante to widebody positions because the 7ER needs replacing and well, SJS doesn't really work on this group because we have seen it before and know our narrowbody orders are pretty much set.
Here we go again, we sign the deal and it magically goes away. Sounds like your statements on contract 2012. Sure would have been nice if we had gotten those 717’s!
First there are significant penalties to the company canceling bids. Second this bid will be out next month. We will still be talking about the seniority and relocation sections of the contract at that point. Every pilot on this bid will be trained and converted before we have a signed and ratified contract.
Like many of your posts you know all of the above. You are just hoping some of your audience does not.
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Old 10-27-2019, 06:05 AM
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
Here we go again, we sign the deal and it magically goes away. Sounds like your statements on contract 2012. Sure would have been nice if we had gotten those 717’s!
First there are significant penalties to the company canceling bids. Second this bid will be out next month. We will still be talking about the seniority and relocation sections of the contract at that point. Every pilot on this bid will be trained and converted before we have a signed and ratified contract.
Like many of your posts you know all of the above. You are just hoping some of your audience does not.
This bid will happen. My response was to your question about why it would affect WB positions. There's a lot of hype about WBs and international right now. How could this bid not affect WB positions. My additionasl point about the contract carrot/stick is also related to WBs but yes, in the distant future.
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Old 10-27-2019, 06:32 AM
  #514  
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Originally Posted by notEnuf
This bid will happen. My response was to your question about why it would affect WB positions. There's a lot of hype about WBs and international right now. How could this bid not affect WB positions. My additionasl point about the contract carrot/stick is also related to WBs but yes, in the distant future.
How many mandatory retirements do we have coming in 2020? Plus deliveries? I’m not a rah rah rah type person but just the simple numbers of retirements and deliveries show there will movement all over. And 2020 is just the beginning. But like others have said, when we are in the seat I’ll believe it.
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Old 10-27-2019, 06:40 AM
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Originally Posted by fishforfun
How many mandatory retirements do we have coming in 2020? Plus deliveries? I’m not a rah rah rah type person but just the simple numbers of retirements and deliveries show there will movement all over. And 2020 is just the beginning. But like others have said, when we are in the seat I’ll believe it.

511 mandatory retirements in 2020 as of this month's projected retirements list.


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Old 10-27-2019, 06:53 AM
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Originally Posted by GuardPolice
511 mandatory retirements in 2020 as of this month's projected retirements list.


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Plus 20%? Isn’t that the average early outs as well? So 600ish leaving plus deliveries. That’s some decent moving from mostly the A side whether it’s widebodies or not.
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Old 10-27-2019, 07:10 AM
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Originally Posted by fishforfun
Plus 20%? Isn’t that the average early outs as well? So 600ish leaving plus deliveries. That’s some decent moving from mostly the A side whether it’s widebodies or not.
2018 was an extra 33%

353 planned, 473 actual.


For 2019, 448 planned and we have 421 actual through Oct (averaging 42/month).

421+84 (Nov and Dec) would be 505 actual, so approx 13% above planned.

Last edited by DWC CAP10 USAF; 10-27-2019 at 07:13 AM. Reason: add 2019 numbers
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Old 10-27-2019, 07:12 AM
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Originally Posted by fishforfun
Plus 20%? Isn’t that the average early outs as well? So 600ish leaving plus deliveries. That’s some decent moving from mostly the A side whether it’s widebodies or not.
What’s the latest number on hiring next year? 1300? 600 off the top and 1300 on the bottom would be a nice year if that came true.
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Old 10-27-2019, 07:17 AM
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Originally Posted by BigHitterLlama
What’s the latest number on hiring next year? 1300? 600 off the top and 1300 on the bottom would be a nice year if that came true.
From reading the tea leaves of CR newsletters and APC RUMINT, here is my best guess math.

80/month for Oct-Dec 2019 = 240 total

125/month for Jan-May 2020 (prep for summer of 2020 Ops) = 625 total

90/month Jun-Dec 2020 = 635 total

Grand total 1500 by end of 2020.
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Old 10-27-2019, 08:09 AM
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Originally Posted by DWC CAP10 USAF
From reading the tea leaves of CR newsletters and APC RUMINT, here is my best guess math.

80/month for Oct-Dec 2019 = 240 total

125/month for Jan-May 2020 (prep for summer of 2020 Ops) = 625 total

90/month Jun-Dec 2020 = 635 total

Grand total 1500 by end of 2020.
1500 was the number I was told by a fleet captain and I believe they were talking the end of 2019 and all of 2020. So it jives, if you think that's the word, or jibes if you know the right word.
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