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Old 10-23-2019, 06:21 AM
  #391  
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Originally Posted by mainlineAF
How do you know what the weather is going to be like next summer?
I don't. That why I did not state in absolutes. But using probability analysis it's not unreasonable to believe the weather won't be that bad(rolling Thunderstorms across multiple hubs) two summers in a row

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Old 10-23-2019, 06:24 AM
  #392  
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Originally Posted by Rooster435
The latest 717 newsletter talked about a Dec/Jan AE for a Minny base. Seems unlikely they would have a Nov/Dec AE and a Dec/Jan AE.
You never know...
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Old 10-23-2019, 06:45 AM
  #393  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
I don't. That why I did not state in absolutes. But using probability analysis it's not unreasonable to believe the weather won't be that bad(rolling Thunderstorms across multiple hubs) two summers in a row

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Incredible.

The eastern US won't have thunderstorms that hit both ATL and the northeast.

From May to September.

Read his quote again, folks.

Stunning.
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Old 10-23-2019, 06:49 AM
  #394  
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Originally Posted by contrails
Incredible.

The eastern US won't have thunderstorms that hit both ATL and the northeast.

From May to September.

Read his quote again, folks.

Stunning.

Ok. This is a bit unreasonable. Trip is not saying there won’t be T-storms. He is merely stating that in his humble opinion, the way the storms set up this year dealt Delta a very bad hand and that this hand was worse than usual. It is therefore not unreasonable to expect that next year the setup of the Tstorms won’t impact us as much.
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Old 10-23-2019, 06:49 AM
  #395  
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Originally Posted by contrails
Incredible.

The eastern US won't have thunderstorms that hit both ATL and the northeast.

From May to September.

Read his quote again, folks.

Stunning.
And we won’t be short again next summer.

You heard it here first.
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Old 10-23-2019, 06:58 AM
  #396  
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Originally Posted by FogSkier
Ok. This is a bit unreasonable. Trip is not saying there won’t be T-storms. He is merely stating that in his humble opinion, the way the storms set up this year dealt Delta a very bad hand and that this hand was worse than usual. It is therefore not unreasonable to expect that next year the setup of the Tstorms won’t impact us as much.
Except that there was nothing unusually bad about this summer's weather.

Every summer, they move across the hubs. No exceptions!
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Old 10-23-2019, 07:03 AM
  #397  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
3. No JFK runway construction allowing much more efficient use of airspace
People on GS#8 in ATL and DTW has nothing to do with a runway being OTS in JFK.

The staffing was ridiculously short in several categories, plain and simple.

Here's something that will cancel out the theorized things that won't happen next summer: increased awareness of IVDs.

Lots of people who perk up and say "I didn't know about those..." when they're asking about any ideas to drop or swap a trip.

IVDs have got to be creating quite a few GS as trips appear in open time days in advance despite less than blue coverage.
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Old 10-23-2019, 07:08 AM
  #398  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
I think alot of people are going to be surprised next summer when there aren't nearly as many Greenslips and the pace is significantly reduced.

Reasons:

1. No unexpected 3% increase in flying above planned

2. More balanced staffing in regards to fleets/bases

3. No JFK runway construction allowing much more efficient use of airspace

4. The thunderstorms will probably not be as bad

5. The fleets that struggled the most with staffing this summer have a high amount of training capacity (73N/320)

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1. The impression I get is that the 3% increase from last summer is not going away. Didn’t Ed Say that (paraphrasing) he expects we will keep most of the customers we got because of the Max debacle? So yes, I don’t think we will see another increase of 3%. Still gotta staff correctly for the first one...

2. This will require a lot of movement/staffing increases. I would think more frequent AE’s would help with the balancing. With all the projected retirements we needed to start hiring big time a while ago. The company has finally figured that out. Let’s hope they can catch up to where we need to be. I have my doubts. On a side note, I wonder if any of this staffing issue is Contract related in that they can plead we don’t have the staffing to negotiate another week of vacation etc.

3. Agreed

4. This one I would have probably left out because it can go either way.

5. That’s a good thing........but it all boils down to proper manning of categories and based on their past prowess at this, I have my doubt they will get it right. Let’s hobe they do.

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Old 10-23-2019, 07:18 AM
  #399  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
I think alot of people are going to be surprised next summer when there aren't nearly as many Greenslips and the pace is significantly reduced.

Reasons:

1. No unexpected 3% increase in flying above planned

2. More balanced staffing in regards to fleets/bases

3. No JFK runway construction allowing much more efficient use of airspace

4. The thunderstorms will probably not be as bad

5. The fleets that struggled the most with staffing this summer have a high amount of training capacity (73N/320)

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2. From what I am seeing there is no plan to balance NYC 320 A vs B. We will land about 40-60 Bs short again.

3. Has this really had much of an impact or did our poor staffing plan just compound any issues that may have come from the construction?

4. Seriously?

We made some terrible decisions with staffing and rotation construction (elimination of credit/shortened layovers). Credit reduction is just as addictive to the company as green slips are to pilots. Once you get a taste there is no going back. They apologized for this summer but I attribute the pain felt like child birth, once you see that baby (quarterly and EoY profits) all will be forgotten and we will be right back in the same boat.
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Old 10-23-2019, 07:25 AM
  #400  
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Bring it on.
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