Xray678

100 797’s?? Never gonna happen. If Boeing actually builds them (big if, more likely they build a 737-11 before we see a 797) and if we order them .......I bet it’s no more than 30 with options for another 30.

forgot to bid

I think I read that our purchase saves all the airlines money because it reduces the crack spread. But. Had we not done it nobody would have done it.

And it makes money. So it's good so far. But time will tell. At least it's better than fuel hedging.

qball

It came at a bargain price.

BobZ

I would guess now delta can dump a ton into it and expense it in the same year.

747Flyer

No 737-11 - Boeing's short landing gear has finally caught up with them. Go back to 1965 when Douglas built the "Super 60's DC-8's" - Delta was the launch customer - the 707 couldn't be stretched because of its short landing gear. Boeing was doomed to repeat itself on the 737. Ed Wells was the 707 designer and wished he hadn't made the gear so short that it couldn't be stretched...(it was short for weight savings). The DC-8 had longer gear and a wider fuselage. 6 abreast on a -8 was comfortable.

Who would have dreamed that the 1965 737-100/200, over three years, from 1970 through 1972, only delivered 88 aircraft – roughly equivalent to seven weeks of production at today’s rate (57 A/C PER MONTH). Boeing was delivering every 707-320 and 727-200 they could make - they considered cancelling the 737!

So let me understand this...we have 80 or so 767's and 100+ 757s (200's and 300's). But we are only going to buy 60 797's to replace them?

I'm not so sure. If we are buying 130 737-900s and 200+ A321's (CEO's and NEO's) to replace 165 MD-88/90's and early A-319/320's, and CS-100/300's to allow 76 seat RJs to replace 50 seat RJs, what is going to replace the 767's and 757's...I'm not sure how only 30 797's fits.

Xray678

I was kidding about a 737-11, though I was kidding years ago when I suggested they would build a 737-1000.

We have orders for 100 321NEOs, with options for another 100. I predict many of the options will be taken up and eventually converted to the LR version, which pretty much covers 98% of what a 757 can do. Also we have 25 330 NEOs on order to replace early 767s, and I think we will end up buying more. The Network folks seem pretty high on the 330 NEO, and from what I have read, the data from flight test is showing inline with predictions if not a little better. Further, I predict we will at some point order the 787. Huge numbers...no. But I think we will order some (787-9 or 10 replace the 777)

Might we end up with more 797s? Maybe. But I stand by my prediction......for an initial order we will not go more than 30 with the same number of options. Which gives us the option of up to 60 aircraft. You really think it will go higher than that??

Will be interesting to revisit this in a couple of years, but I think I will be pretty close.

forgot to bid

I think there has been a lot of double speak about what airplanes are being bought to replace going back to the original 739 order that it's not worth analyzing.

After all, if the 321 is to suddenly be for 88 replacement then why is it doing 757 routes from ATL to LAX/SAN/SFO/LAS/PHX and all the MCO and FLL type flying. And if the CS100 is for 76 a seat replacement why is it initially replacing 717s that are not exiting the fleet for 2 decades or so?

I think they have a plan to upgauge and there is stuff that goes according to plan, stuff they make mistakes on but will never admit it and stuff they get lucky on. I think it's just going to be different then what we know.

As to the CS300, I don't see that happening if we are trying to buy 797s.

sailingfun

The A321 is doing plenty of ex MD routes. It soon will own the N/S stuff from FL. The CS300 and 797 are totally different sized airframes. I doubt the decision to purchase one influences the purchase of the other.

forgot to bid

It's doing MD routes that the 757 also did if that's what you mean. You may or may not know there is a good bit of crossover on the domestic side on shorter routes.

But I never flew the 88 from ATL to SAN.

As to the CS300 and 797, if DAL wants to be the first 797 customer i doubt Boeing would make that happen if at the same time they're poking Boeing in the eye with a stick. After all F18s and CS100s are not the same size and you see how that worked out in Canada.

qball

Early slow sales of the 737 might have had much to do with the 3 man crew controversy that went on for some time.