Fox News: surge in new cases
10-17-2020, 11:31 AM
#71
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Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Baja Vermont
Posts: 5,186
We have moved the goalposts—it’s some version of lockdown until the vaccine arrives.
10-17-2020, 12:07 PM
#72
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Joined APC: Mar 2016
Position: Here and there
Posts: 1,906
10-17-2020, 01:15 PM
#73
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Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 977
Its shocking to see the level of uneducated/unstudied/unconsidered level of numbers analysis alone in a thread that is supposedly dedicated to technically minded people. 2 months ago I did a study of death numbers in the US and at that time concluded that there were probably about 12,000 actual american deaths due to Corona. This was when there were I think on the order of 160,000 deaths being reported.....a month later the CDC refined its number accounting to say that about 96% of these reported deaths had significant co-morbidity. I think it was 3 additional morbidities. Its still there on their site if anyone is actually interested in understanding the truth. Applying their directive at the time using their numbers resulted in about 9500 actual deaths. On my own a month earlier I determined it was 12,000. 30,000 die each year of the seasonal flu. We count the seasons for respiratory disease from May to May. In order to get a good comparison that should have been done with Corona. Why hasn’t it? Go turn on any news station right now. The numbers haven’t been reset. They simply get bigger. And they give the viewer a false window into reality. A cloudy and getting cloudier reality. I don’t like being lied to or deceived on purpose.
The truth is evident in swine flu numbers from 10 years ago. Do your own research. 1.4 billion got it. Later studied estimates put the death toll at 500-600,000. WE DID NOTHING AND WERE FINE. Corona has 38 million infected worldwide and this isn’t even a true look because for appropriate comparison purposes we have been in year 2 of corona SINCE MAY. Are you all even interested in truth??
Just in the US there are between 30-50 million annually infected with seasonal flu. 30,000 die. What are we at on corona total? Some 8 million? And about 10,000 actual deaths. And likewise this ISN’T a true look at reality because we have been in year 2 of Corona now since May. All of these ongoing number counters should have been reset in May. That is IF we as a society were interested in truth and an HONEST comparison. OBVIOUSLY we are not.
Regarding the flight attendant I personally witnessed. A commenter asked might it have been caused by something else..../of course. I don’t know for sure. But I highly doubt you can have a seizure disorder as a crewmember and the circumstances prior were as I described. And after study on the effects of mask wearing-freely available en masse to whom ever has interest in TRUTH-that could have logically, reasonably and scientifically been the result. Doctors and nurses don’t wear masks for 16 hours a day day in and day out either. People are wearing these useless devices in the virus context wayyyyyyyy too much. I wouldnt be surprised to learn that millennials are actually sleeping in them. Thats not meant as a joke. Those in my family in medical fields are now REQUIRED to wear masks designed to prevent the wearer from getting infected by BACTERIA for the purpose of preventing viral infection. They all report repeated headaches, rashes, infections, etc. They are not designed for the purpose we are being told. Sweden has never locked down or mandated masks and they have no statistical abnormality with regard to corona virus.
People....YOU CAN GET INFECTED THROUGH YOUR EYES! Even if you choose to make yourself feel good by wearing a mask, if you are close enough to think you might get infected in your mouth or nose ITS GOING IN YOUR EYES. You are going to get infected ANYWAY. Its also going on your clothes and hair and face and neck and YOU WILL touch it and IT WILL ultimately get into your system.
Using logic, reason, and science and with an interest in truth only, I have personally come to the conclusion that this Corona virus is no more infectious or lethal than an average flu. It might even be LESS SO. Using the same factors I have also concluded that masks are totally useless.
I am older. I have already had this virus. I was sick with minor flu symptoms for a few days. I have been wayyyyyy sicker in the past!! I wasn’t concerned before I got it, I wasn’t concerned while I had it and I am not concerned now. I fully expect at some point in the future I will get another cold or flu. Probably multiple times. And I will carry on with my life....as normal.
Wash your hands. THAT WORKS.
The truth is evident in swine flu numbers from 10 years ago. Do your own research. 1.4 billion got it. Later studied estimates put the death toll at 500-600,000. WE DID NOTHING AND WERE FINE. Corona has 38 million infected worldwide and this isn’t even a true look because for appropriate comparison purposes we have been in year 2 of corona SINCE MAY. Are you all even interested in truth??
Just in the US there are between 30-50 million annually infected with seasonal flu. 30,000 die. What are we at on corona total? Some 8 million? And about 10,000 actual deaths. And likewise this ISN’T a true look at reality because we have been in year 2 of Corona now since May. All of these ongoing number counters should have been reset in May. That is IF we as a society were interested in truth and an HONEST comparison. OBVIOUSLY we are not.
Regarding the flight attendant I personally witnessed. A commenter asked might it have been caused by something else..../of course. I don’t know for sure. But I highly doubt you can have a seizure disorder as a crewmember and the circumstances prior were as I described. And after study on the effects of mask wearing-freely available en masse to whom ever has interest in TRUTH-that could have logically, reasonably and scientifically been the result. Doctors and nurses don’t wear masks for 16 hours a day day in and day out either. People are wearing these useless devices in the virus context wayyyyyyyy too much. I wouldnt be surprised to learn that millennials are actually sleeping in them. Thats not meant as a joke. Those in my family in medical fields are now REQUIRED to wear masks designed to prevent the wearer from getting infected by BACTERIA for the purpose of preventing viral infection. They all report repeated headaches, rashes, infections, etc. They are not designed for the purpose we are being told. Sweden has never locked down or mandated masks and they have no statistical abnormality with regard to corona virus.
People....YOU CAN GET INFECTED THROUGH YOUR EYES! Even if you choose to make yourself feel good by wearing a mask, if you are close enough to think you might get infected in your mouth or nose ITS GOING IN YOUR EYES. You are going to get infected ANYWAY. Its also going on your clothes and hair and face and neck and YOU WILL touch it and IT WILL ultimately get into your system.
Using logic, reason, and science and with an interest in truth only, I have personally come to the conclusion that this Corona virus is no more infectious or lethal than an average flu. It might even be LESS SO. Using the same factors I have also concluded that masks are totally useless.
I am older. I have already had this virus. I was sick with minor flu symptoms for a few days. I have been wayyyyyy sicker in the past!! I wasn’t concerned before I got it, I wasn’t concerned while I had it and I am not concerned now. I fully expect at some point in the future I will get another cold or flu. Probably multiple times. And I will carry on with my life....as normal.
Wash your hands. THAT WORKS.
I have seen plenty of research literature showing spiked ramp-ups in the “average daily deaths” recorded in the US, relative to trailing averages, being used to justify panic and claims that this is indicative of a massive human tragedy and loss of life. However I have seen zero caveats in any of these narratives contemplating the possibility that the same exact daily average death metrics (from all causes) might very well dip over the following 12 months, and stabilize around historical average trendlines.
Put another way: if a million Americans die of heart disease + cancer + old age in an average year, and there is a significant overlap between the patient population of COVID victims and the pool of patients likely to die of heart disease, age, or cancer in the following 12 months anyways, your trailing all-cause 12-month daily average will actually (eventually) dip below the predicted trendline, and settle around the long-term average.
It is very possible (and probable from every stat I have seen) that almost every single person dying in sole or in part due to COVID was bound to die anyways in the following 12 month period: as in, COVID just happened to be the chamber with the bullet in it in an ongoing game of Russian roulette.
I understand human beings are very bad at putting their emotions aside when it comes to saying goodbye to their loved ones, even a month “too soon”, and that the ethical codes of medical professionals have sort of framed their thinking towards minimizing loss of individual lives and providing every patient every single additional day on the planet they can. However, that combination of moral/emotional/ethical framing has absolutely biased the way many politicians, scientists, and public health officials have approached this virus.
We need more behavioral economists and decision-support scientists at the table with all the medical professionals. All I’m saying.
10-18-2020, 09:15 AM
#78
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,030
This^^^^^
A certain segment of the population has over exaggerated the need to save everyone for political gain.
In Colorado, the elderly in a nursing home/Care facility held a protest to NOT be isolated... They stated they rather catch Covid (and its possible outcome) being surrounded by loved ones and their grandkids (being able to hug them etc) VS.. being isolated.. (to what? live for an extra 6 months or a year alone?)
A certain segment of the population has over exaggerated the need to save everyone for political gain.
In Colorado, the elderly in a nursing home/Care facility held a protest to NOT be isolated... They stated they rather catch Covid (and its possible outcome) being surrounded by loved ones and their grandkids (being able to hug them etc) VS.. being isolated.. (to what? live for an extra 6 months or a year alone?)
This is a complete distortion of reality. They’re not saying they’d rather die than not be able to touch their loved ones. They just don’t want to be socially distant. Nowhere in the story does it state elderly should die or are ok with dying because they only have 6 or 12 months left, those are just the voices in your head. They do want to keep living so they can see their families and grand kids.
Last edited by Knobcrk1; 10-18-2020 at 09:31 AM.
10-18-2020, 09:19 AM
#79
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,030
Looking at the graph the case numbers would have to be a bit higher for deaths to be rising. The cases have been on a steady rise the last few weeks. Let’s hope the deaths do stay lower though. The predictions are up to 400k dead by January.
10-18-2020, 09:27 AM
#80
The NeverEnding Story
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,564
Per those Worldometers charts, the 7-day average low of new daily cases was 12 Sept and the 'wave' has been building since to a 7-day average on 17 Oct more than 20k higher than 12 Sept. Despite that, the 7-day average of daily deaths during that same interval decreased from 758 to 702.
From 1 Oct to 17 Oct, which is further along in the 'wave' and reflects a greater than 14 day period, the 7-day average of new cases has increased more than 12k, but average daily deaths have still decreased from 730 to 702.
Again per Worldometers, the Case Fatality Ratio in the US was 3.30% on 1 Aug, 3.00% on 1 Sept, 2.83% on 1 Oct, and 2.69% on 17 Oct.
Will we see an increase in total deaths in the coming weeks? IMO, that's likely. Will it mirror the wave of infections? The data trends say nothing close.
But WHY?
Likely a combination of increased capture of asymptomatic and very mild disease from increased testing, younger average age of confirmed positive case, and better/earlier treatments for moderate and severe disease.
From 1 Oct to 17 Oct, which is further along in the 'wave' and reflects a greater than 14 day period, the 7-day average of new cases has increased more than 12k, but average daily deaths have still decreased from 730 to 702.
Again per Worldometers, the Case Fatality Ratio in the US was 3.30% on 1 Aug, 3.00% on 1 Sept, 2.83% on 1 Oct, and 2.69% on 17 Oct.
Will we see an increase in total deaths in the coming weeks? IMO, that's likely. Will it mirror the wave of infections? The data trends say nothing close.
But WHY?
Likely a combination of increased capture of asymptomatic and very mild disease from increased testing, younger average age of confirmed positive case, and better/earlier treatments for moderate and severe disease.
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