Fox News: surge in new cases
10-18-2020, 05:34 PM
#91
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Yep that was in June or July I think. The perception of what is happening is wildly off base and is the biggest thing we as a population must overcome.
10-18-2020, 06:01 PM
#92
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10-19-2020, 05:50 PM
#95
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Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 365
Looking at the chart, that may not be surprising...especially if we're talking about a Simple Moving Average. Disregarding March/April/May data (before testing ramped up), it appears cases reached a trough somewhere between Jun 6th and Jun 14th. Deaths started their upward trajectory on Jul 08. It looks like (more recently) cases either started up between Sep 10th and 18th (unless the dip there was an aberration) or at the very latest by Sep 26th.
If the September 10-18 trough is a trough, then we should see an uptick in the next few days if it's going to happen. If it's some quirk of the data, we'll see it in the next week or so. Either way, we'll probably soon know if death rates are truly decreasing and/or if therapeutics are beginning to help. It's not unusual for it to take over a month from diagnosis to death - Herman Cain is a rather famous example, but certainly far from the only one.
I, for one, hope that the disease is either becoming less virulent as it circulates or therapeutics are beginning to help.
If the September 10-18 trough is a trough, then we should see an uptick in the next few days if it's going to happen. If it's some quirk of the data, we'll see it in the next week or so. Either way, we'll probably soon know if death rates are truly decreasing and/or if therapeutics are beginning to help. It's not unusual for it to take over a month from diagnosis to death - Herman Cain is a rather famous example, but certainly far from the only one.
I, for one, hope that the disease is either becoming less virulent as it circulates or therapeutics are beginning to help.
10-20-2020, 02:57 AM
#97
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Joined APC: Jan 2017
Position: Pilot
Posts: 523
Looking at the chart, that may not be surprising...especially if we're talking about a Simple Moving Average. Disregarding March/April/May data (before testing ramped up), it appears cases reached a trough somewhere between Jun 6th and Jun 14th. Deaths started their upward trajectory on Jul 08. It looks like (more recently) cases either started up between Sep 10th and 18th (unless the dip there was an aberration) or at the very latest by Sep 26th.
If the September 10-18 trough is a trough, then we should see an uptick in the next few days if it's going to happen. If it's some quirk of the data, we'll see it in the next week or so. Either way, we'll probably soon know if death rates are truly decreasing and/or if therapeutics are beginning to help. It's not unusual for it to take over a month from diagnosis to death - Herman Cain is a rather famous example, but certainly far from the only one.
I, for one, hope that the disease is either becoming less virulent as it circulates or therapeutics are beginning to help.
If the September 10-18 trough is a trough, then we should see an uptick in the next few days if it's going to happen. If it's some quirk of the data, we'll see it in the next week or so. Either way, we'll probably soon know if death rates are truly decreasing and/or if therapeutics are beginning to help. It's not unusual for it to take over a month from diagnosis to death - Herman Cain is a rather famous example, but certainly far from the only one.
I, for one, hope that the disease is either becoming less virulent as it circulates or therapeutics are beginning to help.
Spain is the worst case scenario as of now and they are averaging 150 deaths per day from COVID (approximately), during the peak of the pandemic in the Spring they were averaging 800 deaths per day.
Spain has approximately 47,000,000 population.
It’s difficult for me to trust epidemiologists like Fauci and Osterholm, their emotional based arguments used to perpetuate fear. Unless something is different in the US compared to Europe, a sudden increase in cases here will not result in the same increase in COVID death.
Numbers are better at understanding reality of the disease compared to fear and egos.
10-20-2020, 05:45 AM
#99
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Joined APC: Jan 2017
Position: Pilot
Posts: 523
Wow, The New York Times reported science and reality? But, that doesn’t fit with their agenda at all?
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