Will airlines force employees get vaccine??
12-03-2020, 07:51 AM
#281
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,382
Our mgmt (B6) has been advocating for some kind of standardized “health” passport that all airlines would use. It would show either a vaccine OR a recent negative test. This makes sense to me. Antibody tests makes sense too but it’d have to have some recency and so not sure that would work.
For overseas travel it's almost certainly going to be a vaccine passport. There's no political local blowback for requiring inbound aliens to be vaccinated, that's already a thing in many places.
Anti-body status probably won't be useful. With a vaccine they know that (to a statistically sufficient degree) you got a good enough immune response and how long that lasts before you need a booster. Naturally acquired immunity would not be as consistent or predictable as vaccine immunity.
12-03-2020, 04:07 PM
#282
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,240
12-03-2020, 05:04 PM
#283
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,382
"I" don't.
"They" obviously have a pretty good idea since this isn't the first vaccine in history. "They" will gather more empirical data as time passes, certainly by the time vaccine passports are in play. Since trials started in July-ish, they'll know if it's good for a year by next summer.
Hint: Immunity won't suddenly vanish in an instant, it will taper off gradually and presumably they're already looking at that in the early trial participants. So they should have at least an idea of the trajectory by now, and have extrapolated that. If it faded quickly, I'm nearly certain we'd have heard by now; no news is actually good news.
With natural antibodies you'll never know because there's typically more individual variation.
"They" obviously have a pretty good idea since this isn't the first vaccine in history. "They" will gather more empirical data as time passes, certainly by the time vaccine passports are in play. Since trials started in July-ish, they'll know if it's good for a year by next summer.
Hint: Immunity won't suddenly vanish in an instant, it will taper off gradually and presumably they're already looking at that in the early trial participants. So they should have at least an idea of the trajectory by now, and have extrapolated that. If it faded quickly, I'm nearly certain we'd have heard by now; no news is actually good news.
With natural antibodies you'll never know because there's typically more individual variation.
Last edited by rickair7777; 12-03-2020 at 06:18 PM.
12-03-2020, 06:42 PM
#284
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 534
An app based validation of vaccination OR a recent negative test makes a lot of sense, and I'm guessing that will be the standard for access to many things here in the US.
For overseas travel it's almost certainly going to be a vaccine passport. There's no political local blowback for requiring inbound aliens to be vaccinated, that's already a thing in many places.
For overseas travel it's almost certainly going to be a vaccine passport. There's no political local blowback for requiring inbound aliens to be vaccinated, that's already a thing in many places.
12-03-2020, 07:13 PM
#285
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,382
12-04-2020, 03:56 AM
#286
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,556
Thoughts on “vaccine”
An app based validation of vaccination OR a recent negative test makes a lot of sense, and I'm guessing that will be the standard for access to many things here in the US.
For overseas travel it's almost certainly going to be a vaccine passport. There's no political local blowback for requiring inbound aliens to be vaccinated, that's already a thing in many places.
Anti-body status probably won't be useful. With a vaccine they know that (to a statistically sufficient degree) you got a good enough immune response and how long that lasts before you need a booster. Naturally acquired immunity would not be as consistent or predictable as vaccine immunity.
For overseas travel it's almost certainly going to be a vaccine passport. There's no political local blowback for requiring inbound aliens to be vaccinated, that's already a thing in many places.
Anti-body status probably won't be useful. With a vaccine they know that (to a statistically sufficient degree) you got a good enough immune response and how long that lasts before you need a booster. Naturally acquired immunity would not be as consistent or predictable as vaccine immunity.
They don’t know your immune system response to a vaccine unless they then measure your antibodies.
Remember it’s 90% effective which is great but that means 10% dont.
There is no reason an antibodies test shouldn’t be enough and is actually BETTER!
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12-04-2020, 04:12 AM
#287
Gets Weekdays Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: Economy Minus
Posts: 1,053
An app based validation of vaccination OR a recent negative test makes a lot of sense, and I'm guessing that will be the standard for access to many things here in the US.
For overseas travel it's almost certainly going to be a vaccine passport. There's no political local blowback for requiring inbound aliens to be vaccinated, that's already a thing in many places.
Anti-body status probably won't be useful. With a vaccine they know that (to a statistically sufficient degree) you got a good enough immune response and how long that lasts before you need a booster. Naturally acquired immunity would not be as consistent or predictable as vaccine immunity.
For overseas travel it's almost certainly going to be a vaccine passport. There's no political local blowback for requiring inbound aliens to be vaccinated, that's already a thing in many places.
Anti-body status probably won't be useful. With a vaccine they know that (to a statistically sufficient degree) you got a good enough immune response and how long that lasts before you need a booster. Naturally acquired immunity would not be as consistent or predictable as vaccine immunity.
12-04-2020, 04:28 AM
#288
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,556
Serious question - do you see us needing that for any illness in the future? Whether we wish to face the reality or not, this is a virus that looks like (more and more) that it kills less than 1% of the population, particularly the aged and infirmed. it is not what we thought it was when it was coming out of China, but because we CANNOT seem to admit that we maybe overreacted, we keep this train going - OK, great, but where does this stop? do we require flu shot cards as well, to show we got our flu shots? What about really actually serious disease - do we start making people prove they are good there too?
This right here ^^^
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12-04-2020, 04:44 AM
#289
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,538
Serious question - do you see us needing that for any illness in the future? Whether we wish to face the reality or not, this is a virus that looks like (more and more) that it kills less than 1% of the population, particularly the aged and infirmed. it is not what we thought it was when it was coming out of China, but because we CANNOT seem to admit that we maybe overreacted, we keep this train going - OK, great, but where does this stop? do we require flu shot cards as well, to show we got our flu shots? What about really actually serious disease - do we start making people prove they are good there too?
Currently the total world Covid deaths as a percentage of the world population is 0.019%. That number is shrinking as deaths from Covid trail off and population growth is increasing.
12-04-2020, 07:16 AM
#290
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,382
Serious question - do you see us needing that for any illness in the future? Whether we wish to face the reality or not, this is a virus that looks like (more and more) that it kills less than 1% of the population, particularly the aged and infirmed. it is not what we thought it was when it was coming out of China, but because we CANNOT seem to admit that we maybe overreacted, we keep this train going - OK, great, but where does this stop? do we require flu shot cards as well, to show we got our flu shots? What about really actually serious disease - do we start making people prove they are good there too?
It's possible that once implemented this could evolve into a similar thing for the flu, because in some years flu is pretty bad and, if not equal to covid, some folks would draw a comparison.
While it may be legally or politically problematic to require vaccination of CURRENT employees, there's pretty clear precedent to require vaccination as a condition of NEW employment. You might see that for flu since employers have an incentive to reduce the lost productivity of a flu outbreak at the office. Don't like it? Don't apply.
We'll see how quickly the dust settles on all this, if it's over soon things might snap back to normal-ish.
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