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Old 12-07-2020, 07:00 PM
  #611  
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Originally Posted by Gordie H
Aww, the make pretend Dr. is back....lol
Feel free to not read any of my postings. Doesn’t bother me one iota.


Although if I were a religious guy you might use Matthew 7:6 to argue I shouldn’t be posting. Regrettably, I’m not particularly religious.
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Old 12-07-2020, 07:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
It is incorrect to treat herd immunity due to prior infection as something that has value only when a defined number is reached. ANY immunity, even if it doesn’t bring the replication rate below 1.0, is A factor in reducing spread. And while it is nonlinear, every immune person out there is one more person that can neither give nor get the disease. 16.6% immune due to prior infection is just as good as 16% immune due to vaccination from the standpoint of current risk. And we are going to be awhile getting to 16% immunized.
That's a good point. It'll be increasingly effective as immunities build up. Either through vaccination or exposure. But that will only effect the R number, not the survivability.
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Old 12-07-2020, 07:52 PM
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Relax, write whatever you want. I just can’t resist laughing when you act like an M.D. (because u aren't one)
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Old 12-08-2020, 06:53 AM
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Default It’s interesting that a number of countries..

...that have handled this very differently have gotten very similar results in terms of the RATE of deaths. Yes, we’ve had a lot of deaths, but we are the third most populous country after China and India and their stats are often sort of suspect for one reason or another. It makes you wonder how effective ANY of the lockdown schemes are.

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Old 12-08-2020, 06:57 AM
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Originally Posted by GateAgent007
That's a good point. It'll be increasingly effective as immunities build up. Either through vaccination or exposure. But that will only effect the R number, not the survivability.
Well, at least for the first nine months after initial infection which seems to be how long the immune globulins last. After that we will have to see if T-cell immunity from a previous infection makes a subsequent infection milder, worse, or no change. All three are possible, although the odds probably favor it actually INCREASING survivability since that is the case for most viruses.
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Old 12-08-2020, 07:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
...that have handled this very differently have gotten very similar results in terms of the RATE of deaths. Yes, we’ve had a lot of deaths, but we are the third most populous country after China and India and their stats are often sort of suspect for one reason or another. It makes you wonder how effective ANY of the lockdown schemes are.


What about the 180 or so other countries BELOW us? You’re picking numbers of the worst countries, not to mention half our states are doing worse than them! You underestimate that most citizens of other countries listen to their government unlike in the US. Ironically we probably have more restrictions than they do, difference is they follow mandates but we don’t. You’d have more infected if you didn’t lockdown and more deaths. You’d have twice, three times more deaths than those that locked down depending on how many got infected. Also the dead from overwhelmed hospitals which would have been fine had they got proper care., Look at your own numbers, we are doing very badly compared to the world. We’re beating Bosnia and San Marino, even Macedonia! A combined population of Indiana. Belgium is the worst due to their overwhelmed hospitals, which again if it wasn’t for lockdowns they would get worse.
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Old 12-08-2020, 08:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Knobcrk1
What about the 180 or so other countries BELOW us? You’re picking numbers of the worst countries, not to mention half our states are doing worse than them! You underestimate that most citizens of other countries listen to their government unlike in the US. Ironically we probably have more restrictions than they do, difference is they follow mandates but we don’t. You’d have more infected if you didn’t lockdown and more deaths. You’d have twice, three times more deaths than those that locked down depending on how many got infected. Also the dead from overwhelmed hospitals which would have been fine had they got proper care., Look at your own numbers, we are doing very badly compared to the world. We’re beating Bosnia and San Marino, even Macedonia! A combined population of Indiana. Belgium is the worst due to their overwhelmed hospitals, which again if it wasn’t for lockdowns they would get worse.
You are entitled to your opinion. My guess is that PhD theses in epidemiology will be debating these questions for the next decade. But 25 is a pretty big ‘n’, all that would fit in one screen grab and among countries similar to the US WITH RELIABLE STATISTICS there isn’t a huge difference. I mean do you truly trust the 60 total deaths Gabon is reporting With a rate of 27 deaths per million?
How about Benin with 44 cases and 4 deaths per million? How good a vital statistics department do you think a country with a gdp per capita of less than a thousand dollars has?
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Old 12-08-2020, 08:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
You are entitled to your opinion. My guess is that PhD theses in epidemiology will be debating these questions for the next decade. But 25 is a pretty big ‘n’, all that would fit in one screen grab and among countries similar to the US WITH RELIABLE STATISTICS there isn’t a huge difference. I mean do you truly trust the 60 total deaths Gabon is reporting With a rate of 27 deaths per million?
How about Benin with 44 cases and 4 deaths per million? How good a vital statistics department do you think a country with a gdp per capita of less than a thousand dollars has?
Look, big picture stuff, our problem is compliance and an unhealthy population. For those other “comparable” countries is just bad and overwhelmed healthcare. We could easily have had low numbers from the beginning if we were all on the same page and didn’t make this about right vs left and the election. I think we all have a chance now to correct it together and come out of this sooner than later. Only way we’re going to do that is if we all get on the same page.
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Old 12-08-2020, 08:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
You are entitled to your opinion. My guess is that PhD theses in epidemiology will be debating these questions for the next decade. But 25 is a pretty big ‘n’, all that would fit in one screen grab and among countries similar to the US WITH RELIABLE STATISTICS there isn’t a huge difference. I mean do you truly trust the 60 total deaths Gabon is reporting With a rate of 27 deaths per million?
How about Benin with 44 cases and 4 deaths per million? How good a vital statistics department do you think a country with a gdp per capita of less than a thousand dollars has?
Yes, the statistics on this thing are garbage, I expect to have a better idea as to what really happened in about five years.
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Old 12-08-2020, 02:48 PM
  #620  
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This excargo guy and mesaba need to get a room, pronto.
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