kingairfun

If the Biden guy wins, we'll all take a 20% hit.... That doesn't include making sure everyone is equal financially. The guy on the street corner will have a nicer IPhone than the rest of us.

My post wasn't to brag about financials, just to point out to Wutface that for all his doom and gloom, his "sky is falling and we all need to be scared" mantra isn't shared by everyone.

RJSAviator76

.... unless you have your money in cash.

kingairfun

I try not to play the timing game with retirement.. (only individual accounts)... I'll worry more about timing the market with retirement funds the last 10 years before retirement. Dollar cost average if the Biden guy wins. I'm gonna plan on 2030 and 2040 as our next big downturns.

Duffman

I'm not sure why you think Biden will cause a 20% hit. Statistically the economy has done better under Dems than GOP, although correlation is not causation (GOP has been very unlucky about being in office during major catastrophes):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterla.../#1274a72b239d
Point being, I don't see how Biden would be any worse for the stock market. Trump quantitatively eased 3/4 of an entire year's worth of the federal budget and we just lost 1/3 of the GDP; nobody knows what's going to happen. Fiscally, Trump is not conservative. Yes he cut taxes, but his proposed cuts didn't come close to covering the loss in revenue
https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020...ay-for-itself/
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/11/b...s-revenue.html
Trickle down probably works when taxes are 70% like they were in the 70s, but when the tax burden is 34% for the highest possible bracket, I think the effect is lost.

Regardless, I don't buy the argument that Trump is better for the economy. I get he is supportive of continuing airline payroll protection, but the Dems were the ones who "guaranteed labor protection" with the CARES act.
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/23/...n-airline-aid/
I think our budget is going to be effectively run like AOC's Modern Monetary Theory until this crisis is over, regardless of whose in office, and if we're lucky, the rest of the world will be so screwed up nobody will make a solid grab at our place as the world's reserve currency.

galaxy flyer

You might consider the effects of inflation on the future, even the recent past at 2% per year halves your retirement plan in 36 years.

tallpilot

I don’t believe he was suggesting to hold cash for 36 years. But like another person suggested earlier if you’d like to ride the market down 50% while ‘averaging in’ you are most welcome to. It might not be the worst idea though to note how poor long run average returns have been historically when valuations have reached these levels. Building up a little cash to deploy later wouldn’t hurt you very much even if things kept climbing to the moon.

Or just keep trusting the people who only make money if you stay fully invested. I am certain they have your best interests at heart with every bit of advice they give.

Phins2right

Courtesy of government shutdowns/lockdowns 100 million more people globally will sink into existing on a mere $1.90 per day.

This is from the World Bank with research conducted by the Pulitzer Center.

The second order effects are beginning to materialize. Third and forth order effects, such as the increase in suicide rates, business bankruptcies and rise in tuberculosis cases, are just now leading in to the fray. TB is a killer, unlike this cold bug. You get the strain of TB going on now, plan on a slow painful, agonizing suffocating death.

Hey, we gotta save grandma though.

galaxy flyer

I’m not disagreeing with that, just holding cash forever isn’t good. Trying to time the market is a fool’s errand, also.

Excargodog

...the curve.



I mean, Hawaii has done absolutely Draconian things, arresting people, putting GPS trackers on them, mandating two week quarantines on anyone flying even between the inter-island flying within the state.

And yeah, their numbers have stayed low, but that also means their numbers of susceptibles have stayed high. And that appears to be keeping the transmission rate up.

which brings up the question, if an effective vaccine that is acceptable to enough people to get to herd immunity can’t be developed and distributed fairly quickly, are we really saving people, or just stringing out the economic hit? Perhaps locking down the very at risk, and just letting the low risk people get this, might turn out to be the low risk option.

Knobcrk1

Yes because it’s that easy.

The “draconian” measures have nothing to do with anything. They tried to save their limited population, which they have.

Now as far as herd immunity, here we go again....

Who goes first? So you’re saying let kids get it, school children because it’s safe. Ok there’s mass infections, schools keep going even with sick kids left and right. What about the parents, friends and family that might be at risk? Right you’re saying somehow they’ll be sheltered as higher risk.

18 to 40 year olds? I guess they’re still safe. What about the fact that many are fat or obese? Probably some of the most unhealthy young population in the world. Or what about the fact that this population is occupying most of the hospitals now, even though technically they should be over it like the flu??


40 to 60? I guess they’re more at risk and according to your comment they should be sheltered anyways if someone’s at risk.

Lastly regarding the population, how in the world will you get these people to comply with segregated exposures? How do you know all these age groups aren’t still holding a big party in the neighborhood?


Also how come no actual immunologist that matters has advocated herd immunity?

And let’s assume that we do it your way. What about the danger of all the unknowns? Like will there actually be a heard immunity after killing all the people to get there. Will antibodies actually last. Will this disease that’s different from the flu damage this population?

Only way to battle this until the vaccine is available is to keep doing what we’re doing and making sure people follow the guidelines. The more we follow the quicker this will be over or manageable to the point where the vaccine can end it. I find it ironic that you are against the vaccine but are willing to kill off people. Your still posting that it won’t be here. Let the vaccine happen, give it a chance. No need to scour the internet for anti vaccine articles.