Excargodog

Some will, some won’t. I think it will depend on the business model and the fleet types. Even getting rid of the least efficient aircraft types cost money, since it forces you to spend money on retraining for aircrew - at least half of which will be pretty senior guys - which doesn’t just involve cost of sims and instructors but the non-productive downtime of those being trained. In the meantime you are dumping used aircraft and parts on a market that already has tons of used aircraft and parts from bankrupt overseas carriers, And every guy or gal you do furlough is raising your CASM, because they are all coming off the bottom end of the payscale.

I think it is unlikely we will get out of this without at least one Big Three bankruptcy. They won’t fold, just reorganize, but come out a lot smaller. It’s just too tempting for management to want to shed debt. When you are having to offer bonds at 12% to get them to sell and when Fitch rates you at B- (non investment grade junk bonds) with an outlook for downgrade that ain’t good. That doesn’t mean there is anything wrong with the people who work there, just that management policies have dug them a huge hole to climb out of, and bankruptcy is one of the tools they may use to do it.

kingairfun

I've only been in the industry 20 yrs, but one observation comes to mind....

No airline CEO has ever gotten staffing/demand forecasts correct after these "every 10 yr" downturns..

Economists, reporters, and so called "experts", are always quick to forecast how "things will never be the same", or " we'll be wearing masks for 5 yrs" or "in person business meetings are a thing of the past". All the same sh!t was predicted after 9/11, the recession and now this...

If it isn't apparent already (which you'd have to live under a rock to not see it) Zoom meetings are horrendous. The platform and connectivity is so bad I won't even do a "Zoom" meeting with 5 members of my own family. South Parks "Pandemic Special" episode even touched on how awful it is. Business travel will return. It's all a matter of trying to avoid litigation for businesses at this point.

This "social distanced" seating on airliners will be gone as soon as the airlines think they can fil the seats. It's all for "show" at this point.

Once the election is over ( no matter who wins), these States that impose strict lockdown scenarios will open up. The States with never ending Emergency Proclamations will let them expire in November (some have expirations that are right after the election, already in place)

By Summer 2021 We'll be in full rebound mode.

By Summer 2022 we'll look back and get a full picture of how absolutely ridiculous people reacted to this bullsh!t.

MCDUmanipulator

Worked 3 flights today. All 3 were oversold.

AZFlyer

Most of my flights recently have been at capacity as well. No complaints here.

crazyjaydawg

I agree with everything that you’ve said 100%.

Seneca Pilot

Three years after 9/11 passenger counts exceeded the previous high.

kingairfun

Absolutely... And the "experts" predicted business travel would never rebound post recession..

ShyGuy

Pax numbers were also rebounding in June until the increase in cases and then demand stalled out for July/August. Looks like we are starting the second wave now. Who knows how demand will react? I still think we're hosed for a long time to come. The Spanish flu (without vaccines in those days) lasted 2 years and had 4 waves. The timing seemed to be dead on with Covid19. The second wave starts now.

PilotPanda

Bahamasflyer

Comparing COVID-19 to the Spanish Flu is absurd.

The Spanish Flu happened while women were still barred from voting. The Spanish Flu happened when we used to lobotomize less than normally intelligent people. The Spanish Flu comparison is ridiculous. 100 yrs removed of ridiculousness. The best aircraft we had in 1918 were Curtiss Bi-planes. Last time I checked we have the ability to send probes to other planets. So putting the 1918 pandemic to a 2020 pandemic is crazy. 100+ years of innovation and technology.