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Old 10-10-2020, 06:30 AM
  #941  
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Quote: Originally Posted by senecacaptain [img]/images/buttons/viewpost.gif[/img]
if the rough average daily count from 2019 was 2.5M, and 1M represents 40% of 2.5M, and if we are seeing a 5% increase, each month, of 2020 numbers, and using 30% as the present monthly average, then it will take two months more to achieve 1M. October gets us to 35%, November gets us to 40%, or 1M.

Smack dab exactly on Thanksgiving.

This is just the pure math. Add in any additional boost due to Thanksgiving holidays and we will break 1M.

This assumes no uptick of the virus or panic attacks around the country.



Even with upticks in the virus we are getting there simply because even panic attacks can’t be sustained indefinitely. People are just starting to move on. You can’t stay scared indefinitely, the mind adapts and it becomes the new normal.
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Old 10-10-2020, 07:20 AM
  #942  
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Originally Posted by pangolin
No way we hit 1.5 mil that soon.
We would need the capacity on the right routes for that to happen.
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Old 10-10-2020, 07:39 AM
  #943  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog

Even with upticks in the virus we are getting there simply because even panic attacks can’t be sustained indefinitely. People are just starting to move on. You can’t stay scared indefinitely, the mind adapts and it becomes the new normal.
people move on until they don't move on. any severe upticks or spikes will result in the Karen's staying home all over again.
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Old 10-10-2020, 07:52 AM
  #944  
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Originally Posted by Seneca Pilot
We're basically at one million now. I will guess 1.2 for Thanksgiving. Maybe 1.3.
Agreed. Hoping for a steady 1.5 by next spring...possibly more with a successful vaccine.
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Old 10-10-2020, 11:04 AM
  #945  
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Originally Posted by Elismcpikle
Im thinking a good shot at 1mil Sunday with yesterday hitting 968545.
After seeing yesterdays number I'd like to change my prediction to this Sunday or next.
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Old 10-10-2020, 11:22 AM
  #946  
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Originally Posted by senecacaptain
people move on until they don't move on. any severe upticks or spikes will result in the Karen's staying home all over again.
Severe upticks or spikes of what? Cases? Deaths? CNN scare stories?

we are seeing more cases, but is that better case finding with more testing being done or what? Because there isn’t any correlated spike in deaths:



Is that better treatment? A shift in the pathogenicity of the virus? Are we simply running out of elderly people with so many comorbidities they always had one foot in the grave and the other on a wet cake of soap?

Thread drift alert...
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Old 10-10-2020, 01:20 PM
  #947  
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Originally Posted by senecacaptain
people move on until they don't move on. any severe upticks or spikes will result in the Karen's staying home all over again.
I disagree. Most people who were spooked enough to batten down the hatches in March/April (myself included) were afraid of the unknown. Was this airborne AIDS? Maybe it's being undersold to avoid public panic? But now we know what the deal is. We know how to mitigate our risk of getting it, we know how to treat it, we know who's vulnerable, and we know this isn't Black Plague 2.0. We don't know every little thing about this bug and won't for a long while...but I think we know enough to not be terrified again. I definitely don't want to catch it and will do my best to avoid it, but it's not going to impede my life anymore than I can help. I also don't want to be in a car wreck and I take measures to balance that risk with my life. Statistically I'd be safer if I stopped driving too...
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Old 10-10-2020, 01:56 PM
  #948  
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Originally Posted by Elismcpikle
Im thinking a good shot at 1mil Sunday with yesterday hitting 968545.
Im with you, 1 million Sunday, at worst sometime next week.
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Old 10-10-2020, 02:13 PM
  #949  
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Also remember that most state quarantine list BS is predicated on cases/per day and/or positivity rate, not deaths. As those wickets are met and states like NY start requiring quarantines for travelers from most of the union again, people are going to start canceling flights.

So it ain’t all Karens...some people just can’t afford to miss two weeks of work or school after a trip.
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Old 10-10-2020, 02:25 PM
  #950  
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Originally Posted by firefighterplt
Also remember that most state quarantine list BS is predicated on cases/per day and/or positivity rate, not deaths. As those wickets are met and states like NY start requiring quarantines for travelers from most of the union again, people are going to start canceling flights.

So it ain’t all Karens...some people just can’t afford to miss two weeks of work or school after a trip.
As winter approaches, high and mighty States like NY, NJ etc, will realize maybe they shouldn't have thumbed their noses at 30+ other States (mostly red States)... There are little to no mitigation efforts that have proven to be effective unless we want society to end.

I am yet to meet more than maybe 3 people who are afraid of this sh!t. Once I felt the State governments and media were selling a line of fear I became suspicious... We shouldn't have to be forced to be fearful. And once we were I called BS on the whole thing. We're literally being told we have to be fearful.

Case in point... nobody in my gym wore a mask when the gyms opened (because nobody was afraid of the Vid) and to this day (especially now) the only reason 9 out of 10 do is because it's a business policy. Even the older people find ways to lower it below their nose and mouth when they can.

My folks live in FL, amongst a much older group. Just talked to them, today. They commented how not even the elderly are afraid of it down there. We're being forced to be fearful and being forced to change our lives. Especially in NY, CA,HI etc.
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