TSA Numbers
10-01-2020, 05:32 AM
#801
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2016
Position: Here and there
Posts: 1,906
10-01-2020, 05:36 AM
#802
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 303
10-01-2020, 07:32 AM
#803
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Position: CRJ9 CA
Posts: 4,083
Closing out September with a bang. I was very pleased with the numbers all this month. Not only did Labor Day set new highs, we had solid growth all month.
I am wondering if capacity across all airlines is higher, lower or the same for October as it was last month. If less, we are going to hit capacity constraints very soon. If the same, I hope there is still seats out there to fill but we could still hit a ceiling at some point. If it’s more, we could be looking a great month.
I am wondering if capacity across all airlines is higher, lower or the same for October as it was last month. If less, we are going to hit capacity constraints very soon. If the same, I hope there is still seats out there to fill but we could still hit a ceiling at some point. If it’s more, we could be looking a great month.
10-01-2020, 07:44 AM
#804
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 55
tomorrow will show a decent TSA thru number.
10-01-2020, 03:25 PM
#806
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2020
Posts: 39
I referenced the above comment because on October 9th (less than 1 month!) we will have 7-day rolling average above 750K/day. It should not drop below that threshold for the remainder of the year.
See below for the model forecasts for the remainder of the month.
September Summary Statistics:
TSA Forecast 2019: 65,244,501
TSA Forecast 2020: 21,409,455
September %: 32.8%
For reference:
April: 4.7%
May: 9.6%
June: 18.9%
July: 26.1%
August: 29.0%
On October 1st, I will check back in to evaluate daily passenger errors for 2019 and 2020 and post the adjusted model for October and beyond.
See below for the model forecasts for the remainder of the month.
September Summary Statistics:
TSA Forecast 2019: 65,244,501
TSA Forecast 2020: 21,409,455
September %: 32.8%
For reference:
April: 4.7%
May: 9.6%
June: 18.9%
July: 26.1%
August: 29.0%
On October 1st, I will check back in to evaluate daily passenger errors for 2019 and 2020 and post the adjusted model for October and beyond.
Final September Statistics:
TSA Forecast 2019: 65,244,501
TSA Actual 2019: 66,531,258
Variance: 1.97%
TSA Forecast 2020: 21,409,455
TSA Actual 2020: 21,488,263
Variance: 0.37%
September 2020 % Forecast: 32.8%
September 2020 % Actual: 32.3%
Variance: -0.5 pp
For reference:
April: 4.7%
May: 9.6%
June: 18.9%
July: 26.1%
August: 29.0%
September: 32.3%
10-01-2020, 03:59 PM
#807
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Position: CRJ9 CA
Posts: 4,083
For what I am looking at it is times in the hub then departure times go out stations such that connections can be made. September was connection friendly. October not so much. It’s the same number of flights. The Times are different.
10-01-2020, 05:06 PM
#808
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,222
She asks "why" (she's not worried either, just curious)
He says, "because I don't have television..
True story
If it wasn't for Facebook, Social Media and the easy access to media, we'd be business as usual.
10-02-2020, 02:25 AM
#809
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,026
My sister, in NY, has an Amish neighbor.. She recently asked him if he was worried about Covid. His response.."no, not at all"
She asks "why" (she's not worried either, just curious)
He says, "because I don't have television..
True story
If it wasn't for Facebook, Social Media and the easy access to media, we'd be business as usual.
She asks "why" (she's not worried either, just curious)
He says, "because I don't have television..
True story
If it wasn't for Facebook, Social Media and the easy access to media, we'd be business as usual.
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