TSA Numbers
09-30-2020, 09:05 AM
#794
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2020
Posts: 39
The data will be incredibly "noisy" at the end of November and December because of Thanksgiving and Christmas respectively.
The bounce from Independence Day was sustained in to a higher 7-day rolling-average in to mid-July.
The bounce from Labor Day was not sustained in to a higher 7-day rolling-average in to mid-September.
It will be Mid-December and Mid-January before we can make meaningful determinations of whether the holidays:
1. Provided a temporary boost (and the 7-day rolling-average percentage resumes its increase from the same pre-holiday level). This is comparable to Post Labor Day, OR
2. Help to ratchet up the 7-day rolling-average percentage to a new higher level from which growth continues. This is comparable to Post Independence Day.
You can see the two below scenarios in the chart of TSA Passengers below with data up until September 29th. The holidays have been identified with red bars.
The bounce from Independence Day was sustained in to a higher 7-day rolling-average in to mid-July.
The bounce from Labor Day was not sustained in to a higher 7-day rolling-average in to mid-September.
It will be Mid-December and Mid-January before we can make meaningful determinations of whether the holidays:
1. Provided a temporary boost (and the 7-day rolling-average percentage resumes its increase from the same pre-holiday level). This is comparable to Post Labor Day, OR
2. Help to ratchet up the 7-day rolling-average percentage to a new higher level from which growth continues. This is comparable to Post Independence Day.
You can see the two below scenarios in the chart of TSA Passengers below with data up until September 29th. The holidays have been identified with red bars.
09-30-2020, 11:46 AM
#795
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Fully Retired
Posts: 7,000
I'm glad you liked it.
I'm planning on posting the forecast & charts for the model up to November 15th on either this Friday or Saturday as we close out the month of September.
I'll also provide a quick September Summary vs Forecast.
There are some big milestones coming up in October and I need to take some time to type up the post.
I'm planning on posting the forecast & charts for the model up to November 15th on either this Friday or Saturday as we close out the month of September.
I'll also provide a quick September Summary vs Forecast.
There are some big milestones coming up in October and I need to take some time to type up the post.
09-30-2020, 12:05 PM
#796
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Fully Retired
Posts: 7,000
I'm glad you liked it.
I'm planning on posting the forecast & charts for the model up to November 15th on either this Friday or Saturday as we close out the month of September.
I'll also provide a quick September Summary vs Forecast.
There are some big milestones coming up in October and I need to take some time to type up the post.
I'm planning on posting the forecast & charts for the model up to November 15th on either this Friday or Saturday as we close out the month of September.
I'll also provide a quick September Summary vs Forecast.
There are some big milestones coming up in October and I need to take some time to type up the post.
09-30-2020, 12:31 PM
#797
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 55
The data will be incredibly "noisy" at the end of November and December because of Thanksgiving and Christmas respectively.
The bounce from Independence Day was sustained in to a higher 7-day rolling-average in to mid-July.
The bounce from Labor Day was not sustained in to a higher 7-day rolling-average in to mid-September.
It will be Mid-December and Mid-January before we can make meaningful determinations of whether the holidays:
1. Provided a temporary boost (and the 7-day rolling-average percentage resumes its increase from the same pre-holiday level). This is comparable to Post Labor Day, OR
2. Help to ratchet up the 7-day rolling-average percentage to a new higher level from which growth continues. This is comparable to Post Independence Day.
You can see the two below scenarios in the chart of TSA Passengers below with data up until September 29th. The holidays have been identified with red bars.
The bounce from Independence Day was sustained in to a higher 7-day rolling-average in to mid-July.
The bounce from Labor Day was not sustained in to a higher 7-day rolling-average in to mid-September.
It will be Mid-December and Mid-January before we can make meaningful determinations of whether the holidays:
1. Provided a temporary boost (and the 7-day rolling-average percentage resumes its increase from the same pre-holiday level). This is comparable to Post Labor Day, OR
2. Help to ratchet up the 7-day rolling-average percentage to a new higher level from which growth continues. This is comparable to Post Independence Day.
You can see the two below scenarios in the chart of TSA Passengers below with data up until September 29th. The holidays have been identified with red bars.
10-01-2020, 05:25 AM
#799
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 303
27.8% last week so 2.7% gain is what I am seeing.
10-01-2020, 05:31 AM
#800
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 303
Closing out September with a bang. I was very pleased with the numbers all this month. Not only did Labor Day set new highs, we had solid growth all month.
I am wondering if capacity across all airlines is higher, lower or the same for October as it was last month. If less, we are going to hit capacity constraints very soon. If the same, I hope there is still seats out there to fill but we could still hit a ceiling at some point. If it’s more, we could be looking a great month.
I am wondering if capacity across all airlines is higher, lower or the same for October as it was last month. If less, we are going to hit capacity constraints very soon. If the same, I hope there is still seats out there to fill but we could still hit a ceiling at some point. If it’s more, we could be looking a great month.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
