TSA Numbers
09-07-2020, 06:08 AM
#501
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
So. I’m not a conspiracy guy. But I was working yesterday and the airports I was at were a ZOO!!!! I’m not sure I’m buying those numbers from yesterday. I waited in line to T/O every time. I was oversold every flight and the airports were packed. Maybe my timing was just good. But I’m not buying it.
inflating the number I believe is that "same weekday 1 year ago" does not equate to Labor Day weekend this time last year. So our "big numbers" today Monday Sept 7 2020 will be compared against Monday Sept 9 2019, I believe.
09-07-2020, 06:40 AM
#502
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2016
Position: Here and there
Posts: 1,906
TSA Numbers
Nope, it’ll be compared to Monday Sept 2nd as that was Labor Day in 2019.
At least that’s how today should be measured and not necessarily day of week like we’ve been doing.
09-07-2020, 06:53 AM
#503
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
TSA states: 1 Year Ago - Same Weekday
That tells me subtract 365 days and the closest "same weekday" is the day they are using. That leads me to believe Monday Sept 9, 2019. Note that Labor day is the first Monday in September but today is Sept 7. Labor day in 2019 was on Sept 2 2019, 371 days prior.
This can be done in Excel but I am not at my Excel program right now.
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dat...=&aw=&ad=&rec=
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dat...w=&ad=365&rec=
in any event, mid-Sept the data should become more clear.
I agree with your points, it should be apples to apples.
Last edited by senecacaptain; 09-07-2020 at 07:04 AM.
09-07-2020, 07:05 AM
#504
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2016
Position: Here and there
Posts: 1,906
Not sure how TSA is doing it but I do not believe they line up like you stated.
TSA states: 1 Year Ago - Same Weekday
That tells me subtract 365 days and the closest "same weekday" is the day they are using. This can be done in Excel but I am not at my Excel program right now.
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dat...=&aw=&ad=&rec=
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dat...w=&ad=365&rec=
in any event, mid-Sept the data should become more clear.
TSA states: 1 Year Ago - Same Weekday
That tells me subtract 365 days and the closest "same weekday" is the day they are using. This can be done in Excel but I am not at my Excel program right now.
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dat...=&aw=&ad=&rec=
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dat...w=&ad=365&rec=
in any event, mid-Sept the data should become more clear.
I don’t think I artfully made my point so I’m sorry about that.
I believe the TSA data is comparing day of the week this year to the same day of the week last year. So, today’s (9/7) TSA numbers will compare to 9/9/19. However, and this is the point I poorly tried to make, to accurately see how the holiday weekend stacked up to last year we should compare Sept 3-7, 2020 data to the August 29-Sept 2, 2019 TSA numbers.
...maybe we are saying the same thing?
09-07-2020, 07:10 AM
#505
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
I don’t think I artfully made my point so I’m sorry about that.
I believe the TSA data is comparing day of the week this year to the same day of the week last year. So, today’s (9/7) TSA numbers will compare to 9/9/19. However, and this is the point I poorly tried to make, to accurately see how the holiday weekend stacked up to last year we should compare Sept 3-7, 2020 data to the August 29-Sept 2, 2019 TSA numbers.
...maybe we are saying the same thing?
I believe the TSA data is comparing day of the week this year to the same day of the week last year. So, today’s (9/7) TSA numbers will compare to 9/9/19. However, and this is the point I poorly tried to make, to accurately see how the holiday weekend stacked up to last year we should compare Sept 3-7, 2020 data to the August 29-Sept 2, 2019 TSA numbers.
...maybe we are saying the same thing?
have a good one sir
09-07-2020, 07:13 AM
#506
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 417
I believe the TSA data is comparing day of the week this year to the same day of the week last year. So, today’s (9/7) TSA numbers will compare to 9/9/19. However, and this is the point I poorly tried to make, to accurately see how the holiday weekend stacked up to last year we should compare Sept 3-7, 2020 data to the August 29-Sept 2, 2019 TSA numbers.
The green dotted line is comparison using unmolested TSA data, while the yellow solid line adjusts for the Labor Day date offset by shifting the comparison appropriately. Still growth, but not as much as the unadjusted comparison would lead you to believe.
09-07-2020, 10:56 AM
#509
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Position: Bus FO
Posts: 82
It is important to remember how much of the day it is that packed. If airport XYZ used to have 8 banks per day and now only has 4 then being just as crowded is 50% of normal. A Southwest buddy in the late spring remarked how the B gates in DEN were a ghost town. United actually had more flights a day then SW did that month - but instead of being spread out a bit they were concentrated into two banks. So basically 3 hours a day B looked busy and the rest it was deserted. Just depends on when you are there.
09-07-2020, 11:10 AM
#510
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Position: CRJ9 CA
Posts: 4,083
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