TSA Numbers
08-20-2020, 01:23 PM
#351
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
Yeah, what I said. Those people HAVE been traveling. That’s my point. I agree there may actually be a slight increase to offset the very small numbers of family travelers that drop off after Labor Day.
Our numbers will stay at least level through fall, IMO. SWA’s pullback is a reduction to the increase they predicted (full schedule by the end of the year).
Our numbers will stay at least level through fall, IMO. SWA’s pullback is a reduction to the increase they predicted (full schedule by the end of the year).
It was less than two months ago when Southwest Airlines unveiled plans to fly a nearly full schedule by December in an effort to grow out of the coronavirus pandemic as it has past recessions.
Now, those plans are fizzling like a dying sparkler on the Fourth of July.
Dallas-based Southwest plans to fly about 25% less than it flew at the end of 2019 by December, CEO Gary Kelly said during the airline’s second quarter earnings call on Thursday. The flight reductions are still in the works and will be loaded in its schedule over the coming weeks.
“And, if demand is like it is today, that won’t be enough,” Kelly added in a dour note on the outlook. “We’ll have to be smaller.”
Now, those plans are fizzling like a dying sparkler on the Fourth of July.
Dallas-based Southwest plans to fly about 25% less than it flew at the end of 2019 by December, CEO Gary Kelly said during the airline’s second quarter earnings call on Thursday. The flight reductions are still in the works and will be loaded in its schedule over the coming weeks.
“And, if demand is like it is today, that won’t be enough,” Kelly added in a dour note on the outlook. “We’ll have to be smaller.”
08-21-2020, 05:58 AM
#354
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 417
So here's an interesting thing. Both charts below track a specific day of the week, and in each the green bars represent the absolute screening count for that day while the yellow triangles represent the percentage change relative to the week prior. The yellow dotted line is a third order poly fit trend.
It's Friday morning, so we're excited about seeing the TSA data for Thursday. It's not great, by any means, but at least there is some positive growth (however meager) and it's had the most screenings of any Thursday since last April. Yay! All seems good, right?
But then we remember that Wednesday didn't look so great. In fact, Wednesday's absolute count has been slowly decreasing and it's week-over-week change rate has been correspondingly negative.
The difference in absolute numbers between Wednesday and Thursday are nothing surprising but the difference in the change between the two over the last couple of weeks is interesting. There has been a gap growing between the two for some time, and over the last two weeks the growth in that gap seems to be widening.
One might speculate that this is due ot business travel being non existent while leisure travel continues for the time being, but wouldn't that have been the case for a while? Similarly, one might speculate that this is an artifact of business travel recovering more slowly than leisure. One might also speculate that both have changes that are so small that they might well be noise in the data (I'm inclined to buy into this, pending more data). There might be other theories as well.
It's Friday morning, so we're excited about seeing the TSA data for Thursday. It's not great, by any means, but at least there is some positive growth (however meager) and it's had the most screenings of any Thursday since last April. Yay! All seems good, right?
But then we remember that Wednesday didn't look so great. In fact, Wednesday's absolute count has been slowly decreasing and it's week-over-week change rate has been correspondingly negative.
The difference in absolute numbers between Wednesday and Thursday are nothing surprising but the difference in the change between the two over the last couple of weeks is interesting. There has been a gap growing between the two for some time, and over the last two weeks the growth in that gap seems to be widening.
One might speculate that this is due ot business travel being non existent while leisure travel continues for the time being, but wouldn't that have been the case for a while? Similarly, one might speculate that this is an artifact of business travel recovering more slowly than leisure. One might also speculate that both have changes that are so small that they might well be noise in the data (I'm inclined to buy into this, pending more data). There might be other theories as well.
08-21-2020, 06:07 AM
#355
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 391
So here's an interesting thing. Both charts below track a specific day of the week, and in each the green bars represent the absolute screening count for that day while the yellow triangles represent the percentage change relative to the week prior. The yellow dotted line is a third order poly fit trend.
It's Friday morning, so we're excited about seeing the TSA data for Thursday. It's not great, by any means, but at least there is some positive growth (however meager) and it's had the most screenings of any Thursday since last April. Yay! All seems good, right?
But then we remember that Wednesday didn't look so great. In fact, Wednesday's absolute count has been slowly decreasing and it's week-over-week change rate has been correspondingly negative.
The difference in absolute numbers between Wednesday and Thursday are nothing surprising but the difference in the change between the two over the last couple of weeks is interesting. There has been a gap growing between the two for some time, and over the last two weeks the growth in that gap seems to be widening.
One might speculate that this is due ot business travel being non existent while leisure travel continues for the time being, but wouldn't that have been the case for a while? Similarly, one might speculate that this is an artifact of business travel recovering more slowly than leisure. One might also speculate that both have changes that are so small that they might well be noise in the data (I'm inclined to buy into this, pending more data). There might be other theories as well.
It's Friday morning, so we're excited about seeing the TSA data for Thursday. It's not great, by any means, but at least there is some positive growth (however meager) and it's had the most screenings of any Thursday since last April. Yay! All seems good, right?
But then we remember that Wednesday didn't look so great. In fact, Wednesday's absolute count has been slowly decreasing and it's week-over-week change rate has been correspondingly negative.
The difference in absolute numbers between Wednesday and Thursday are nothing surprising but the difference in the change between the two over the last couple of weeks is interesting. There has been a gap growing between the two for some time, and over the last two weeks the growth in that gap seems to be widening.
One might speculate that this is due ot business travel being non existent while leisure travel continues for the time being, but wouldn't that have been the case for a while? Similarly, one might speculate that this is an artifact of business travel recovering more slowly than leisure. One might also speculate that both have changes that are so small that they might well be noise in the data (I'm inclined to buy into this, pending more data). There might be other theories as well.
Could another possibility be that the carriers are really throttling back their networks on T/W thus pushing all of that capacity to the Th/M periods?
08-21-2020, 06:10 AM
#356
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 417
Your suggested possibility seems as plausible as anything else and unlike the items I listed could probably be supported or refuted with actual data (although probably not conclusively) with some data if you wanted to dig and find it. I don't know where to find it for all the various airlines, else I'd probably be nerding out on that :-)
08-21-2020, 06:33 AM
#357
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,382
But with covid, who knows, maybe frequency and schedule aren't as important, if so they can service outstations with just turns and fewer RONs.
08-21-2020, 06:36 AM
#358
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Position: CRJ9 CA
Posts: 4,083
Normally they can only do so much of that because they need the outstation late PM from the hub on Mon/Wed and the early AM run to the hub on Wed/Fri. That enables conecting pax, especially business travelers, to travel and still have half of the day available. That leaves RON planes and crews in position overnight on Tue/Th/Sat that may operate simply to get back in position for the busy days.
But with covid, who knows, maybe frequency and schedule aren't as important, if so they can service outstations with just turns and fewer RONs.
But with covid, who knows, maybe frequency and schedule aren't as important, if so they can service outstations with just turns and fewer RONs.
08-21-2020, 07:52 AM
#359
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2011
Position: A320 FO
Posts: 1,049
Normally they can only do so much of that because they need the outstation late PM from the hub on Mon/Wed and the early AM run to the hub on Wed/Fri. That enables conecting pax, especially business travelers, to travel and still have half of the day available. That leaves RON planes and crews in position overnight on Tue/Th/Sat that may operate simply to get back in position for the busy days.
But with covid, who knows, maybe frequency and schedule aren't as important, if so they can service outstations with just turns and fewer RONs.
But with covid, who knows, maybe frequency and schedule aren't as important, if so they can service outstations with just turns and fewer RONs.
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