TSA Numbers
08-19-2020, 08:08 AM
#341
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Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
This may be associated to delayed physical return to campus in many areas and "extended" summer vacation. Aka virtual classroom from grandma's house.
08-20-2020, 05:00 AM
#342
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Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 303
I still think that all this is just an extended summer peak - I am not expecting growth to continue in all of Sept and Oct, but a stretched summer helps shorten the fall, and maybe if we are lucky it will simply flat line to give as a strong base to grow on for the holidays.
08-20-2020, 05:36 AM
#343
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Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
Could be on to something here. I think everything we thought we knew about predicting travel habits pre Covid you can toss out the window. People booking 2-3 weeks out is the new 2-3 months out.
I still think that all this is just an extended summer peak - I am not expecting growth to continue in all of Sept and Oct, but a stretched summer helps shorten the fall, and maybe if we are lucky it will simply flat line to give as a strong base to grow on for the holidays.
I still think that all this is just an extended summer peak - I am not expecting growth to continue in all of Sept and Oct, but a stretched summer helps shorten the fall, and maybe if we are lucky it will simply flat line to give as a strong base to grow on for the holidays.
The revised late summer due to COVID school calendar plus typical Labor Day weekend behavior should result in good numbers Sept 4-7. Hopefully we punch thru 35%. (not that we can live off of Labor Day weekend for the rest of the year, but....)
also,
08-19/Wed: 25.4%
Last edited by senecacaptain; 11-02-2020 at 07:35 PM.
08-20-2020, 06:58 AM
#344
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Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 303
Absent additional data, I will consider the historical "summer peak" in mid-late August as now expected to occur in first week of September. However some other sources seem to reflect the peak occurred already (see image below).
The revised late summer due to COVID school calendar plus typical Labor Day weekend behavior should result in good numbers Sept 4-7. Hopefully we punch thru 35%. (not that we can live off of Labor Day weekend for the rest of the year, but....)
also,
08-19/Wed: 25.4%
The revised late summer due to COVID school calendar plus typical Labor Day weekend behavior should result in good numbers Sept 4-7. Hopefully we punch thru 35%. (not that we can live off of Labor Day weekend for the rest of the year, but....)
also,
08-19/Wed: 25.4%
08-20-2020, 09:06 AM
#345
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 303
September Ceiling
From an article today in Flight Global:“Airlines have trimmed their schedules to include 44 million seats on domestic routes in September, down 13% from 51 million seats in August, according to Cirium schedules data.
By comparison, US airlines carried 82 million seats on domestic routes in September 2019.“
So, total seats available are projected to be down about 50% YoY in Sept and 13% MoM from Aug. I guess that can help guide us to where our peak is going to be and also as to what the route planners are thinking Sept will look like.
By comparison, US airlines carried 82 million seats on domestic routes in September 2019.“
So, total seats available are projected to be down about 50% YoY in Sept and 13% MoM from Aug. I guess that can help guide us to where our peak is going to be and also as to what the route planners are thinking Sept will look like.
08-20-2020, 09:26 AM
#346
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2016
Position: NBC
Posts: 782
From an article today in Flight Global:“Airlines have trimmed their schedules to include 44 million seats on domestic routes in September, down 13% from 51 million seats in August, according to Cirium schedules data.
By comparison, US airlines carried 82 million seats on domestic routes in September 2019.“
So, total seats available are projected to be down about 50% YoY in Sept and 13% MoM from Aug. I guess that can help guide us to where our peak is going to be and also as to what the route planners are thinking Sept will look like.
By comparison, US airlines carried 82 million seats on domestic routes in September 2019.“
So, total seats available are projected to be down about 50% YoY in Sept and 13% MoM from Aug. I guess that can help guide us to where our peak is going to be and also as to what the route planners are thinking Sept will look like.
There won’t be much of a fall drop off because those traveling are doing so for business or leisure without kids (older/retired crowd). The traditional summer leisure flyers just didn’t show up this year and weren’t a driver in rising ridership. That’s my anecdotal observation.
I think it’s plausible to see 1M daily before Thanksgiving.
08-20-2020, 09:59 AM
#347
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Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
I think LF will be impressive going forward, especially with all the reduced capacity going into Oct.
There won’t be much of a fall drop off because those traveling are doing so for business or leisure without kids (older/retired crowd). The traditional summer leisure flyers just didn’t show up this year and weren’t a driver in rising ridership. That’s my anecdotal observation.
I think it’s plausible to see 1M daily before Thanksgiving.
There won’t be much of a fall drop off because those traveling are doing so for business or leisure without kids (older/retired crowd). The traditional summer leisure flyers just didn’t show up this year and weren’t a driver in rising ridership. That’s my anecdotal observation.
I think it’s plausible to see 1M daily before Thanksgiving.
How do you reach this conclusion. Legit question, wondering how you make this conclusion. very broad statement "those traveling are doing it for business or leisure" [every fall is the same thing] and "without kids" [again this is every fall]
08-20-2020, 11:05 AM
#348
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Joined APC: Feb 2016
Position: NBC
Posts: 782
Not much of a fall drop off?
How do you reach this conclusion. Legit question, wondering how you make this conclusion. very broad statement "those traveling are doing it for business or leisure" [every fall is the same thing] and "without kids" [again this is every fall]
How do you reach this conclusion. Legit question, wondering how you make this conclusion. very broad statement "those traveling are doing it for business or leisure" [every fall is the same thing] and "without kids" [again this is every fall]
Summer travel consisted of the same passenger mix that we traditionally see in the fall. Without the “families with young kids” demographic sloughing off as they do every fall (because they sloughed off last March and never returned to airports), I don’t think there will be much of a fall passenger decline. The mix we see in the fall actually travels year-round. They’re baked into traditional summer traffic and only become apparent when the kids go back to school.
08-20-2020, 11:19 AM
#349
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Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 391
Exactly.
Summer travel consisted of the same passenger mix that we traditionally see in the fall. Without the “families with young kids” demographic sloughing off as they do every fall (because they sloughed off last March and never returned to airports), I don’t think there will be much of a fall passenger decline. The mix we see in the fall actually travels year-round. They’re baked into traditional summer traffic and only become apparent when the kids go back to school.
Summer travel consisted of the same passenger mix that we traditionally see in the fall. Without the “families with young kids” demographic sloughing off as they do every fall (because they sloughed off last March and never returned to airports), I don’t think there will be much of a fall passenger decline. The mix we see in the fall actually travels year-round. They’re baked into traditional summer traffic and only become apparent when the kids go back to school.
08-20-2020, 11:32 AM
#350
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Joined APC: Feb 2016
Position: NBC
Posts: 782
I mean, it’s as plausible as anything else, but it’s a hard to buy into best case. I’d say the total number could also be supported by at least some business travel coming back some by October. Businesses still have to hit their goals and they could be willing to accept the risk by that time now that the risk is much more known.
Our numbers will stay at least level through fall, IMO. SWA’s pullback is a reduction to the increase they predicted (full schedule by the end of the year).
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