BeechedJet

I was having a hard time wording that myself. I guess for example, XYZ Airline operates 5,000 flights a day. 20% of those are international flights to countries that due to Covid restrictions are unable to be flown. That leaves the airline with 4,000 flights available on the schedule. Pax numbers suck so they draw down to do only half of the available flights. So now they’re only doing 2,000 flights or 40% of their original schedule.

What my question is what percentage of the 2.7 million passengers from 2019 could we actually be flying in a given day compared the 2019 flight schedules. Without the international flying, would we only be able to move 1,500,000 pax in a day? 2,000,000?

750,000-800,000 pax in a day passing through the checkpoints isn’t great but at what point can the numbers no longer grow without international flying?

jetlaggy

So your looking for the max domestic pax count

senecacaptain

https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/2019-tr...inal-full-year

"U.S. airlines and foreign airlines serving the U.S....."

2019 numbers were (check my math)

1.053 B total pax
of that, 241M were international (22.9% of total)

2018 numbers were

1,011.5 B total pax
of that, 233.6M were international (23.0% of total)

2017 numbers were

965.4M total pax
of that, 223.7M were international (23.2% of total)

Conclusion, a nice round number of 25% can be stated as how much international is represented in passenger counts.

Put another way, if international completely opened, full throttle, we can ADD that to the CURRENT levels of 30% and we would be at 55%.

However, "current levels" are summer. Also, international is closed (mostly). We have no benchmark for COVID business travel, typically business high season is Sept-Oct-November. October being the big month.

JFK activity: https://www.radarbox.com/statistics/airports/KJFK

You can pull the drop down for all the major airports and determine that the "peak" for summer activity seems to be mid to late August, for all major airports. After that it declines substantially. This is not opinion, belief, conjecture, hypothesis. This is the cold data from ops activity in the past.

So the next two weeks is very important.

Time will tell soon enough....

sumwherelse

800,000+ I’ll bet.

Freighthotdog

831,000!!!!!!

WhiskeyDelta

And 31.4% YOY.

OversoldCommute

Great numbers for Sunday, but Friday and Saturday were both lower than last week. I wonder if that sort of trend will continue, and if so, what it implies (more leisure and less business? Or vice versa?)

dremaldent

Possibility Friday and Saturday were outliers. It's more important to look at the overall trend rather than individual weeks, it seems like all flying across all days of the week is steadily increasing, but weekday travel is much lighter YOY, which would imply that business travel is struggling more right now.

Downtime

From what I read ours failed because there were too many essential workers. Most other countries were home improvement stores( for tradesman not diyers), grocery stores, and HC facilities like dr offices and pharmacies. That’s it end of the list. We had like 70 percent of places ended up being considered essential.

tallpilot

A seven day moving average would smooth some noise out of the data. Where is the chart wizard?