Seneca Pilot

Not at all.

Consider the possibility that I have information that, while publicly available, may not be widely known. I fly for a fund manager. One of my non flying duties is helping out with research in my field. He has sources and information gathering tactics that I never would have thought of before coming here. Unless something major happens to change the equation, AA will not file BK and passenger numbers are going to stun those of us who are more inclined to be pessimistic. The airlines are WAY behind the curve and should have been training to all hands on deck by April 1. Profitability is near and passenger numbers are climbing fast. The hiring at the ULCCs and regionals is just the beginning.

CAirBear

Anyone that actually, 100% truly believes, a company with 12,000 pilots 600+ aircraft went from $25-30 million a day cash burn to “neutral” barely 1 year later, with barely 50% total pax traffic, is a complete and utter moron. End of story. This is what is called “creative” accounting.

I feel for any investor that falls for this BS lol.

I’m not saying airlines aren’t trending up. But NO ONE is cash burn 0. NO ONE.

ComingInHot

I think you're too focused on the here and now. Right now we are at 50% but what if we are at 75-80% in a couple of weeks. They are not cash burn neutral right now but maybe in the near future.
I'm sure the airlines have more insight as far as future bookings go.
Also, most airlines trimmed a lot of fat, old airplanes, voluntary leaves, early retirements of the most expensive staff, etc.
It's not the same airline it was a year ago.
Not saying you're wrong but just something to consider.

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rickair7777

None of the big three anyway.

Seneca Pilot

They definitely have forward insight and they are worried. They have let too many pilots become out of currency. Delta is scrambling to get people into training ASAP. The numbers are going to blow up.

Furthermore for CAirBear. The statements made by airline executives are subject to the laws governing forward looking statements. They can't just lie at a JP Morgan conference. Today they are not cash neutral and no-one said they were. In a month they likely will be either close or there. By this fall or at the latest at the holidays they will be posting profitable quarters barring some unforseen event/s.

There are airlines in the world that made profits in 2020. Mesa is one. We have made a lot of money on Mesa stock since last April.

CAirBear

You do realize conglomerates (large corporations) types have ridiculously questionable accounting practices, right?

No, they are claiming Cash Burn this month. Well it’s March 15th, so within 2 weeks. That basically “now”, Rick.

You can believe it or not, but this is what would make it actually believable. “Show your work”, but we both know that’s NOT going to happen for obvious reasons.

CAirBear

At the end of the day, people can believe what they want to believe. But I feel for the clueless Average Joe investor, who dumps a ton into UAL tomorrow (which undoubtedly tanks in 7-10 days time).

Ill give them them the benefit of the doubt, and say they are Cash Burn neutral. Of course having your PSP money is a major reason for that (which is also disingenuous).

Nantonaku

So when traffic gets back to 75% will airlines be making 75% of the billions they were making two years ago?

Seneca Pilot

Why so angry and negative. Look at the slope of the TSA numbers over the past six weeks. We went from mid week 450K and weekends 700K to now a few weeks later mid week nearing or over 1 million and weekends 1.2-1.3 plus million. Vaccines are coming hot and fast with well over 100 million doses and daily numbers to get us to full vaccination very soon. Spring break is starting and the two biggest spring break destinations in the US are open for business ( TX and FL ). Easter is in three weeks and even NY will be running on relaxed rules by then. This summer is going to be huge for travel because the savings rate has been historically high and people who want to travel have been postponing to wait for places to go with reliably open restaurants and attractions.

The accounting practices at the big four are GAAP and scrutinized by the SEC. I don't know what else to say. A CEO cannot get up in front of an audience of investors and just lie. The ones that have done it in the past have gone to jail.

The Biggest CEO Frauds in History // ONE37pm

Enron Verdict: Ken Lay Guilty on All Counts, Skilling on 19 Counts - ABC News

PixarBio CEO Found Guilty In Stock Fraud Case - Law360

CAirBear

They using “core cash burn” not “daily cash burn”. They also aren’t “showing their math/work”. Almost every airline calculates cash burn differently and many exclude various items (for obvious reasons).

It’s obviously a positive development on an increase in demand but I suspect it’s some interesting accounting that is being used to define “core cash burn”

Again, believe what you want.