spirited

Actually ****** all that. The only thing that really matters is actual number of people traveling.
So - here is the WOW change in daily passenger count change for the last 90 days. Not Monday over Monday, but average daily for the week vs last week

Seneca Pilot

Now you're getting there. Seven day average of raw numbers is far more important and shows trend. Comparisons to 2019 are academic only and not really necessary. Hiring and profitability will come before we get back to 2019 numbers. We're looking for about 1.8 Million in total pax average daily to reach profitability for the big four.

flyinthrew

Not throwing spears, just curious. What’s your rationale for the 1.8M? I think you’re in the right neighborhood, but I would guess it needs to be sustained there for probably several months before post-crisis cost performance and improving efficiency allows a profit.

Seneca Pilot

Currently we are about 1M give or take. To end the cash burn and swing to profitability we need another 7-800K daily. That would roughly get us to 2017ish throughput and that is about where the pilot counts are with all the pilot retirements and other attrition. Basically I just ballparked it based on all the numbers we know. I could easily be off 100K one way or the other. I am more inclined to think my number is a tad high. We could probably be there closer to 1.7 Million per day average.


I think we get to 1.7 average daily this summer. WAG.

Excargodog

Not at the current rate of business and international flying you aren’t, and certainly not at current ticket prices. You’ll see the ULCCs and SWA profitable - and raising their ticket prices maybe - but the Big Three legacies not so much. AA only made a net profit of about $1.5 Billion a year BEFORE COVID and their debt service has gone up a billion dollars a year since then.



https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/...financing-pac/


A return to profitability for them at 2018 numbers with sparse business and international flying isn’t going to happen. It’s similarly improbable for UA and DL.

Seneca Pilot

Ok, we'll see. Delta is saying their cash burn is nearly neutral. AA is hiring throughout their regionals and reportedly looking to hire mainline before too long. Not sure with United. Fleets have been parked. The most expensive pilots largely retired. Processes have been leaned out. The AA debt service is not the large problem you make it out to be because those high coupon bonds can be bought back as their borrowing costs go lower. They also are offering out shares as the prices rise and that is unencumbered cash flow. It does dilute the shares a bit but if done correctly with decent timing it won't affect the share prices too much. AA also had the youngest fleet as of Nov. 2019 at 11 years and they retired the 57-67 and 330 fleets so that much younger.

You can put out all the doom you want. As everyone gets vaccinated borders will open. It won't be that long. The US has already done 100M doses and that will climb very rapidly. Things will look vastly different this summer. A lot of countries are open to travel and that list grows. It is precisely due to all the pessimism that I believe we are near the end of this.

PilotPanda

over 1.2 yesterday, even with 2000 flights canceled out of DEN! Wonder what it would have been.

rickair7777

My local airport was as busy this morning as it's been since it all started.

Excargodog

We shall indeed, but I won’t further the thread drift with a rebuttal. And any progress is certainly welcome news.

aeroengineer

I know a lot of people (my family included) who are ready to take a long postponed vacation. Some unfortunately are holding off until their personal financial situation stabilizes. As for the long pole in the tent business sector I would say whatever the new normal is will be in much sharper focus by the end of this year. Especially given the chatter from business travelers I know.