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01-03-2021, 05:49 PM

#1841

bradthepilot

Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Jan 2016

Posts: 417

Quote:

Originally Posted by pangolin

It'll take some work to match up the day of week but my hope is the TSA will continue to report daily numbers at the very least and perhaps 2019 and 2020 numbers along with 2021 daily numbers.

It should be pretty easy. I just finished loading datasets going back to 2017 for 2021/20/19/18-vs-2020/19/18/17 comparisons. Whether they can/will do this is another story, however.

01-04-2021, 03:37 AM

#1842

flypilot

Line Holder

Joined APC: Sep 2018

Posts: 99

Numbers for 1/3/2021 (reported on 1/4/2021)
1,327,289 TSA passthrough
54.8% of same day 2020
+7% change past 7 days to previous 7 days
+3% change compared to same day previous week

A new record for TSA passenger throughput! Now lets see how this week goes. I doubt we'll have positive week over week numbers.

01-04-2021, 04:00 AM

#1843

Bottlen0se

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Joined APC: Aug 2020

Posts: 175

Quote:

Originally Posted by flypilot

I am anticipating a pullback, however the past few weeks are a good indication that people are willing to fly. When states begin reopening completely, travel will return to some new normal level.

01-04-2021, 04:54 AM

#1844

moonraker9

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Joined APC: Feb 2020

Posts: 376

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bottlen0se

I am anticipating a pullback, however the past few weeks are a good indication that people are willing to fly.

This is a good indication because they have somewhere to go, in this case to see their families. When places start opening the travelers will have a place to go again so it is a reasonable expectation. For now though, AA announced it will only be operating 45% of Jan/Feb 2020 schedule due to lack of demand which will cause a drop off probably back to what we were doing TSA numbers wise prior to the holidays.

Spring break should be interesting after people want to get out of the cold and of course summer...

01-04-2021, 05:20 AM

#1845

LoneStar32

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Joined APC: Oct 2019

Posts: 1,303

Quote:

Originally Posted by bradthepilot

It should be pretty easy. I just finished loading datasets going back to 2017 for 2021/20/19/18-vs-2020/19/18/17 comparisons. Whether they can/will do this is another story, however.

When are you going to pull out the airlineanal ID again, or did I put an end to that one?

01-04-2021, 05:43 AM

#1846

spirited

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Joined APC: Feb 2020

Posts: 419

Tracking 12/18 thru 1/4/21, ie Friday before Christmas thru Monday after
Thru 1/3/2021 - 17.7MM v 40.2MM, YOY 44%
2 wk average 45% YOY - new high
1 wk average 47% YOY - new high

Unfortunately, as Moonraker9 above pointed out - passengers will be all dressed up with nowhere to go. I think it may be Spring Break before we pass this level.

01-04-2021, 05:53 AM

#1847

spirited

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Joined APC: Feb 2020

Posts: 419

Quote:

Originally Posted by bradthepilot

It should be pretty easy. I just finished loading datasets going back to 2017 for 2021/20/19/18-vs-2020/19/18/17 comparisons. Whether they can/will do this is another story, however.

can you share that data, or tell me where I can find it?

01-04-2021, 06:01 AM

#1848

TransWorld

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Joined APC: Aug 2016

Position: Fully Retired

Posts: 7,000

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bottlen0se

I am anticipating a pullback, however the past few weeks are a good indication that people are willing to fly. When states begin reopening completely, travel will return to some new normal level.

Of course there will be a pullback compared to the holidays. Last year, and every year reflects that. The more important question is how will the numbers look like relative to the same weeks a year ago?

01-04-2021, 06:38 AM

#1849

bradthepilot

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Joined APC: Jan 2016

Posts: 417

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStar32

When are you going to pull out the airlineanal ID again, or did I put an end to that one?

Lol. That's not me; I don't claim to be any kind of analyst. I'm just a second career guy who's used the tech skills gained in career 1.0 to get access to much more granular data from the TSA to supplement some income. I can share a little bit publicly (and do so weekly for my pilot group) but the rest is under NDA. The TSA has made a good chunk of the data public since then; it's on their web site in the form of PDF files. You just need to download it all and extract the numerical data so it can be put into some kind of useful form.

For example, here's the TSA screening recovery (in percentages vs 2019) by state :

01-04-2021, 06:50 AM

#1850

bradthepilot

Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Jan 2016

Posts: 417

Quote:

Originally Posted by spirited

can you share that data, or tell me where I can find it?

Send the TSA a freedom of information act request and they'll provide it after a fashion. Otherwise, go to their web site and search for "FOIA reading room". That has a lot of the stuff I'm personally interested in. Latest data file is here .

Last edited by bradthepilot; 01-04-2021 at 07:04 AM.