Excargodog

we’d rather you discussed your sexual proclivities offline....

toolowgoaround

11/29/2020 | 1,176,091 | 40.8% YoY

RiddleEagle18

Cases are progressing on the typical two month cycle. We are hitting the plateau phase and in some states have already started to see the decline in daily new cases.

Come the week of Christmas we should be solidly in the bottom of the cycle. We may see an uptick in last min bookings and people using their refunded tickets.


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senecacaptain

Any virus surge from Thanksgiving gatherings will be seen in 2-3 weeks, by the time symptoms appear and the data is reflected in the various web sites. Just in time for Christmas travel season.

We already know that death's rise about a month after the hospitalizations rise (most people entering ICU last 2 or 3 weeks, some longer, some shorter).

RiddleEagle18

The thanksgiving surge won’t happen.(I’ll put a little money on that) Cases are already in decline in many states.


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md11pilot11

1.176 million


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Hedley

The news has articles running about the dangers of holiday gatherings with fewer than 20 people as potential super spreader events. States are increasing restrictions on businesses. Restaurants are either banned from indoor dining, or the capacity is so severely restricted that they are better off staying closed. How does the airline industry sell the idea that going to a crowded airport is OK, but having family over for the holidays, going to the gym, or to a restaurant is dangerous? Until governments (international, national, state, and local) say that being in a crowded space is ok, how do we expect the TSA numbers to do any better than they have?

Dixie320

The TSA numbers won’t get significantly better until case count significantly drops and/or the vaccine is widely distributed. I think as COVID fatigue continues, we will see TSA numbers inch up, but there won’t be a huge swing upwards until people feel safe and the governments feel comfortable allowing everything to open again.

Hedley

I’d agree. Being comfortable with traveling is very important, but so is having somewhere to go. I think that Kirby was right. We won’t get any better than 50% demand until there is a widely distributed vaccine, the fear is gone, and the restrictions are lifted. We are getting traffic volume in the 40% range with dirt cheap tickets. Demand may be down 60%, but revenue is down even more. One article that I read said that Thanksgiving ticket prices this year averaged 40% less than last year. When things do recover, the airlines will have to pay back billions of dollars with interest. We better get comfortable in the contracts that we have now. It’s going to be a while until we are in a position to significantly sweeten the pot.

TOGALOCK

I think the general public will resume back to normal long before large gatherings are “approved” and the fear pushing stops. Sadly, I think the “Despite Vaccines, New Covid-19 Cases Are Being Diagnosed in (insert geographic location of choice)” headlines will continue for a very long time. We are already seeing the results of covid fatigue without a vaccine. There will eventually be a time, in the not too distant future, where people will be left with a choice: Get the vaccine, never leave your house, or risk getting covid. With light at the end of the tunnel I, and many I know, are willing to do our part in mitigation until the vaccine starts being distributed. After that, however, it’s up to individuals to make their choice and, I’m sorry, I won’t be significantly altering my life to protect those who don’t like the three options given to them. Most people I know feel the same way. At least where I live, many businesses that were told to close again are continuing to stay open. They wouldn’t survive if they closed a second time. The owners would rather risk the fines and consequences (which, to date, there have been none) than to definitely go out of business.

The covid hysteria-push will continue... people willing to get sucked into it will dwindle quickly.