Knobcrk1

We did it to ourselves. Could have handled it much better early on. The current cases are being fueled by people not giving a S anymore. Not giving a S means a much longer recovery. It’s true once people get vaccinated and things start to move, we may not have much of an economy left from all the lockdowns. Seeing grandma and santi clause can wait. It will just prolong the misery.

GateAgent007

Shouldn't you be at a country club somewhere trying to keep 'the undesirables' out?

senecacaptain

All good points. Don't disagree

AirlineAnalyst

I am on the more optimistic side - I see a recovery well before 2025.

It may not be the same "mix" of flying but I think it will return quickly in the next 12 months.

Reasons why I think so:

• Distribution of employment losses: The employment losses have primarily occurred at the lower income levels (service, fast food, retail). The analysis I read early on in the pandemic expressed concerns that these losses could migrate up the income ladder but we have not seen this yet. The broader economy has recovered enough that we will not see large scale job losses at the higher income levels.
  
  
• Savings: There is more savings per person now than at anytime in our history. Most of that accrued to the higher income levels (those who were travelling before). Below is a link to the "Total Savings Deposits at all Depository Institutions".
  In short, the amount saved solely in 2020 would have taken 7-10 years to save without the CARES ACT checks based on the annual savings rate from the past 4 years.
  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSAVNS
  
  
• Vaccine and Re-infections: Pfizer is a huge multi-national company that is leading the research here and has released great early results. Moderna (to a less extent) is also reputable and has shown great initial results. Beyond just limiting infections, the severity of the infection was lower in both trials for the patients that received the vaccine. Re-infections are exceedingly rare and it seems like COVID is not mutating quickly enough to require annual vaccinations.
  
  
• Desire: People want to travel, I think after the vaccine is widely distributed and we see the effects in late Q2 or Q3, we will see a huge upswing in travel.
  

My view is that even if you don't FU money - if you have enough set aside that setbacks like 6 months or 1 year of income loss don't crush you, it leads to a much better quality of life.

To be in this industry is to know uncertainty. If you are not in the first 5 years of your career, you should have a substantial "rainy day fund" exactly for downturns like this.

Heck, for the average person they recommend at least 6 months of an emergency fund. For a pilot and the very outsized effect downturns have on the industry, it would be better to save at least a year. CARES ACT ran out on the start of October - one year from then is October 2021.

The pilots I have the most sympathy for are the young ones that were the first to be furloughed and did not have the opportunity to build that fund.

As for the destruction of the economy - I think the long-term scarring will be minimal.

People will want to eat in restaurants again and when there aren't any open an entrepreneur will see the opportunity and do it.

People will want to go to nightclubs again and when there aren't any open an entrepreneur will see the opportunity and do it.

The nightclub and restaurant owners might go bankrupt and I have sympathy for them too but I would highly doubt that without even lockdowns that the local people would want to visit them to the same level as before.

You can use the below link and view States that have mainly remained open to travel and have kept their restaurants open. Even States that you would not expect to be "tourist" destinations like Nebraska, Missouri, Kentucky etc., are seeing 50-70% reductions in their bookings. I think it is a fair assumption to say 70% of restaurant patrons in Nebraska were not previously tourists. Local patrons simply aren't visiting these establishments even in the absence of lockdown restrictions.

https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry


In the short-term, I wear a mask when I go into stores. I order take-out instead of dining in. I don't see it as a political issue. I truly think we are less than a year from a great rebound in aviation and my personal goal is to limit the human damage until that time.

RiddleEagle18

11/18

33.9%

703,135

First Wednesday over 700k Since 10/14
We have finally started to show growth in WOW numbers again. Seems to be a trend. 5 days in a row and 7 out of last 9(10 out of 13).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

GateAgent007

Your whole synopsis was very well said, but I'm highlighting this as an exceptional summary of how we should all be thinking. I'd like to add that with positive reports coming out of the phase 3 trials for all of the major vaccines, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Some minor inconveniences to help save lives in the short term is a worthy cause and easily accomplished.

senecacaptain

maybe pre-Thanksgiving week activity starting to happen.

Some observations:

we broke 700k by 3,000. 703k Its not like we hit 785k yesterday with numbers deep into the 700's

10-14 Wed was 717,940...this was likely associated to return travel from the Monday 10-12 Labor Day holiday weekend.

In my opinion the percentages are more useful than "head counts." Also, it would be nice to have weekly and monthly percentages.

I am still awaiting consistent, every day, 40% exceedances.

bradthepilot

Weekly and monthly percentages are easy to do - just need a spreadsheet. State-by-state and airport-by-airport stats are very interesting as well; it's not very evenly distributed.

iahflyr

Phins rambling about something...

🤣🤣🤣 Comment of the day!

flysnoopy76

You’ll be waiting a long time to see that consistently given the current state of things