Originally Posted by senecacaptain

10-28/Wed: 32.3%

Not bad for a Wednesday. We are solid above 30% now and touching 35% (or above) routinely.

Next goal post is 40%+ routinely. Getting there albeit slowly....

Originally Posted by pangolin

Just a steady climb. I am seeing more business but also many first timers. My FAs call them greyhound pax. They don’t get how flying works and don’t react well to wx or Mx delays.

Originally Posted by TransWorld

If you think the Greyhound PAX do not know how flying works, fly interior flights in China. People let their small children go to the bathroom in the aisle. Since many people go to the bathroom on the edge of the road, it makes sense. It is where showing how to fasten a seat belt is absolutely necessary.

Originally Posted by spirited

2019 Thursday comparator was real light, down 20% from week prior, so maybe there was some reason - like maybe a hurricane or something. Nonetheless, 43% is 43% - if it sticks - yeeeeehaaaaaw

Originally Posted by AirlineAnalyst

Part 1/X

I realize I didn't include a range of days in my post 3 weeks ago regarding October 9th being the day we achieve 750K passengers on a 7-day rolling average basis. I have included that information for the below forecasts. The predicted date is the "center" of the forecast.

If we reach the numbers earlier than expected, we are trending better than expected relative to forecast and vice-versa.

Forecasts further in the future have wider ranges to accommodate greater uncertainty.

For example, predicting the day we achieve 1 Million for the 7-day rolling average for passengers would have a smaller band than predicting when we would achieve 2 Million for the 7-day rolling average for passengers.

The below forecasts assume approximately a 4% growth for the Year-Over-Year numbers (~36% for the entire month of October versus ~32% for the entire month of September). This is simplifying the forecast but it works as an approximation.







Like I said a few weeks ago, the forecast is based on data + analysis. Not feelings of what people think will happen or anecdotal comments. That is not to say that we can't revert to negative growth with the no stimulus + layoffs, or change in public sentiment. It just hasn't manifested itself yet.

750K
Our 7-day rolling average of passengers is now 745,008.
We will achieve 750K on a 7-day rolling basis on October 3rd (+/- 1 day). This would correspond to data that would be released October 4th. This convention applies for all below forecasts as well.
See Chart Below


7-Day Rolling Average of Passengers
The (post-lockdown) 7-day rolling average high for passengers was on September 9th with 779,564. This incorporated the entire Labor Day weekend (data from Sept. 3 - 9).
We will surpass this number on a 7-day rolling basis on October 9th (+/- 3 days). This means that starting in early October, on an ongoing weekly basis, more passengers will be travelling than any other time since the lockdowns began (including Labor Day Weekend).

Today is identified in red.



Mythical 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
As of today, our 7-day rolling average percentage is 32.9%.
We will achieve 35% on a 7-day rolling basis on October 14th (+/- 4 days).


Post-Lockdown % High
The (post-lockdown) 7-day rolling average % high was on September 8th with 37.2%. This incorporated the entire Labor Day weekend (data from Sept. 2 - 8).
We will surpass this number on a 7-day average % on October 27th (+/- 7 days).



Cheers,
AirlineAnalyst

Originally Posted by AirlineAnalyst

I agree with this.

If the trends continue, the first days we have a realistic shot at 1,000,000 are October 30th (Friday) and November 1st (Sunday). If we preform better than expected, we could see ourselves surpass this threshold one week (7 days) or two weeks (14 days) before these days.

If not, we can still see 1,000,000 passengers prior to Thanksgiving with estimating only a 3% total relative growth per month (year-over-year of passengers) between now and Thanksgiving. Meaning since we are at approximately 32% now on a 7 day rolling average, on October 13th we could be at 35%, and on November 13th we could be at 38% and this would allow us to hit 1,000,000 before receiving the "Thanksgiving bump"



Some caveats to mention:
1. I don't have my "thumb on the scale". I am not including my own biases and assumptions as whether or not day of the week travel patterns will shift as we move in to the Fall.

2. Demand type (business versus leisure) is unknown. In the prior TSA thread, I remember a post indicating October and November are (normally) the busiest travel months of the year. If companies are reluctant to spend on travel and/or leisure does not "overperform" as a percentage of total travel relative to prior years, we could see the growth stall.

3. I am using recent relevant data (TSA, BTS, etc.) and these data sources have all indicated steady monthly growth in %s. (August % > July % > June % > May % > April %). We have seen moderation in the growth rate month over month but the trend does not indicate a negative reversal (as of yet anyways). If we begin to trend negatively on both the passenger #s and %s, we obviously would not be able to hit a higher number (1,000,000).

Cheers,
AirlineAnalyst

Originally Posted by AirlineAnalyst

The above post was made using data up to September 12th.

Here are the actual results. I did not anticipate the big drop off post Labor Day - it did not drop that much after Independence Day.



However, I am happy at how well it has tracked my projection since then. Generally it has tracked within 1% (and usually within 0.5%) of the projection since late September.

I also think the below aged pretty well - especially as I was being told that:
1) Growth was going to stagnate,
2) Summer was over, and
3) There might be a chance of reaching 1 million on Thanksgiving.

"If the trends continue, the first days we have a realistic shot at 1,000,000 are October 30th (Friday) and November 1st (Sunday). If we preform better than expected, we could see ourselves surpass this threshold one week (7 days) or two weeks (14 days) before these days."

We experienced higher travel weeks than I expected in early October and that brought us to >1 Million 14 days before November 1st as noted above.
The downside is that there were slower travel weeks in the back half of October.

I believe if there was a "smoother" October it would be easier to forecast but travel patterns don't work that way.


Cheers,
AirlineAnalyst

Originally Posted by AirlineAnalyst

The above post was made using data up to September 12th.

Here are the actual results. I did not anticipate the big drop off post Labor Day - it did not drop that much after Independence Day.



However, I am happy at how well it has tracked my projection since then. Generally it has tracked within 1% (and usually within 0.5%) of the projection since late September.

I also think the below aged pretty well - especially as I was being told that:
1) Growth was going to stagnate,
2) Summer was over, and
3) There might be a chance of reaching 1 million on Thanksgiving.

"If the trends continue, the first days we have a realistic shot at 1,000,000 are October 30th (Friday) and November 1st (Sunday). If we preform better than expected, we could see ourselves surpass this threshold one week (7 days) or two weeks (14 days) before these days."

We experienced higher travel weeks than I expected in early October and that brought us to >1 Million 14 days before November 1st as noted above.
The downside is that there were slower travel weeks in the back half of October.

I believe if there was a "smoother" October it would be easier to forecast but travel patterns don't work that way.


Cheers,
AirlineAnalyst