Vaccine Development Summary
12-25-2020, 07:29 AM
#671
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Position: Pilot
Posts: 531
Actually, I haven't.
One thing all the social distancing and hygiene does seem to accomplish is prevention of colds. I haven't had so much as a sniffle since this all started.
But I'm really interested in seeing the results of longer-term de-politicized scientific analysis as to contagiousness, severity, and this whole "asymptomatic spread" business. Going to have to wait a few years for that though.
One thing all the social distancing and hygiene does seem to accomplish is prevention of colds. I haven't had so much as a sniffle since this all started.
But I'm really interested in seeing the results of longer-term de-politicized scientific analysis as to contagiousness, severity, and this whole "asymptomatic spread" business. Going to have to wait a few years for that though.
Published in 2008 about influenza, but a worthwhile read as COViD seems to behave very similarly.
12-25-2020, 11:17 AM
#673
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,538
Being that I can't have a medical valid for over a year, to include a third class, that's due to a SI I have that is the result of a bad batch of rushed to use Anthrax vaccine and have dealt with fairly significant health issues that will go on until I die as a result, yeah, no vaccine for me.
Currently have the Navy saying I have to get it, and it's a Court Martial if I refuse to comply. Of course this is some administrative shoe clerk who has been in the Navy less time than I have in Port A Johns downrange, so I don't really get phased by threats from low level minions.
(My medical record is clearly marked no unnecessary vaccines, and no "new" vaccines)
I've called their bluff.
But I'm sure people who aren't retirement eligible who haven't spent months in the hospital due to a bad reaction do probably just fold and go okay.
Sent from my SM-G965U1 using Tapatalk
Currently have the Navy saying I have to get it, and it's a Court Martial if I refuse to comply. Of course this is some administrative shoe clerk who has been in the Navy less time than I have in Port A Johns downrange, so I don't really get phased by threats from low level minions.
(My medical record is clearly marked no unnecessary vaccines, and no "new" vaccines)
I've called their bluff.
But I'm sure people who aren't retirement eligible who haven't spent months in the hospital due to a bad reaction do probably just fold and go okay.
Sent from my SM-G965U1 using Tapatalk
I was threatened with everything from Article 15 to dishonorable discharge for refusing the flu vaccine. Nothing ever happened. Still never had the flu.
12-25-2020, 12:45 PM
#674
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Posts: 2,303
Yep. Any sniffle, headache, or slight fever, or sore throat there was a high probability that you had it. Any kid with a runny nose should be suspect for Covid and isolate. Asymptomatic is still dubious. It should have been clearly explained that even the slightest sign of sickness could be Covid and you should isolate. The government should have distributed in massive quantity the simple quick at home test that cost $2 to make. There should have been a massive campaign to eat good, rest well, drink less alcohol and vitamin supplement. The risks should of have been more clearly outlined instead of hidden from the public. The public rightly loss trust (in government and the media) and here we are today.
12-25-2020, 01:24 PM
#675
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2016
Position: NBC
Posts: 781
Not to be a negative Nancy, but couldn't it also be because it's more difficult to trace negative side effects over the long term? I mean, smoking actually improves your ability to operate in a a hypoxic state over the short term. But long term it makes you more susceptible to hypoxia and cancer.
Let's say a vaccine can lead to a protein that causes a particular nerve atrophy, but the damage is so minute that it doesn't reveal itself until five years down the road. In the meantime, the subject has been exposed to numerous other factors, let's say chemical agents. When the nerve atrophy has progressed, the doctors likely don't go looking for his vaccine record. They'd probably pin it on chemical exposure or even drop it in the "who knows where it came from" inexplicable bucket.
I'm not saying it's likely, but I do think the scenario is plausible, and that tracking long term effects of such medicine is dubious at best. The effect of the vaccine is meant to be long term, so why not the side-effect?
Let's say a vaccine can lead to a protein that causes a particular nerve atrophy, but the damage is so minute that it doesn't reveal itself until five years down the road. In the meantime, the subject has been exposed to numerous other factors, let's say chemical agents. When the nerve atrophy has progressed, the doctors likely don't go looking for his vaccine record. They'd probably pin it on chemical exposure or even drop it in the "who knows where it came from" inexplicable bucket.
I'm not saying it's likely, but I do think the scenario is plausible, and that tracking long term effects of such medicine is dubious at best. The effect of the vaccine is meant to be long term, so why not the side-effect?
Last edited by Speed Select; 12-25-2020 at 02:08 PM.
12-25-2020, 02:10 PM
#676
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Fully Retired
Posts: 7,000
Not anti vaccine in the least, and if nothing serious has come along by the time they get down to my priority I’ll be taking it too, but you are setting yourself up for someone to rebut you with a statement like that.
When you are doing a mass immunization program involving 70% of 330 million people the one in the million or one in ten million chance will reliably bite you in the butt multiple times . Doesn’t mean you shouldn’t get the immunization, simply means you are setting yourself up for an antivaxxer to go “So there!”
When you are doing a mass immunization program involving 70% of 330 million people the one in the million or one in ten million chance will reliably bite you in the butt multiple times . Doesn’t mean you shouldn’t get the immunization, simply means you are setting yourself up for an antivaxxer to go “So there!”
He also now admits, in the past he has mislead the public. Is the 90% a political move on his behalf to manipulate public opinion? Asking for a friend.
12-25-2020, 02:13 PM
#677
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,120
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2771116
An excerpt:
Of 4085 USS TR sailors who disembarked, 736 had a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 (median age, 25 years; interquartile range, 22-31 years; 572 men [77.7%]). Five hundred ninety sailors (80.2%) were characterized as symptomatic, with a median symptom duration of 7 days (interquartile range, 5-11 days). One hundred forty-six sailors (19.8%) remained asymptomatic for the duration of the study period. Cough was observed for 677 person-days (13.6%), coldlike symptoms for 483 person-days (9.7%), anosmia for 463 person-days (9.3%), headache for 438 person-days (8.8%), ageusia for 393 person-days (7.9%), and fever for 65 person-days (1.3%). With regard to clinical outcomes, 729 sailors remained in outpatient isolation, 6 were hospitalized, and 1 died during the study period (Table). An epidemiological curve is shown in the Figure. As shown in the Figure, the peak of the outbreak occurred on March 30, with 30 new cases.
Ageusia is loss of taste. I had to look that one up too...
Another:
In a confined space congregate setting with young essential workers, COVID-19 is unlikely to be clinically distinguishable from other acute respiratory illness without specific laboratory testing. Asymptomatic (and presymptomatic) spread will limit the effectiveness of symptomatic screening in the absence of other nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as testing, masking, and, as feasible, social distancing.
12-25-2020, 02:43 PM
#678
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,057
Here’s an interesting study on young Navy troops...
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2771116
An excerpt:
Ageusia is loss of taste. I had to look that one up too...
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2771116
An excerpt:
Ageusia is loss of taste. I had to look that one up too...
But it also consisted of a young population screened to be healthy and fit, who were also not drinking (or smoking much or at all).
Cheers!
12-25-2020, 02:52 PM
#679
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 534
I understand Dr. Fauci is now being quoted as saying 90% vaccination rates will be required to get rid of the virus. It had been claimed 60-70% is needed.
He also now admits, in the past he has mislead the public. Is the 90% a political move on his behalf to manipulate public opinion? Asking for a friend.
He also now admits, in the past he has mislead the public. Is the 90% a political move on his behalf to manipulate public opinion? Asking for a friend.
In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.
“We need to have some humility here,” he added. “We really don’t know what the real number is. I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I’m not going to say 90 percent." Also, Dr. Fauci noted, a herd-immunity figure at 90 percent or above is in the range of the infectiousness of measles. “I’d bet my house that Covid isn’t as contagious as measles,” he said.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention offers no herd immunity estimate, saying on its website that “experts do not know.”
Dr. (Natalie) Dean noted that to stop transmission in a crowded city like New York, more people would have to achieve immunity than would be necessary in a less crowded place like Montana. Even if Dr. Fauci is right and it will take 85 or even 90 percent herd immunity to completely stop coronavirus transmission, Dr. Lipsitch said, “we can still defang the virus sooner than that.” He added: “We don’t have to have zero transmission in order to have a decent society. We have lots of diseases, like flu, transmitting all the time, and we don’t shut down society for that. If we can vaccinate almost all the people who are most at risk of severe outcomes, then this would become a milder disease.”
12-25-2020, 02:58 PM
#680
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Posts: 2,303
Excerpts from the NY Times article:
In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.
“We need to have some humility here,” he added. “We really don’t know what the real number is. I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I’m not going to say 90 percent." Also, Dr. Fauci noted, a herd-immunity figure at 90 percent or above is in the range of the infectiousness of measles. “I’d bet my house that Covid isn’t as contagious as measles,” he said.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention offers no herd immunity estimate, saying on its website that “experts do not know.”
Dr. (Natalie) Dean noted that to stop transmission in a crowded city like New York, more people would have to achieve immunity than would be necessary in a less crowded place like Montana. Even if Dr. Fauci is right and it will take 85 or even 90 percent herd immunity to completely stop coronavirus transmission, Dr. Lipsitch said, “we can still defang the virus sooner than that.” He added: “We don’t have to have zero transmission in order to have a decent society. We have lots of diseases, like flu, transmitting all the time, and we don’t shut down society for that. If we can vaccinate almost all the people who are most at risk of severe outcomes, then this would become a milder disease.”
In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.
“We need to have some humility here,” he added. “We really don’t know what the real number is. I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I’m not going to say 90 percent." Also, Dr. Fauci noted, a herd-immunity figure at 90 percent or above is in the range of the infectiousness of measles. “I’d bet my house that Covid isn’t as contagious as measles,” he said.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention offers no herd immunity estimate, saying on its website that “experts do not know.”
Dr. (Natalie) Dean noted that to stop transmission in a crowded city like New York, more people would have to achieve immunity than would be necessary in a less crowded place like Montana. Even if Dr. Fauci is right and it will take 85 or even 90 percent herd immunity to completely stop coronavirus transmission, Dr. Lipsitch said, “we can still defang the virus sooner than that.” He added: “We don’t have to have zero transmission in order to have a decent society. We have lots of diseases, like flu, transmitting all the time, and we don’t shut down society for that. If we can vaccinate almost all the people who are most at risk of severe outcomes, then this would become a milder disease.”
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