Vaccine Development Summary
11-25-2020, 07:46 AM
#451
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 93
There are only around 55 million Americans over 65+. It would be a lot quicker to just get them all vaccinated than getting everyone under 65+, around 300 million, vaccinated to protect them.
11-25-2020, 07:51 AM
#452
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 2,490
They're not talking about vaccinating everyone under 65 first. Group 1 and 2 together is 108 million (referencing the post above that gives CDC priority list).
11-25-2020, 07:51 AM
#453
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,063
The ultimate goal is to stop the spread, not necessarily protect certain classes by way of vaccine. Essential workers generally have much higher public contact than other jobs. No, the 17 year old high school star athlete working part time at Target likely wouldn’t even know it if he got covid. However, his 70 year old grandma might die if she got it. However, by vaccinating the 17 year old he won’t be able to get it at work and pass it on to grandma. Nor would he pass it on to other grandmas while he’s at work. Also while at work he won’t be passing it on to other healthy people who will leave the store and go on to pass it to other higher risk people. So by vaccinating high contact individuals, the protection is much more far reaching than individually vaccinating the high risk. Many of which wouldn't have been able to get the vaccine anyway due to limited supply. It’s not really about picking and choosing who is worthy of a vaccine. It’s more about vaccinating in a way that works for the best outcome and greater good.
11-25-2020, 07:52 AM
#454
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 93
The ultimate goal is to stop the spread, not necessarily protect certain classes by way of vaccine. Essential workers generally have much higher public contact than other jobs. No, the 17 year old high school star athlete working part time at Target likely wouldn’t even know it if he got covid. However, his 70 year old grandma might die if she got it. However, by vaccinating the 17 year old he won’t be able to get it at work and pass it on to grandma. Nor would he pass it on to other grandmas while he’s at work. Also while at work he won’t be passing it on to other healthy people who will leave the store and go on to pass it to other higher risk people. So by vaccinating high contact individuals, the protection is much more far reaching than individually vaccinating the high risk. Many of which wouldn't have been able to get the vaccine anyway due to limited supply. It’s not really about picking and choosing who is worthy of a vaccine. It’s more about vaccinating in a way that works for the best outcome and greater good.
Ok a couple things. The phase 3 trials didn’t determine whether or not someone who received the vaccine could still be infectious. All we know is that the vaccine prevents severe and mild disease, it could be possible that someone could still carry and transmit the virus even after vaccination. Also, the 65+ population is only about 55 million in the US. They make up 80% of deaths. It would be a lot quicker, and have a lot bigger impact, to get those 55 million vaccinated as fast as possible. Yes, the ultimate goal down the road would be to stop the spread entirely, but at the moment the most pressing issue is to reduce deaths and hospitalization which disproportionately effects the 65+ population.
11-25-2020, 07:57 AM
#455
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 93
Which is still twice as much as the 65+ population. It would put a serious dent in deaths and hospitalization to get them vaccinated first and it can be done in half the time. Its also not clear that the vaccine provides sterilizing immunity. Would be pretty dumb to vaccinate the high contact workers just to find out it only prevents severe and mild disease and they can still spread it even after vaccination.
11-25-2020, 08:04 AM
#456
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 2,490
Which is still twice as much as the 65+ population. It would put a serious dent in deaths and hospitalization to get them vaccinated first and it can be done in half the time. Its also not clear that the vaccine provides sterilizing immunity. Would be pretty dumb to vaccinate the high contact workers just to find out it only prevents severe and mild disease and they can still spread it even after vaccination.
But on the number being twice that, I was using both group 1 and 2 because I was comparing your insinuation that all people below 65 were going to get a vaccine first.
I would assume you'd still agree that group 1 should go first right? Group 2 is only at 87 million. More than group 3 for sure but far less than twice as a much.
11-25-2020, 08:04 AM
#457
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,057
11-25-2020, 08:16 AM
#459
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 93
Show me where in the phase 3 study it provides evidence for sterilizing immunity. It doesn’t, it only shows that it prevents severe and mild disease. It’s possible it does provide it but that evidence has not been provided, at least publicly, yet.
11-25-2020, 08:20 AM
#460
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,120
I vote they give it to whoever will take it. Medical people will get it first because they have better access and more faith in it. Most of the others are going to take time and convincing. I don’t think this is going to go nearly is quickly as most people seem to think. I’m hoping we can be at 60-70% vaccinated before the annual booster is due for the first groups.
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