rickair7777

This time is a little different because of the media-fueled hysteria and politicians taking draconian measures in response to relatively small needle-movements.

Ancient history is irrelevant, because they were more likely to blame witchcraft or angry gods, did not understand the cause and therefore could not formulate the right solutions... the plagues ran their natural course because populations (in ignorance) did little or nothing which would actually slow that course.

Spanish Flu, folks mostly went about their business, with some hygiene and social D measures. Again the disease ran it's course.

This thing, we are dragging out for who knows how long (without a vaccine). It might possibly run it's course in a couple years, but we could also be status quo in 2030. We don't know all the answers on how many people actually already had low or asymptomatic covid, but nationwide it's probably not a very large number.

Nobody said we "know it's going to work". I'm saying the odds are good, don't sell your nice house and sign up for the RoadMasters school just yet.

In this case the outcome is highly likely to be affected by how much we want it... it's a technical problem, money, gov support, and other resources certainly have a very good chance of influencing the outcome. As opposed to wishing on a star, or passively waiting for bureaucrats to get off their duffs and do something.

We have never slow-rolled the progressive of a pandemic before. I agree it will burn out eventually but you can easily model that and it might takes years or decades if we go into lockdown every time there's a flare up. I don't know how long it it will take nor do I pretend to know but it sure looks like it could drag out. Political hysteria will affect international travel and commerce dis-proportionally, because while a local pol might get lynched if he tries to lockdown his own people for too long, it's much easier and and often politically expedient to ban the unclean foreigner (reference the 50th state).

It will be interesting though to see if anything changes after the election.

The point I keep trying to make can be summarized thus: This is NOT the past. It needs to be evaluated in the proper context, which includes advanced medical technology and sustained societal lockdown.

Excargodog

I want a cure for cancer and cheap, safe, hydrogen fusion power...

rickair7777

Not a priority for most of society on any given day. Most people think "Foosan. Nukular. Bad"

Cancer is a more complex problem, practical fusion frankly might be achievable now. I've come to suspect that the gov is intentionally avoiding a big push due to (legit) concerns about the total collapse of most of the current energy industry and the associated economic carnage. Plus the Anti Nook's.

You have to wonder, even if it costs more than current energy sources, it instantly solves global warming and most air pollution.

rickair7777

Optimism from Pfizer for a year-end availability, although they are just starting phase-3 as we speak.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthca...ccine-new-year

Excargodog

So in advance of any data whatsoever, they are starting to declare victory? Seems like more of an attempt to boost stock prices than actual science.

rickair7777

Does seem a tad premature, but maybe their early trials looked really good.

Excargodog

Even if they did, they would be ‘good looking‘ phase 1 and phase 2 studies. Which are only, well, phase 1 and 2 studies. Nobody GETS TO phase 3 unless phase 1 and 2 look pretty good.

Then there is the fact it was reported on foxBUSINESS rather than health news. And it has had the desired effect:

senecacaptain

yet another pharma CEO speaking

rickair7777

Not arguing, agree all.

Gordie H

Yeah I’d say that headline by Fox is a bit misleading. I watched the Face the Nation interview. The Pfizer CEO said there’s a decent chance they could have data for FDA review by end of October. He was very clear though, saying the data could show the vaccine is no good. He went on to say if that’s the outcome the company would lose billions (so I would say he wasn’t pumping the stock).

Later they interviewed Dr. Scott Gottlieb – former head of the FDA. He said once data is presented to the FDA it would take a week or three for the FDA to review. He said if the data checks good that would likely lead to an emergency authorization to offer it to very high risk groups ONLY – like nursing homes and hospital workers. So for those groups the first possibility would be end of November or December (so yes technically Americans would get it by end of year). But most of the population would have to wait for the trials to be fully complete and that would likely be early to mid next year, according to Gottlieb.