Vaccine Development Summary
08-07-2020, 08:03 AM
#91
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,057
It would probably be more of a free-market/freedom-of-association kind of thing... there may be no blanket covid liaibility protections for businesses, so once the ambulance chasers really get their covid lawsuit production running at full steam, everybody will have to get real defensive, real fast. Requiring proof of vaccination would be easy legal immunity... probably see an app for that, scan a QC, links to a central database, pops up your name and photo, kind of like KCM.
Much prefer that to keeping everything shutdown essentially indefinitely just to cater to a few not-so-rational folks.
And it would all be temporary anyway, until the global covid threat fades away.
08-07-2020, 08:09 AM
#92
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,057
So the US government is going to make you have a vaccine. That said if you work in this field you may find foreign governments not so hospitable. As the EU already has some mandatory vaccinations. So unless you are a regional pilot or work for an airline with so few foreign overnights you may be ok. Also I think you will find many fields that will require it. Healthcare requires the flu vaccine in almost all facilities. I think businesses that require workers to work in close proximity to get the vaccine. For instance AS has a no tobacco policy if you don’t like it work some where else.
Employers and regulators can and will require it for some jobs, remains to be seen whether crew will fall into that category. I kind of suspect we will... if for no other reason that to protect our employers from liability if WE get covid on the job.
We could see a massive trend of employers mandating vaccination for customer-contact employees, since if you get covid from a customer that's an OJI and subject to lawsuits/STD/LTD, etc.
08-07-2020, 08:28 AM
#93
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,120
Every issue you've brought up is being addressed. A vaccine does not need to be 100% effective. It does not need to confer lifelong or even years long immunity, an annual booster requirement would be acceptable and under the circumstances perhaps even a little more frequent than annual. You don't need 100% of the population to accept it, you either get enough for herd immunity or ban the anti-vaxxers from public life.
So we start with the ‘concept’ of a vaccine that already has one out of three rejecting it outright before it has any adverse publicity whatsoever (which you know it inevitably will have, the one chance in a million occurrence is going to occur three hundred times in the US alone) let alone production problems (google Cutter labs polio). But even if it went flawlessly, you have two-thirds of the people voluntarily getting the shot that Fauci ‘will be happy’ is 50% effective? That’s a third of the people - not a huge part of the herd.
And Rick, it ain’t the military where you can dish out article 15s if people don’t get them. (And even there, do you think the actual incidence of egg allergy was as high as the claimed numbers - even among the active duty? And don’t get me started with the Reserve). Your average civilian doctor will give you an egg-allergy excuse from influenza even easier than you can get an ESA certificate for your pit bull. And the lawyers can tie up ‘banning antivaxxers from public life’ forever, although the attempt to do so will make the vaxxers themselves increasingly paranoid and adamant (if possible).
I understand, you believe this is the new Manhattan Project, but my previous analogy applies: the fact that two teenagers using no more equipment than the backseat of a car can produce viable human life in nine months DOES NOT mean that nine pairs of teenagers in the backseats of nine cars could produce a viable human life in one month.
While the math might work, the biology doesn’t. There won’t be any quick vaccine fixes on thIs situation.
08-07-2020, 08:43 AM
#94
The NeverEnding Story
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,609
Who likely *would* get an available vaccine, though?
In no particular order: medical professionals, first responders, critical essential infrastructure employees (such as flight crews), teachers and other educational staff, the elderly and immunocompromised, long term care facility staff, and college-educated people living in urban and suburban areas.
That may not stomp out SARS-CoV-2 like smallpox, but it WOULD largely help stabilize the medical situation and alleviate public worry...which would go a long way toward stabilizing and recovering both the economy as a whole and travel specifically.
In no particular order: medical professionals, first responders, critical essential infrastructure employees (such as flight crews), teachers and other educational staff, the elderly and immunocompromised, long term care facility staff, and college-educated people living in urban and suburban areas.
That may not stomp out SARS-CoV-2 like smallpox, but it WOULD largely help stabilize the medical situation and alleviate public worry...which would go a long way toward stabilizing and recovering both the economy as a whole and travel specifically.
08-07-2020, 08:51 AM
#95
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,120
Who likely *would* get an available vaccine, though?
In no particular order: medical professionals, first responders, critical essential infrastructure employees (such as flight crews), teachers and other educational staff, the elderly and immunocompromised, long term care facility staff, and college-educated people living in urban and suburban areas.
That may not stomp out SARS-CoV-2 like smallpox, but it WOULD largely help stabilize the medical situation and alleviate public worry...which would go a long way toward stabilizing and recovering both the economy as a whole and travel specifically.
In no particular order: medical professionals, first responders, critical essential infrastructure employees (such as flight crews), teachers and other educational staff, the elderly and immunocompromised, long term care facility staff, and college-educated people living in urban and suburban areas.
That may not stomp out SARS-CoV-2 like smallpox, but it WOULD largely help stabilize the medical situation and alleviate public worry...which would go a long way toward stabilizing and recovering both the economy as a whole and travel specifically.
If you’re against vaccinating your child, there’s a good chance you’re a college-educated white woman making decent money.
The rebel forces in America’s latest culture war — the so-called anti-vaxxers — are often described as middle- and upper-class women who breast-feed their children, shop at Whole Foods, endlessly scour the web for vaccine-related conversation, and believe that their thinking supersedes that of doctors. Typically their families earn more than $75,000 a year.
That’s based on findings from various studies, including the National Immunization Surveys conducted by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. It’s also echoed by doctors, sociologists, and anthropologists who follow the vaccination debate raging around the country at a time when measles outbreaks have hit several states, including New Jersey, New York, California, and Michigan.
As of last week, 465 measles cases had been reported this year, the most since 667 cases in 2014, according to the Associated Press. And 140 cases of mumps have been recorded at Temple University this year as well.
Reports indicate many of the infected weren’t vaccinated. The CDC says that the percentage of children who are unvaccinated has quadrupled since 2001. About 25 percent of parents are delaying vaccinations or allowing only certain vaccines to be used “cafeteria style,” said Jennifer Reich, sociologist at the University of Colorado and author of the book Calling the Shots: Why Parents Reject Vaccines.
The rebel forces in America’s latest culture war — the so-called anti-vaxxers — are often described as middle- and upper-class women who breast-feed their children, shop at Whole Foods, endlessly scour the web for vaccine-related conversation, and believe that their thinking supersedes that of doctors. Typically their families earn more than $75,000 a year.
That’s based on findings from various studies, including the National Immunization Surveys conducted by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. It’s also echoed by doctors, sociologists, and anthropologists who follow the vaccination debate raging around the country at a time when measles outbreaks have hit several states, including New Jersey, New York, California, and Michigan.
As of last week, 465 measles cases had been reported this year, the most since 667 cases in 2014, according to the Associated Press. And 140 cases of mumps have been recorded at Temple University this year as well.
Reports indicate many of the infected weren’t vaccinated. The CDC says that the percentage of children who are unvaccinated has quadrupled since 2001. About 25 percent of parents are delaying vaccinations or allowing only certain vaccines to be used “cafeteria style,” said Jennifer Reich, sociologist at the University of Colorado and author of the book Calling the Shots: Why Parents Reject Vaccines.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4695929/
Last edited by Excargodog; 08-07-2020 at 09:12 AM.
08-07-2020, 10:01 AM
#97
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2020
Posts: 484
I will retract the ‘blowing smoke’ comment, and downgrade it to merely being a Pollyanna. From today’s The Hill:
So we start with the ‘concept’ of a vaccine that already has one out of three rejecting it outright before it has any adverse publicity whatsoever (which you know it inevitably will have, the one chance in a million occurrence is going to occur three hundred times in the US alone) let alone production problems (google Cutter labs polio). But even if it went flawlessly, you have two-thirds of the people voluntarily getting the shot that Fauci ‘will be happy’ is 50% effective? That’s a third of the people - not a huge part of the herd.
And Rick, it ain’t the military where you can dish out article 15s if people don’t get them. (And even there, do you think the actual incidence of egg allergy was as high as the claimed numbers - even among the active duty? And don’t get me started with the Reserve). Your average civilian doctor will give you an egg-allergy excuse from influenza even easier than you can get an ESA certificate for your pit bull. And the lawyers can tie up ‘banning antivaxxers from public life’ forever, although the attempt to do so will make the vaxxers themselves increasingly paranoid and adamant (if possible).
I understand, you believe this is the new Manhattan Project, but my previous analogy applies: the fact that two teenagers using no more equipment than the backseat of a car can produce viable human life in nine months DOES NOT mean that nine pairs of teenagers in the backseats of nine cars could produce a viable human life in one month.
While the math might work, the biology doesn’t. There won’t be any quick vaccine fixes on thIs situation.
So we start with the ‘concept’ of a vaccine that already has one out of three rejecting it outright before it has any adverse publicity whatsoever (which you know it inevitably will have, the one chance in a million occurrence is going to occur three hundred times in the US alone) let alone production problems (google Cutter labs polio). But even if it went flawlessly, you have two-thirds of the people voluntarily getting the shot that Fauci ‘will be happy’ is 50% effective? That’s a third of the people - not a huge part of the herd.
And Rick, it ain’t the military where you can dish out article 15s if people don’t get them. (And even there, do you think the actual incidence of egg allergy was as high as the claimed numbers - even among the active duty? And don’t get me started with the Reserve). Your average civilian doctor will give you an egg-allergy excuse from influenza even easier than you can get an ESA certificate for your pit bull. And the lawyers can tie up ‘banning antivaxxers from public life’ forever, although the attempt to do so will make the vaxxers themselves increasingly paranoid and adamant (if possible).
I understand, you believe this is the new Manhattan Project, but my previous analogy applies: the fact that two teenagers using no more equipment than the backseat of a car can produce viable human life in nine months DOES NOT mean that nine pairs of teenagers in the backseats of nine cars could produce a viable human life in one month.
While the math might work, the biology doesn’t. There won’t be any quick vaccine fixes on thIs situation.
08-07-2020, 10:02 AM
#98
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,057
It's easy for Karen to exert her anti-vaxx power from a secure suburban enclave where there are no apparent direct consequences of the behavior to her. She could just as easily make a hobby of hating on Brady and the Pats.
But when schools require a covid vax, she'll have to choose between vaccination or losing one of her double-incomes in order to home school her kids. Even more important (to Karen) than education is soccer and all of the myriad activities kids are expected to participate in today. I'm guessing principle may sway to practicality, especially since the principle was nebulous to begin with. And I don't think she can muster enough political power to force schools, etc. to accept her non-vaccinated progeny. Although maybe she won't need the money so much, if her family is banned from stores, restaurants, malls, etc.
If vaccines are available, and covid is still rampant due to to non-participation then the pressure will mount, one way or another, to get with the program.
But when schools require a covid vax, she'll have to choose between vaccination or losing one of her double-incomes in order to home school her kids. Even more important (to Karen) than education is soccer and all of the myriad activities kids are expected to participate in today. I'm guessing principle may sway to practicality, especially since the principle was nebulous to begin with. And I don't think she can muster enough political power to force schools, etc. to accept her non-vaccinated progeny. Although maybe she won't need the money so much, if her family is banned from stores, restaurants, malls, etc.
If vaccines are available, and covid is still rampant due to to non-participation then the pressure will mount, one way or another, to get with the program.
08-07-2020, 10:38 AM
#99
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,120
And nobody is saying that any of the above is impossible - but it will take time. Employers may require anything they want (well, within reason) of new employees, but existing employees and employers are bound by existing contracts. Any fool can go get a restraining order if they can make the case the contract is being violated and the courts are backlogged. Might soccer mom Karen change her mind? Heck yeah, but she hasn’t yet:
I readily admit not a single issue I’ve brought up is insurmountable(well, except for the nine pairs of teenagers thing) but they are all going to take time. It won’t be quick and it won’t be easy.
I readily admit not a single issue I’ve brought up is insurmountable(well, except for the nine pairs of teenagers thing) but they are all going to take time. It won’t be quick and it won’t be easy.
08-07-2020, 11:12 AM
#100
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2020
Posts: 484
And nobody is saying that any of the above is impossible - but it will take time. Employers may require anything they want (well, within reason) of new employees, but existing employees and employers are bound by existing contracts. Any fool can go get a restraining order if they can make the case the contract is being violated and the courts are backlogged. Might soccer mom Karen change her mind? Heck yeah, but she hasn’t yet:
I readily admit not a single issue I’ve brought up is insurmountable(well, except for the nine pairs of teenagers thing) but they are all going to take time. It won’t be quick and it won’t be easy.
I readily admit not a single issue I’ve brought up is insurmountable(well, except for the nine pairs of teenagers thing) but they are all going to take time. It won’t be quick and it won’t be easy.
So remember most people work in at will employment which means they could be told you have 60 days to become vaccinated or your gone. We tend forget most people don’t work under contract. In fact until my first 121 job I never worked under a contract. Again even in our world say you want the 777/350/787/747 etc. No airline is going to buy you out forever because you can’t enter other countries. For a lot of airlines even if you are 737/320 pilots you are expected to be able to leave the country. In fact it would not surprise me if they didn’t lean on you based on you being free of international travel restrictions being part of your employment. As to 4 out of 5 parents homeschooling their kids I see zero chance of that as many families could not afford it. Your right it won’t be a light switch it will be a rheostat but make not mistake the direction will be further in favor of vaccines.
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