contrails12

the tree(s): not perfect advice about virus

the forest: they’re most correct most of the time. And when they change their opinions or advice it’s based on evidence and new information

Purpleanga

The overwhelming majority? How many pilots do you know that have it, did you guys have a meeting? The people that I have personally known that have had it said it sucks and one needed to go to the hospital and they were young. At the very least none of them said don’t worry go on out there don’t mind the virus! They said to take it seriously. There’s troubling effects about this virus that we don’t know yet like permanent damage even from those that are asymptomatic.

LoneStar32

Then I guess it is up to you to stay home and figure out when the forest quits changing its mind all the time and it is safe to come out of your basement.

Duffman

A lot of people seem to be up in arms about the two extreme courses of action, but if you ignore the media (CNN and Fox) and look at the actual response, it's been pretty predictable. We opened our economy at an earlier stage in the pandemic than most of our EU friends, which very predictively led to an increase in cases, a sharp decrease in unemployment, and a stronger economy. It's really that simple.

If you look scroll down to the daily new cases, the US has effectively flattened to curve:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Whereas the UK, Italy, France, and Germany have beaten the curve:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/france/
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/germany/

This is exactly what was predicted by the vast majority of public health professionals. Remember, 9 out of 10 dentists think that one dentist is an idiot.

The economy was moving at such a breakneck pace going into this and profit margins across most industries had been driven to such razor thin margins that I think a lot of people bought into the wishful thinking of "we'll recover overnight and continue on the same upward economic trajectory." It's not going to be the end of the world, but there will be some pain.

You can also tell people until you're blue in the face that the virus isn't that much worse than the flu, and for people under 50, at least as far as death rate is concerned, you aren't wrong:
https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...-by-age-2020-6
But be realistic, this is still a pandemic. Most rational people who have a family, comfortable home in the 'burbs, and jobs not tied to the travel, restaurant, or leisure are perfectly content spending more time at home and avoiding crowds for another year or so. Because of all the measures taken I don't think the virus will ever fully run its course, but at the same time, it becomes exponentially harder to put a lid on it as more people get it.

I keep saying this, but study after study has shown that masks do prevent the spread of COVID19 by reducing droplets and fomites, N95>surgical>cloth. Studies have also shown that transmission is closely related to how well ventilated the space is. If we can't use those tools to our advantage to effectively bring the R0 below 1, then it's going to be a loonnnggggg year(s).

contrails12

i never said stay home. I just point out that belittling and or ignoring experts is a dangerous path to take.

RustyChain

When they said not to wear masks in March, the lied so that there would be further strain on mask supply. They admitted this. In January the WHO said it was not transmissible person to person. Your analogy is way off base. Besides you haven't been a pilot long if you say "It will be smoth", you say "We are EXPECTING a smooth flight"

contrails12

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUaQ-_nP3FQ

middle aged Florida man trying to enter a walk mart without a mask. its hilarious. which one of you guys is this?

contrails12

my point is: wear a f-ing mask and stop sowing doubt in public health experts. whats your point?

and lets not try and call into question each others professional experience level

Duffman

What exactly are you advocating here? The aforementioned dude is pointing out that science is an iterative process where highly controlled experiments widdle down possibilities that contribute to the overall picture. As more experiments happen, the picture changes and they're very transparent about that. If you hang onto advice frozen in time from February and dismiss all the experiments that happened since then, which by the way there's been laser focus on COVID research, you're ultimately the one who suffers from not keeping up. Or would you rather the scientists keep their secrets and unveil the whole picture in a year or so when it benefits nobody?

LoneStar32

I never said that we should totally ignore the experts either, those are words you put into my mouth. It's just that I am educated enough when I can see media manipulate statistics to make a certain political group look bad or that they are not doing their job. This goes for both sides.