ZeroTT

The airspeed trend arrow comparison isn’t wrong. The trouble is we need a hand on the throttle vector. Nothing about what happens this week meaningfully predicts next week.

rickair7777

We won't know much at all until people start buying tickets for Q4 and Q2/Q3 2021. And that might not happen with the usual lead time.

bradthepilot

Largely correct. The trend will be a reasonable estimate barring outside/unforseen influences.

bradthepilot

There are some indications of that happening:

• Coronavirus shutdowns could contribute to overly busy holiday travel season
• Holiday travel may be hectic this year thanks to the coronavirus summer slump

ZeroTT

yes that’s the problem. Those aren’t trivial

bradthepilot

But they can be managed, which is why I'm glad my employer is run by smart business people and not airline pilots.

lifetakesflight

Got bored so started tracking the TSA throughput trends during this downfall and subsequent, hopeful recovery. I'll keep it updated daily, at least for my own sense of curiosity.

TSA Analysis (Published Google Sheets)

Some clarifications:
% of last year -- Total Throughput / Last Year's Total Throughput (for same day)
Rolling 7-day Average (7DA) -- Average of last 7 days from selected date (good metric that captures random high/lows)
Last Year (LY) 7DA -- Same as above for Last Year
% of LY 7DA -- Current 7DA / LY 7DA
- Green color denotes gains from previous day
- Red color denotes losses from previous day
- Graph is plotted with % of LY 7DA data points

Interesting insights:
- 18 of last 19 days with consecutive(-ish) positive regains on last year's 7DA
- 12 of last 19 days with positive regains on last year's same day total
- lowest relative point was April 16th, with the positive regain trend starting on April 17th

Take the data as you will! I'm no prognosticator, but the recovery seems to have begun, albeit slowly and gradually.

sdj1986

Thanks for doing this. Don’t get discouraged when the negative Nancy’s show up and start whining that you’re wasting time

DELTAFO

Good job! Thanks for doing this.

ratcht9

Very good. A bit of effort to track real info instead of hype (which seems to range from "we're all doomed" to "it's a conspiracy") that might actually provide realistic insight.