TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row
06-19-2020, 11:14 PM
#781
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Position: retired 767(dl)
Posts: 5,757
Like it or not, all transport is going to suffer. Amtrak is going to do 3 times a week on most of their daily long runs.
06-20-2020, 12:39 AM
#782
Banned
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
This is caveman math, but if demand comes back to 50% PC that means every airline is roughly 50% overmanned, correct? That sounds like a lot of furloughs. Our aligned goal, no matter what your political affiliation, is to convince people to fly on airlines during an active pandemic. Study after study shows that if everyone wears masks and keeps their distance where able, the virus will likely stagnate, or possible burn out. People are social and follow the crowd, so if your crowd advocates complacency, it'll probably be much worse for you. Literally every real-world scenario has shown this to be true; Sweden, Brazil, Florida, Arizona, Iran, etc. Our jobs depend on the outcome, so I care about the reality far more than the politics.
Excargodog and his tired "but the economy" rationalizing falls apart when you realize that lifting restrictions prematurely will make everything WORSE in the long run. Europe and Asia are almost through their outbreaks. They're all reopening in earnest. Meanwhile, travel bans to and from the United States will remain in place because we were too stupid to get a handle on our infection rates.
06-20-2020, 02:22 AM
#783
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Position: Fetal
Posts: 1,148
This is caveman math, but if demand comes back to 50% PC that means every airline is roughly 50% overmanned, correct? That sounds like a lot of furloughs. Our aligned goal, no matter what your political affiliation, is to convince people to fly on airlines during an active pandemic. Study after study shows that if everyone wears masks and keeps their distance where able, the virus will likely stagnate, or possible burn out. People are social and follow the crowd, so if your crowd advocates complacency, it'll probably be much worse for you. Literally every real-world scenario has shown this to be true; Sweden, Brazil, Florida, Arizona, Iran, etc. Our jobs depend on the outcome, so I care about the reality far more than the politics.
I have yet to see a single study that says we can “stagnate or burn out” a virus for which we have no vaccine through social distancing. Social distancing only delays the inevitable. Keeping the spread at a rate which allows for adequate medical care while maximizing infections is our best bet since we don’t have a vaccine. Social distancing only delays the inevitable, but we don’t do anything in a vacuum. In Fresno, ER doctors are seeing very few COVID patients, but have seen a spike in suicide-related injuries as well as patients that have waited too long to come in for emergent health issues. This often results in unfavorable outcomes. The more people get infected now—without overwhelming the system—the smaller any “second wave” will be in the future.
The general consensus is ~65% of the population needs to contract COVID for it to burn out. Multiply 330 million by .65. That’s the number. We either get there or we get a vaccine. Those are the only options. If we shut down the country to slow the rate at which we arrive at 215 million, we have to consider the second-order effects such as suicide and more negative outcomes of non-COVID disease.
06-20-2020, 02:34 AM
#784
Banned
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
But if we actually gave a sh*t and took some initiative, we could slow the infection rate and save hundreds of thousands of lives. And maybe even spare the economy while we're at it. But that's hard and imposing work, and there are some corners of America that are just too damn dumb to survive. We're watching Sovereign Darwinism at work.
Here's a quick comparison. A tale of two continents. For context: the US has 330 million people. The EU has 440 million. And the US hit 33k cases today - close to a new record.
06-20-2020, 02:45 AM
#785
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,555
This is clearly not true. How come H1N1, Ebola, H5N1, or SARS didn't need to achieve herd immunity? Because we actively contained outbreaks. If you want to throw your hands up in the air and scream "Jesus take the wheel!" yes, it will require herd immunity to stop the virus. And it will take years to get there and kill millions along the way.
But if we actually gave a sh*t and took some initiative, we could slow the infection rate and save hundreds of thousands of lives. And maybe even spare the economy while we're at it. But that's hard and imposing work, and there are some corners of America that are just too damn dumb to survive. We're watching Sovereign Darwinism at work.
Here's a quick comparison. A tale of two continents. For context: the US has 330 million people. The EU has 440 million. And the US hit 33k cases today - close to a new record.
But if we actually gave a sh*t and took some initiative, we could slow the infection rate and save hundreds of thousands of lives. And maybe even spare the economy while we're at it. But that's hard and imposing work, and there are some corners of America that are just too damn dumb to survive. We're watching Sovereign Darwinism at work.
Here's a quick comparison. A tale of two continents. For context: the US has 330 million people. The EU has 440 million. And the US hit 33k cases today - close to a new record.
Cases don’t mean jack.
How much are you testing. Who are you testing.
What’s the hospitalizations and deaths. It’s the only two stats that matter.
Just like in Florida. Cases are up while hospitalizations and deaths are both down.
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06-20-2020, 02:54 AM
#786
Speed, Power, Accuracy
Joined APC: Sep 2007
Position: PIC
Posts: 1,725
Cases don’t mean jack.
How much are you testing. Who are you testing.
What’s the hospitalizations and deaths. It’s the only two stats that matter.
Just like in Florida. Cases are up while hospitalizations and deaths are both down.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
How much are you testing. Who are you testing.
What’s the hospitalizations and deaths. It’s the only two stats that matter.
Just like in Florida. Cases are up while hospitalizations and deaths are both down.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
06-20-2020, 02:55 AM
#787
Banned
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
Dumb ass decisions --> wait two weeks = Infections spike
Infections spike --> wait two weeks = Hospitalizations spike
Hospitilizations spike --> wait two weeks = Deaths spike
I get it. You're just parroting Pence. But I'm gonna tell you a secret. (He's lying to you.) Even though the amount of tests are going up, so is the % of positives. So if it was flat, as you are inferring, the percentage of positives would decrease, right? But it's not.
You should be more afraid than you are.
06-20-2020, 05:13 AM
#788
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 116
You're a broken record. I'll repeat what I said the last time you said the same thing. You want deaths to go up? Just wait 2 weeks. Everything you see is on a delay. The 30,000+ cases per day we're seeing now will be very apparent in the death counts in July.
Dumb ass decisions --> wait two weeks = Infections spike
Infections spike --> wait two weeks = Hospitalizations spike
Hospitilizations spike --> wait two weeks = Deaths spike
I get it. You're just parroting Pence. But I'm gonna tell you a secret. (He's lying to you.) Even though the amount of tests are going up, so is the % of positives. So if it was flat, as you are inferring, the percentage of positives would decrease, right? But it's not.
You should be more afraid than you are.
Dumb ass decisions --> wait two weeks = Infections spike
Infections spike --> wait two weeks = Hospitalizations spike
Hospitilizations spike --> wait two weeks = Deaths spike
I get it. You're just parroting Pence. But I'm gonna tell you a secret. (He's lying to you.) Even though the amount of tests are going up, so is the % of positives. So if it was flat, as you are inferring, the percentage of positives would decrease, right? But it's not.
You should be more afraid than you are.
06-20-2020, 05:24 AM
#789
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 925
Testing lines and infection lines should not be parallel lines moving together. If they are that means COVID is still very active and spreading in the community. You want testing lines and positive tests to be moving away from each other because that would show it’s under control. The graph of the US and Europe is a great example of how countries that understand science and care about other people can contain this. “Rugged individualism” aka I only care about me is going to be our downfall in this case.
06-20-2020, 05:33 AM
#790
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 116
Testing lines and infection lines should not be parallel lines moving together. If they are that means COVID is still very active and spreading in the community. You want testing lines and positive tests to be moving away from each other because that would show it’s under control. The graph of the US and Europe is a great example of how countries that understand science and care about other people can contain this. “Rugged individualism” aka I only care about me is going to be our downfall in this case.
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