NewGuy01

The similarities between the social distancing model from U of WA is strikingly similar to the TSA numbers if graphed out. With about a 50% factor difference. TSA was 3-4% at one point.

I predict 1.25 million by October 1




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FlyPurdue

I have been looking at 7-day trailing average in all my analysis to help remove DOW fluctuations, and since the worst day, mid April, the TSA numbers have doubled every ~26 days. The last time they doubled was from 13MAY - 09June. In order to stay 'on pace' to double again on 06JUL, we need to see ~15,000 incremental passengers daily. So far, over the last 6 days every day has seen a near perfect ~15,000 additional passengers daily.

I think a few people have posted, but I too agree on crossing 1M by mid/end of July.

As I mentioned, I look at every day as the count of that day plus the sum of the preceding 6 days divided by 7.

Soxfan1

I agree with the trend of crossing the 1 million barrier mid July, in fact I see it much faster. With the spike we saw Memorial Day weekend expected with the 3 day weekend of the 4th of July, and added capacity system wide starting in July, I’m going with Friday July 3rd as 1 million day. So I’m very optimistic on a huge 2-3 weeks coming up.

My aggressive predictions:

We will pass 600k on 6/18. 700k a week later on 6/25. 800k on 6/28. 900k on 7/2. 1 million 7/3.

Despite my optimism over the short term, I think the leisure travel ceiling is approaching.

This is aggressive and once we hit 1 million the remainder of July will grow slower, hitting just 1.2 by the end, and 1.4 by the end of Aug, flatting and even declining in the 1.1 to 1.4 range for the fall, with post Covid new highs not expected till Thanksgiving and Christmas weeks.

I think 1.4 as a summer high and 1.6 as the holiday 2020 high is the ceiling on VFR and leisure travel. Business and international make up that next million. If I’m wrong and I hope I am, if we see over 1.4 this summer, growth continuing in the fall and not the flat line/decrease I think, and numbers over 1.6 in nov/dec - that means intl and business is starting to come back too.

Of course I’m a pilot and I have no clue what I’m talking about. Just wanted to get my predictions in and check back later to see how bad I did.

canuckian

All you see on the news now is “second wave” I’m afraid we might start seeing cancellations and dropping TSA numbers soon.

spirited

Here is a graph

drywhitetoast

And most Americans will tell the experts where to stick their second wave.

Black Warrior

Hopefully nobody falls for that nonsense like they did the first round. Maybe Americans are tired of living in unsubstantiated fear and being told how to live by an entity that has been nothing but wrong for the last 3 months. We'll see.

John Carr

Well, the murder hornets didn’t really seem to materialize, YET. And until the Squarks (squirrel sharks) show up, the media had to keep the crisis going.

sumwherelse

Only issue I see with 1mil in early July is actually having the capacity to get to that number. I think late July is more likely just because that’s when the seats will be there.

senecacaptain

LAX and Orlando travel ticked up then kind of flat:

https://www.radarbox.com/statistics/airports/KMCO

https://www.radarbox.com/statistics/airports/KLAX

Las Vegas travel picking up: https://www.radarbox.com/statistics/airports/KLAS

maybe "adult leisure" is coming back before "family/kids leisure"

JFK seems dead still: https://www.radarbox.com/statistics/airports/KJFK