AZFlyer

Plotting a 7 day avg looks smoother imo and easier to see weekly growth.

flypilot

Do you have a publicly accessible source I can get "future bookings" and "pulling planes out of the dessert" from? I haven't been able to find one yet (but would love to have that info), so for now, I pin my hopes and dreams on the limited info I have at had... TSA throughput numbers.

John Carr

Also agree with this.

But us pilots, in typical fashion, get the mushroom treatment.

Im sure my shop, like yours, has pop up segments that fall in to pick up the additional lift that wasn’t planned on, etc.

A.K.A. the mushroom treatment.

All we have is the tea leaves in the form of the TSA numbers.

Which good. However, one of Winston:”The Wolf񻩙s quotes still applies, and it’s not fit for APC.

4V14T0R

Gotcha. I personally like the 7-day as it also corrects for daily variation.


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md11pilot11

I have another graph that just plots weekly numbers as well. I’m just hoping at this point we see some sort of recovery. I think if it’s almost a million a day by the end of July that would be very positive. I wish I knew how to extend the trends out over the next few months. Obviously they won’t be accurate but if we say conservatively 10% growth each day when do we hit 1 million?


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4V14T0R

My current numbers suggest being at 500K by the end of July and 1M by the middle of September, but they have been very conservative so far (i.e. actually above my forecast). It's all a guess. Realistically I think we'll hit 500K by the 20th or so and 1M by the middle to end of August, subject to change.


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C17B74

Some very good gonculator/tracking data. Looks for a decent recovery initially - The 500,000 marker being under 25% of previous year postings and the 1 Million mark being less than 50% of last years number are solid forecasts and I can see the predictability on this lower side of climbing the mountain. I guess there is no way to calculate the “flattening of this curve“ when the country has reached its current economic peak due to the actual aftermath/impact of well over 30 million unemployed. Granted, it’s not like all 30 million traveled - it’s the behind the curtain businesses that either vanished that used air travel or the work arounds/measures and efficiencies gained that large companies undertook during this “crisis” that will remain forever or for awhile until they get moving forward significantly. On the other hand families will travel no do doubt and sooner with no financial impact. All the backed up weddings, reunions, missed holiday excursions, vacations will spike and that will help and eventually subside to normal rates. Of course the current riot destruction is not helping, however major or minor it might be to businesses, etc. Anyone’s guess where this current economy will peak as it’s doubtful it will or could be even close to what it was beginning of the year by the end of this year, maybe by the end of next year or beyond based on averaging annual increase in employment rates. Sure their will most likely be a spike here and there for awhile, but that will slow down to normal rates based on current economic sustainability. Using our peak numbers last year, 80% is better than 70%, 70% better than 60% of course - But what is actually needed for each airline to remain status quo and not furlough come 1 Oct or whenever. Each airline has its magic % to remain solvent (just guessing) and hopefully this % is attained. Early retirement, current forecasted retirements and normal attrition may save the day. We need to know where the flattening of this curve (TSA numbers) will be and what is the no crap % each airline requires truthfully to operate. I guess time will tell as most airlines are in remission for now.
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rickair7777

You cannot extend them out because there are multiple factors/variables all operating independently and combining as the sum total of observed pax travel. Some of them might extrapolate but many don't.

For example two of many factors are the new economic ceilings for personal and business travel... we haven't hit those yet, that comes late in the year or into next year. Once we find out what the new lower normal is, then it's a matter of waiting for the economy to grow.

Extrapolation is pointless and wrong beyond the very short-term... the only way to predict the future on this (beyond next week) is by economic modelling which can take into account just about anything the experts can think of. Airlines employ people who do that but even so it's still a SWAG under these circumstances. Airline management teams are considering ranges of between 20% to worst case 70% less traffic in Q3 2021... that's a very wide range, although most think it will be something around 30% for domestic.

C17B74

Very well stated as there will be a flattening of the everyday growth curve based on current day economics not previous. I especially appreciate the “what the new LOWER normal is.” Yes, our economy may very well exceed Jan 2020 numbers again but not in the near future.

Tony Clifton

Only 373 covid deaths today - lowest since March 26th. The daily deaths continue to decline despite everything opening up. I’d post the daily death chart (as morbid as that sounds) if I could figure out how to post a picture. -edit: figured it out thanks to CX500T - see below.
I believe very soon the only headwind to an airline recovery will just be the economic damage that has been done.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/