DarkSideMoon

Normal as in back towards historical normal travel levels. Lots of bachelor parties and weddings have been put on hold. I’m already down two weddings and a bachelor party as well as a music festival and a Vegas trip with some college friends. There is definitely pent up demand but it seems like most bars/wedding venues/etc won’t be open until late summer or early fall.

PilotJ3

171k yesterday. Hope it keeps going up.

bradthepilot

I disagree, at least from the perspective that last year's numbers have any relevance towards where we find ourselves today. If this year was "normal" i.e. similar to last year in economic / health / social respects then I'd 100% agree with you. But this year is, obviously, significantly different. And based on that, I submit that in order to detect a bottom (not "the" bottom - agree with you there) you only need to look at data going back to roughly February or March where traffic was at nominal levels. I do think week-over-week is important, because travel on Saturday is different than on Tuesday, for example. I haven't seen anything to indicate a day-of-the-week behavior change, but if it shows up I'll adjust my math accordingly.

We are looking at two different things, really. You're looking at the counts, and I'm looking at the first order derivative of those counts. Right now, as I mentioned, I think the rate of change is more important than the actual (miniscule) passenger numbers. The derivative suggested around March 23rd that the trend was beginning to reverse and by April 3rd it was obvious a bottom was going to appear later in the month. Said another way, I think you're looking for when things are back to normal and right now I'm more interested in evidence that we've started back towards that goal rather than when we get there.

But I do agree this is mostly academic at this point - in terms of actual numbers, the industry can't survive on what exists now. And past numbers are no guarantee of future performance.

C17B74

Last statement True! Nothing matters until someone is able to actually float (with consistency) . Then it’s worth watching. Quicksand will always be quicksand.

SAABoroowski

Down to 134k yesterday (5/2)

bradthepilot

Yet still up over 17% from same day week prior.

Flying Taco

Not many people travel on Saturday’s. Yes, even during “normal” times.

captive apple

Friday to Saturday drop this year and last were both around the same percentage, which can mean whatever you want.

Peacock

I’m glad to see any increase in numbers but until travel restrictions end, and places start opening up it won’t recover. People have to be allowed to travel and they have to have somewhere to go.

Left Handed

I think he meant you need at least a BAC of .08