Excargodog

It’s really worse than that. We’re he doing his work on an NIH grant rather than getting money from the British government, the Office of Research Integrity would be looking at him real hard right now, if nothing else than for the half-arsed undocumented glitchy model he foisted on his government.

When you feed identical sets of data into a model it ought to at least provide consistent output. His couldn’t even do that. Yet he panicked the world with it.

rickair7777

As I keep saying, there are multiple limiting factors. Any mathematical demand model would actually need to be a sum of multiple equations/models addressing the various factors in play. Important personal travel will behave differently than recreational travel, differently than private-sector business which is different again than government official travel. All influenced by additional changing factors such as regulations, confidence in COVID mitigation, and media driven hysteria.

The economists in the employ of the airlines might have a shot at getting the math in the ballpark, but we're not going to work it out on this thread.

sigler

Oxford epidemiologist (with a PhD from the Imperial College!) thinks COVID is on its way out.

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-do...pta-interview/

bradthepilot

I think you put too much faith in the economists of major airlines. They'e no more likely to get this right than we are - it's *entirely* guesswork.

Besides, we're not trying to predict anything here.

bradthepilot

No, you're thinking about it correctly and that's what I was trying to convey. If the growth rate held steady at 20% for a week, the second order derivative will be zero since the rate isn't changing.

rickair7777

I gave them very little credit for reliability. But they do have tools, expertise, and resources which gives them at least a slightly better shot than guesswork.

Actually I think they'll be able to predict the general trends well enough, it's the timing of the results and precision of the models which are going to be hard to nail.

RiddleEagle18

They also have the benefit of forward booking data....


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AZFlyer

Trying to fit a mathematical model based purely on past data is a fun exercise but it cannot account for world events that have yet to occur, good and bad policy decisions that have yet to be implemented or repealed, and not least of all the irrationality and unpredictable aspect of human nature in general.

So many people are absolutely certain that the masses are either too scared to travel or conversely are absolutely itching to get on the road and see the world. None of us know for certain, but I'd wager that the reality is in the middle somewhere. I also wouldn't be surprised if the willingness of people to go out and return to normalcy snowballs in a positive direction as people observe the world not crumbling around them after visiting a restaurant or gym. That statement is _not_ a prediction. It just wouldn't shock me in the least.

CantTaxiToACS

Universal Studios Theme Parks in Orlando are now opening the first week of June. Disney has not officially released any announcement but likely to follow.

CDC says COVID does not spread as easily through surfaces as we once thought.

So, at least some positive things today. Maybe those TSA numbers will keep chugging along with more openings like this, Vegas and so on.

Desdi

Again I everyone trying to predict next weeks numbers on growth rates are forgetting the simple fact that that CAPACITY and network connectivity is severely constrained or May (approx 10% of planned). Not to mention several carriers blocking the middle seat. It’s no wonder we are plateauing in terms on screened passengers and we will continue to do so until the increased capacity coming online in June.