RiddleEagle18

Our company dropped a ton of extra flights into open time for the first week of June today.

Adding capacity will happen quickly.


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4V14T0R

My guess, 205-210K.


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Tom Bradys Cat

So, if a flight doesnt exist how does one book it? And if no one is able to book it how does the airline know there is demand?

Over a short period of time it must be difficult to second guess demand. Prior to this the routes and flights grew organically over years.....not weeks.

Anyone know how this chicken and egg game is played?

md11pilot11

Personally, I have family members who are loyal Delta customers. One is a diamond medallion and has been unable to book flights due to there being limited to no options. Another member of my family was to travel and usually takes Delta. No flights anymore. Not even an option on United. They ended up booking on Southwest. Due to the limited options on Delta from Florida it’s easier for me to jumpseat on FedEx than it is to try delta to get where I’m going. I was trying to get back from ORD and ended up jumpseating on United and American and canceling my non rev tickets on Delta since they involved a 4 hour connection in ATL and had to wait till 1pm for the departure. Ended up getting on United at 9am. I think, as was stated above, 10% capacity is the maximum with the current number of flights.


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AZFlyer

The airlines track web searches and web traffic. Are there a ton of people searching for flights from A to B that didn't exist 2 weeks ago? There might be some demand there.

toolowgoaround

Exactly. I'm pretty sure google sells the flights.google.com search data to airlines.

bradthepilot

That's a pretty big leap that has no evidence backing it - it's just theory. There are plenty of other potentially more plausible explanations: no where to go, no one more that needs to travel, people too scared to go outside, and so on.

As I've said previously on this thread, I prefer data and not theories and hand waving. The publicly available data doesn't support, nor does it reject, that theory.

TheOtherGuy25

Yup, its basic statistics but it paints the picture. We have seen the darkest days of passenger numbers in and demand in April and now are in a pretty solid up trend...how high and how fast it hits 1mil and 2mil again is anyones guess but the charts I have seen suggest not overly long if the trends don't stop - and going into summer and holidays beyond, I honestly doubt it will stop anytime soon.

bradthepilot

The growth trend has already turned around as the growth rate has been falling since approximately May 4th, reaching a seven day rolling average peak of 29.1%. That average is now down to 19.4%, with multiple days lower than that. I hope it reverses again soon.

Excargodog

Seriously? Have you cranked the numbers for what another 18 weeks of 19.4% week over week would give us? It would give us (1.194)^18 times what we have today.

1.194^18 = 24.3

That would be damn near 5 million pax a day. No way CAN it stay this high that long. And until/unless places like Hawaii and Disney Land and Disney World really open up, I can’t see even domestic flying getting back to more than 90% of normal. International? Probably later yet.