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Old 05-15-2020, 11:15 AM
  #231  
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Originally Posted by senecacaptain
In all of the above examples, the death and damage causing event stopped / finished.

The great depression, unrelated to any disease, lasted 4 years.

A depression, related to disease, could be very bad.

A vaccine is the only way to STOP this virus, and solve the fear factor.

my opinion
Solving the fear factor is about the only thing it would truly do effectively. Which is about all we need considering the level of truly influential people in the US who would believe everything they see on the "View".


Vaccines for Corona viruses (specifically flu vaccines) are at best 60% effective any given year. And in the worst strands roughly 12%..

Forget where I read that info, may have been a CDC report or something similar.
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Old 05-15-2020, 11:43 AM
  #232  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
We lost 675,000 to the 1918-20 Spanish flu epidemic out of a population of 107 million. And strangely, it seemed to select for young healthy 20-40 year olds. Nobody came up with a vaccine or treatment for it. It was followed by.... the roaring 20s.
But this was before the days of 24 hour sensationalist doom-and-gloom media. They do truly have the power to send millions into a quivering fetal position. It’ll only be ok and safe to travel when the media tells everyone it is. Sadly.

Neverthless, best wishes for all of my friends at the pax airlines. I went through a furlough after 12 years at what I thought was my “career” job during the Great Recession. My company subsequently ceased operations. It looked beyond grim at times but things do get better.

Last edited by Tony Clifton; 05-15-2020 at 11:53 AM.
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Old 05-15-2020, 11:53 AM
  #233  
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Originally Posted by Tony Clifton
But this was before the days of 24 hour sensationalist doom-and-gloom media. They do truly have the power to send millions into a quivering fetal position. It’ll all be ok and safe out there when the media tells everyone it is. Sadly.
I'm no fan of the 24 hours news cycle. But...

You don't think the newspapers of the day didn't do the same? Sensationalism isn't new.

https://www.statesmanjournal.com/pic...ic/5082046002/

I also didn't realize it was the media who instituted stay at home orders and not the governments.
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Old 05-15-2020, 12:12 PM
  #234  
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Originally Posted by kingairfun
Solving the fear factor is about the only thing it would truly do effectively. Which is about all we need considering the level of truly influential people in the US who would believe everything they see on the "View".


Vaccines for Corona viruses (specifically flu vaccines) are at best 60% effective any given year. And in the worst strands roughly 12%..

Forget where I read that info, may have been a CDC report or something similar.
Seasonal Influenza virus efficacy varies year to year and region to region. Various influenza virus usually mutate rapidly and many times the virus comes from an unexpected region. The vaccine for next season is actually being finalized now and production is being planned. The vaccine is a guess based on what has been seen in the rest of the world and what strain may hit the USA. Sometimes if close and sometimes its a strike out, such as H1N1. Sometimes the guess is right, but by the time the strain hits the USA it has mutated and the antibodies we developed through the vaccine are not effective. The most important part of receiving the flu vaccine every year is you develop cross resistance to various strains and studies prove your immune system is a little ramped up for when things go south.

There is no approved vaccine for any corona virus yet. Influenza virus is not corona virus. Influenza virus's are relatively simple RNA strands that stick together.

Coronavirusss have a spherical or pleomorphic enveloped particles containing single-stranded (positive-sense) RNA associated with a nucleoprotein within a capsid comprised of matrix protein. The envelope bears club-shaped glycoprotein projections. Coronaviruses (and toroviruses) are classified together on the basis of the crown or halo-like appearance of the envelope glycoproteins, and on characteristic features of chemistry and replication. Reference [Medical Microbiology. 4th edition. Baron S, editor.Galveston (TX): University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston; 1996.]

Solving the fear factor is the most critical thing.. way beyond my moral, ethical, philosophical head to get around. I am not that smart.. There are many people that are risk averse. I still have a close friend that refuses to fly after 9/11.

Personally I fall in the middle. I know the risks, probably more than average bear. I still go do certain things, but also avoid things that I know would give me a greater chance of infection or spreading to others. I also know how to properly gown and de-gown with sterile technique, helping to limit my transmission. I also live in a place with a relatively high viral penetration that is very dense in population that relies on mass transportation. If I lived somewhere else in the USA, my personal assessment would be different. I am waiting on an antibody test to see if I was exposed, appointment soon.
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Old 05-15-2020, 12:14 PM
  #235  
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Originally Posted by velosnow
I'm no fan of the 24 hours news cycle. But...

You don't think the newspapers of the day didn't do the same? Sensationalism isn't new.
Sensationalism, yes. But you can’t compare 24 hour/day non-stop tv/Internet “coverage” to a daily newspaper. Reference my mother-in-law who now watches about 16 hours/day of non-stop news and is quite literally shaking in fear - convinced half the population is going to die. She has zero moments per day that she isn’t bombarded with this stuff. Newspapers didn’t do that.

My point being, even if governors lifted all restrictions today - if the media continues to hype the “dangers” of airline travel (or any public activity),many won’t fly (Cue the non-stop animated loop of the virus circulating through the cabin after someone sneezes). Airline travel won’t return until the media moves on to some other 24 hour/day “disaster”.
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Old 05-15-2020, 12:32 PM
  #236  
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Originally Posted by Tony Clifton
Sensationalism, yes. But you can’t compare 24 hour/day non-stop tv/Internet “coverage” to a daily newspaper. Reference my mother-in-law who now watches about 16 hours/day of non-stop news and is quite literally shaking in fear - convinced half the population is going to die. She has zero moments per day that she isn’t bombarded with this stuff. Newspapers didn’t do that.

My point being, even if governors lifted all restrictions today - if the media continues to hype the “dangers” of airline travel (or any public activity),many won’t fly (Cue the non-stop animated loop of the virus circulating through the cabin after someone sneezes). Airline travel won’t return until the media moves on to some other 24 hour/day “disaster”.
Fair point and I wish people would just ignore the bulk if not all TV 'news'. Most of it is pure crap and filled full of moronic talking heads with their worthless opinions.
I do take issue with broad brush attacks on 'the media' ala POTUS' war on the free press. Unfortunately aviation in particular has long suffered from a lack of accurate reporting.
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Old 05-15-2020, 02:47 PM
  #237  
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Originally Posted by velosnow
Fair point and I wish people would just ignore the bulk if not all TV 'news'. Most of it is pure crap and filled full of moronic talking heads with their worthless opinions.
I do take issue with broad brush attacks on 'the media' ala POTUS' war on the free press. Unfortunately aviation in particular has long suffered from a lack of accurate reporting.
Karma is a female dog...

https://www.poynter.org/business-wor...e-coronavirus/

https://www.adweek.com/brand-marketing/conde-nast-lays-off-or-furloughs-nearly-200-staffers/

https://adage.com/article/agency-news/latest-agency-layoffs-and-furlough-measures-response-pandemic/2250446



Perhaps the media can do a little research in their spare time on something the military calls ‘Danger Close.’
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Old 05-15-2020, 04:00 PM
  #238  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Quite the list. I wonder who owns thema nd who they are affiliated with.

I wondered a while back what these peanut media pundits were thinking when they spread fear.....no thought that their actions, not matter how small, in the pursuit of the dollar would lead to their own demise. Nuts.
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Old 05-15-2020, 04:52 PM
  #239  
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Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat
Quite the list. I wonder who owns thema nd who they are affiliated with.

I wondered a while back what these peanut media pundits were thinking when they spread fear.....no thought that their actions, not matter how small, in the pursuit of the dollar would lead to their own demise. Nuts.
Unfortunately, a lot of non-combatants are taking collateral damage:

https://spectator.us/lives-vs-lives-...cost-lockdown/
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Old 05-15-2020, 08:38 PM
  #240  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
There is absolutely NO WAY that is happening.

This is not biological reproduction... 2pax breed 4 pax breed 8 pax breed 16 pax etc, etc

There is a new ceiling, several in fact:
- Fear ceiling (too afraid to leave house)
- Worried ceiling (need/want to travel, but need some time and mitigation)
- Economic ceiling (can no longer afford it, or are worried about saving money)
- Business travel ceiling (business gone, or saving coin).

The real question is how long to hit those ceilings, and how low will the new cumulative ceiling be?

Then wait for a vaccine (or highly effective treatment) and economic recovery.

That will drive furloughs at the majors, if managers can't see the trends clearly, they'll have to guess (looks like UA and AA are guessing differently at this point).

I think it's too complicated to model near term, although you can assume a vaccine/treatment and apply traditional economic models for 2021 or 2022+
Yet again Rick is convincing. I wish it weren’t so but I’m afraid there are just too many headwinds for a rapid recovery. Trump is a buffoon but that doesn’t mean he was wrong when he claimed that the cure was worse than the disease.
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