bababouey

and this is with virtually every tourist attraction closed, no conferences, cruises, sporting events, and the dod stop movement order. I think July and August will be a nice bounce so people can salvage some of the summer. Domestic and Caribbean will do well I think.

bradthepilot

Thank you for sharing the obvious. Yes, that's true (well, sort of - your math is slightly off since 10% of the average of available 2019 data is closer to 234,353).

The issue I have with that however is that it obviously doesn't tell us anything we don't already know. It's like driving while looking two feet ahead - you don't see where you are going. A little deeper analysis for example might show the start of a change in the recent growth (it does, actually), but the math requires a little bit more than basic generalizations.

drywhitetoast

Thank you for the meaningful insight to the thread.

Excargodog

Sure be nice to know the breakout on domestic vs international, both now and a year ago, because so many borders are closed right now I’d be surprised if 1% of this is international traffic. We may already be back up to 15% of normal traffic within the lower 48. Until Hawaii drops the two weeks in hotel quarantine on arrival for tourists I can’t picture that traffic even starting to recover, but the CONUS is coming back. Disney opening (even just for those age 40 and under) would certainly help.

A SUSTAINED eighteen to twenty percent week over week increase for the next 18 weeks would easily get us back to normal numbers domestically by 1October. International will probably be slower.

rickair7777

There is absolutely NO WAY that is happening.

This is not biological reproduction... 2pax breed 4 pax breed 8 pax breed 16 pax etc, etc

There is a new ceiling, several in fact:
- Fear ceiling (too afraid to leave house)
- Worried ceiling (need/want to travel, but need some time and mitigation)
- Economic ceiling (can no longer afford it, or are worried about saving money)
- Business travel ceiling (business gone, or saving coin).

The real question is how long to hit those ceilings, and how low will the new cumulative ceiling be?

Then wait for a vaccine (or highly effective treatment) and economic recovery.

That will drive furloughs at the majors, if managers can't see the trends clearly, they'll have to guess (looks like UA and AA are guessing differently at this point).

I think it's too complicated to model near term, although you can assume a vaccine/treatment and apply traditional economic models for 2021 or 2022+

captive apple

Turned out to be 235,000, not bad.
Calling 260K for today.

Excargodog

Except they don’t have to breed new pax to get back to last year’s figures, Those people already exist. A hundred thousand deaths out of 330 million? Nearly half of those deaths from nursing home residents? Those numbers have already been replaced by babies conceived before the lockdown (and I’d be surprised if there isn’t a huge jump in conceptions during the lockdown).

Epidemics pass, with or without vaccines. The issue becomes twofold, confidence and general economic condition. Confidence is coming back - a lot of bars were full in Milwaukee yesterday. How much damage this ill-advised shutdown has done to the economy - I’ll grant you - is a serious issue.

rickair7777

It'll come back. Just not this fall. Even if we get a vaccine or treatment, enough economic damage has been done. Best we can probably really hope for is rapid medical developments that essentially end COVID as a threat (smart people are trying really hard), and then "normal" economic furloughs of 10-20%, with recalls over a couple years.

If covid's still out there in full glory, with at least 30-40% wallowing in hysterical fear plus subsequent economic damage, we'd probably be looking at 50% ish next year.

OpMidClimax

Very well written... thank you..

Excargodog

We lost 675,000 to the 1918-20 Spanish flu epidemic out of a population of 107 million. And strangely, it seemed to select for young healthy 20-40 year olds. Nobody came up with a vaccine or treatment for it. It was followed by.... the roaring 20s. The Great Depression a decade later was unrelated to any disease.

The US had 418,000 dead in WWII. Mostly 20-40 year olds. Out of a population of 140 million. This was followed by a post war period of economic expansion that persisted until 1973.

The issue isn’t biological. Every epidemic and pandemic eventually burns itself out.

And emotionally, people recover. Heck, the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed 230,000 people in a matter of hours, but people were back on the beaches in a month or two - after the bodies were gone. People are resilient.

But the damage we have self-inflicted on the world economy. That I agree is going to be a problem.