TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row
05-10-2020, 12:26 PM
#141
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 417
Anyone tracking the updates can glean some continued positive trends from the data:
- recently topped 200k raw throughput
- averaged almost a 3% increase daily regain against % of LY 7DA for the last 3 weeks
- recently cracked 7% of LY 7DA and 8% of LY total
- three consecutive weeks of regain against % of LY 7DA
Once again, could just be reading bones and seashells, but it's been uplifting for me to watch. Thanks for anyone finding this useful!
- recently topped 200k raw throughput
- averaged almost a 3% increase daily regain against % of LY 7DA for the last 3 weeks
- recently cracked 7% of LY 7DA and 8% of LY total
- three consecutive weeks of regain against % of LY 7DA
Once again, could just be reading bones and seashells, but it's been uplifting for me to watch. Thanks for anyone finding this useful!
I think if anything, you understate things a bit so I'll add two points:
- Week over week increase averaging about 25%.
- Screening count for 5/9 growth accelerated relative to week prior
05-10-2020, 12:54 PM
#142
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 417
Agree. Growth rate seems to be stabilizing at about 25% week over week. That would suggest about 212k tomorrow wouldn't be unreasonable. A more conservative approach looking at the last five weeks of data would suggest 190k, but the growth rate was accelerating during that time so it is likely not as accurate. Either is a guess, as both are simple mathematical approaches and don't take into account a variety of factors external to the data set.
05-11-2020, 06:14 AM
#145
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: PM
Posts: 207
Agree. Growth rate seems to be stabilizing at about 25% week over week. That would suggest about 212k tomorrow wouldn't be unreasonable. A more conservative approach looking at the last five weeks of data would suggest 190k, but the growth rate was accelerating during that time so it is likely not as accurate. Either is a guess, as both are simple mathematical approaches and don't take into account a variety of factors external to the data set.
200k today, so spot on right in the middle!
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05-11-2020, 08:28 AM
#147
Custom User Title
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,271
Something fascinating about the pax numbers is that they mirror the rise and fall pattern from the date one year prior incredibly well. Almost like clock work, you can expect a drop in numbers for every Tuesday and Saturday, the slowest travel days, and then a strong Sunday and Friday, with Mondays a little less than Sunday, and Wednesday thru Friday showing a climb, just to fall again on Saturday and start all over. Even the approximate scale of the rise and fall right now amidst the current environment is very similar to what it would normally be.
Never the less, I'm cautiously optimistic about the growth. We need business travelers back ASAP, along with the big tourist hot spots to get going.
Never the less, I'm cautiously optimistic about the growth. We need business travelers back ASAP, along with the big tourist hot spots to get going.
05-11-2020, 08:33 AM
#148
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2014
Posts: 1,334
Something fascinating about the pax numbers is that they mirror the rise and fall pattern from the date one year prior incredibly well. Almost like clock work, you can expect a drop in numbers for every Tuesday and Saturday, the slowest travel days, and then a strong Sunday and Friday, with Mondays a little less than Sunday, and Wednesday thru Friday showing a climb, just to fall again on Saturday and start all over. Even the approximate scale of the rise and fall right now amidst the current environment is very similar to what it would normally be.
Never the less, I'm cautiously optimistic about the growth. We need business travelers back ASAP, along with the big tourist hot spots to get going.
Never the less, I'm cautiously optimistic about the growth. We need business travelers back ASAP, along with the big tourist hot spots to get going.
We need the islands to open up.
05-11-2020, 08:37 AM
#149
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,303
So if TSA traffic increases 5 times from it's current level by Oct 1st, we'll still only be at 40 - 50% capacity we were before COVID? This is not looking good at all IRT furloughs.
05-11-2020, 08:49 AM
#150
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,200
Last edited by Excargodog; 05-11-2020 at 08:54 AM. Reason: Add a graphic
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