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Old 07-15-2020, 10:52 AM
  #1431  
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Originally Posted by UnderCenter
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/15/new-data-on-t-cells-and-the-coronavirus

Growing evidence that T cells are generated after COVID infection and possible existing immunity in 50% of people who have never been exposed to either SARS or COVID. Also found that T cells from the original SARS are lasting for 17 years.

Highlights from group that did study:

1) Infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces virus-specific T cells.

2) Patients recovered from SARS 17 years ago still possess virus-specific memory T cells displaying cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2.

3) Over 50% of donors with no infection or contact with SARS-CoV-1/2 harbor expandable T cells cross-reactive to SARS-CoV-2 likely induced by contact or infection with other coronavirus strains.

These results might explain why so many people are asymptomatic and might also mean “herd immunity” could be reached at a lower infection rate due to pre existing immunity from exposure to other coronaviruses.

Link to new study published today:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z
Indeed. If the Penn State calculations are correct, we may be approaching herd immunity levels now, which would argue for protecting the most at risk while letting those whose risk would be similar to their risk from a vaccine itself - just becomes infected.
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Old 07-15-2020, 11:02 AM
  #1432  
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Originally Posted by UnderCenter
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/15/new-data-on-t-cells-and-the-coronavirus

Growing evidence that T cells are generated after COVID infection and possible existing immunity in 50% of people who have never been exposed to either SARS or COVID. Also found that T cells from the original SARS are lasting for 17 years.

Highlights from group that did study:

1) Infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces virus-specific T cells.

2) Patients recovered from SARS 17 years ago still possess virus-specific memory T cells displaying cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2.

3) Over 50% of donors with no infection or contact with SARS-CoV-1/2 harbor expandable T cells cross-reactive to SARS-CoV-2 likely induced by contact or infection with other coronavirus strains.

These results might explain why so many people are asymptomatic and might also mean “herd immunity” could be reached at a lower infection rate due to pre existing immunity from exposure to other coronaviruses.

Link to new study published today:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z
That corresponds to what we saw on the Diamond Princess, and what is happening now in Sweden. Herd immunity can be had below 10%, Sweden did it a 7%. The question is though, how long will that last with fleeting antibodies?
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Old 07-15-2020, 11:06 AM
  #1433  
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Originally Posted by Mesabah
That corresponds to what we saw on the Diamond Princess, and what is happening now in Sweden. Herd immunity can be had below 10%, Sweden did it a 7%. The question is though, how long will that last with fleeting antibodies?
If the primary defense mechanism is T-cell based rather than IGG, potentially a decade or more. Incomplete likely, but enough to keep otherwise healthy People out of the ICU.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2683413/

Last edited by Excargodog; 07-15-2020 at 11:12 AM. Reason: Added an url
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Old 07-15-2020, 11:06 AM
  #1434  
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Originally Posted by Mesabah
That corresponds to what we saw on the Diamond Princess, and what is happening now in Sweden. Herd immunity can be had below 10%, Sweden did it a 7%. The question is though, how long will that last with fleeting antibodies?
Sweden hasn't achieved herd immunity by any stretch, at least according to the Swedish Public Health Agency (link).
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Old 07-15-2020, 11:20 AM
  #1435  
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Originally Posted by bradthepilot
Sweden hasn't achieved herd immunity by any stretch, at least according to the Swedish Public Health Agency (link).
They aren't taking into account that the majority of the population is already immune, the data on cases is trending to zero. R0<1.
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Old 07-15-2020, 11:24 AM
  #1436  
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Originally Posted by Mesabah
They aren't taking into account that the majority of the population is already immune, the data on cases is trending to zero. R0<1.
Maybe, maybe not - I'm just pointing out that Sweden themselves are flatly stating that they have *not* achieved herd immunity and that they themselves believe that there remains a "large susceptibility in the population".

If there is a source that refutes the above, I'd be interested in seeing it to learn more.
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Old 07-15-2020, 11:57 AM
  #1437  
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Originally Posted by senecacaptain
you are correct. we are not. We went backwards to 22% for July 14.

We left the 25%-30% zone. Just did it in the wrong direction.
the week of July 4 should have been 23 pct. the week of July 11 should be 25. July 18 27. The Tuesday dip is disconcerting but should average out.
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Old 07-15-2020, 01:10 PM
  #1438  
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Originally Posted by pangolin
the week of July 4 should have been 23 pct. the week of July 11 should be 25. July 18 27. The Tuesday dip is disconcerting but should average out.
Can you qualify why you think it "should" average out? I'm not saying you are wrong; I'm interested in whether this is just a guess or if there is data that leads you to that conclusion.
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Old 07-15-2020, 03:22 PM
  #1439  
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United stock up 15% or so.....is that a leading indicator? Maybe.......until its down 15%.
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Old 07-15-2020, 03:27 PM
  #1440  
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Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat
United stock up 15% or so.....is that a leading indicator? Maybe.......until its down 15%.
Most airline (and many others) stocks were up today based on nothing more than hope and dreams around the Moderna vaccine news.
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