fcoolaiddrinker

Thier open now for grad student, thousands of them including staff on campus now, it’s in SoCal and thier talking about a vaccine. Your hurting your own argument which I half agree with at this point. P.s my sister is a middle school teacher with immune issues so I get the challenges. Out for real this time.

pangolin

We didn’t even hit 25 steady till July 4. We are not stuck.

biigD

Only 540,268 for yesterday (7/14). Granted it was a Tuesday, but that's about 22% of last year's. Not the direction I like to see!

moonraker9

yeah, that is a gut punch for sure

senecacaptain

you are correct. we are not. We went backwards to 22% for July 14.

We left the 25%-30% zone. Just did it in the wrong direction.

apes10

Not what I like to see either. Looking back June 30th was at about 21% and July 7th was 25%. So... maybe just flat this week?

bradthepilot

Based on the TSA data alone, there is no reason to think that the numbers will not continue to decrease. This is consistent with multiple airlines reporting a decline in bookings and media reporting a rise in confirmed infections.

Nacho Libre

When cases go up, bookings go down, followed by TSA numbers down. This is an instance where simple conclusions can be drawn.

Excargodog

While I do not - as a general rule - agree with Wutface, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

The Spanish flu resolved itself in two years, largely by killing off the most vulnerable and then being supplanted by different flu strains, and that MAY happen with COVID. But those who believe a vaccine will be some immediate panacea are - I believe - fooling themselves.

Mass immunization programs take years - if not decades. And the latest NEJM I saw on vaccines was a three leg 45 subject test at three different dosages to establish safety of three different dosages.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483





The highest dose group was cancelled due to excessive side effects and the two remaining groups still had mild to moderate side effects in about half of their subjects with the second immunization. Generally speaking, side effects of immunizations follow a bell shaped curve and if you are getting moderate side effects in a group of 15 and extrapolate that to a couple thousand people you will have at least a few serious reactions. That’s a long way from a “safe” immunization, at least for those Healthy people under 40 who remain at pretty low risk for serious illness or death from COVID.

And while I may not agree with Wutface on precisely what those “big steps in confronting the virus” may be, I think that anyone putting all their eggs in the a-vaccine-will-make-this-all-better basket is likely to be disappointed.

UnderCenter

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/15/new-data-on-t-cells-and-the-coronavirus

Growing evidence that T cells are generated after COVID infection and possible existing immunity in 50% of people who have never been exposed to either SARS or COVID. Also found that T cells from the original SARS are lasting for 17 years.

Highlights from group that did study:

1) Infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces virus-specific T cells.

2) Patients recovered from SARS 17 years ago still possess virus-specific memory T cells displaying cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2.

3) Over 50% of donors with no infection or contact with SARS-CoV-1/2 harbor expandable T cells cross-reactive to SARS-CoV-2 likely induced by contact or infection with other coronavirus strains.

These results might explain why so many people are asymptomatic and might also mean “herd immunity” could be reached at a lower infection rate due to pre existing immunity from exposure to other coronaviruses.

Link to new study published today:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z