TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row
05-09-2020, 02:17 PM
#131
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 536
Oh guaranteed! NY alone estimates 2.7 million (14%) probably have had it.
That puts the total US mortality rate, with just the NY State cases factored, in the ball park of 2.7% mortality if one contracts it... That is not even counting the rest of the countries positive cases or antibody positive people.
If you estimate that as little as 5% of the country has had it, we're talking about a mortality in the range of .3-.4%..
To get to the "experts" estimates of 1.3 million deaths... the whole damn country, all 330,000,000, would have to contract it in the short time before a partial cure (Remdesivir) is found.
The numbers are so astounding against this public reaction and economic shutdown is mind boggling. This will go down as the most overhyped, unnecessary reaction in American history.
In March, sure lets hunker down for a couple weeks. See what we are dealing with. After that is way out of hand. State of HI has 47 total people in "quarantine" on the road to the 2 week recovering from a cough and runny nose, hardly anyone in the hospital, a 30% plus UI rate, and we still can barely play golf, sit on the beach, or use the parks for sports. Friends family businesses are struggling to survive til they can reopen for take-out only or 25% capacity, which will hardly help their bottom line.
That puts the total US mortality rate, with just the NY State cases factored, in the ball park of 2.7% mortality if one contracts it... That is not even counting the rest of the countries positive cases or antibody positive people.
If you estimate that as little as 5% of the country has had it, we're talking about a mortality in the range of .3-.4%..
To get to the "experts" estimates of 1.3 million deaths... the whole damn country, all 330,000,000, would have to contract it in the short time before a partial cure (Remdesivir) is found.
The numbers are so astounding against this public reaction and economic shutdown is mind boggling. This will go down as the most overhyped, unnecessary reaction in American history.
In March, sure lets hunker down for a couple weeks. See what we are dealing with. After that is way out of hand. State of HI has 47 total people in "quarantine" on the road to the 2 week recovering from a cough and runny nose, hardly anyone in the hospital, a 30% plus UI rate, and we still can barely play golf, sit on the beach, or use the parks for sports. Friends family businesses are struggling to survive til they can reopen for take-out only or 25% capacity, which will hardly help their bottom line.
al czervik said the mortality was 0.000228%
and you're saying its .3-.4 % but still agreeing with him?
One of you is wrong and anyone with a modicum of common sense can figure out who. Look it's definitely true way more people have gotten it than confirmed cases, but that doesn't mean the fatality rate is .0002 !!? In the words of mugatu "I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here!"
it makes zero sense to divide the total population by the total fatalities during an ongoing epidemic, as you will only be correct once it is over. And even then, not about infection vs death as not everyone gets infected. We may be 30 percent through this or 75 percent so whats the point of even using 330 million in this way?
OTOH, You said 5 percent have gotten it, right?seems reasonable. so if you take 5 percent of 330 million then divide that by total deaths to figure a rough fatality rate. Thats probably the .3-.4? That is literally thousands of times higher than .0002.
I don't agree with the mainstream perspective either guys but can we not be so sloppy.
05-09-2020, 05:03 PM
#132
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,222
Hold up guys...
OTOH, You said 5 percent have gotten it, right?seems reasonable. so if you take 5 percent of 330 million then divide that by total deaths to figure a rough fatality rate. Thats probably the .3-.4? That is literally thousands of times higher than .0002.
I don't agree with the mainstream perspective either guys but can we not be so sloppy.
OTOH, You said 5 percent have gotten it, right?seems reasonable. so if you take 5 percent of 330 million then divide that by total deaths to figure a rough fatality rate. Thats probably the .3-.4? That is literally thousands of times higher than .0002.
I don't agree with the mainstream perspective either guys but can we not be so sloppy.
Just to be conservative I dropped the country rate down to 5% for the Karen's who would complain if I used 10%.
330 million X 5%= 16.5million infections.
75000 deaths/ 16.5 million = .0045= 4 death/1000 people infected.
Problem with the Karen's of the world is they fail to realize that for most of this ****show, the only people getting tested have been people sick enough to need hospitalization. Call them the worse off patients who have an infinitely higher chance of dying, because well...they needed hospitalization in the first place. The rest of us have basically slight to NO symptoms... I'm more fearful of catching the HI five from a Korean brothel than catching a cough from Covid 19.
Wanna use 10% infection rate and then we're talking about the flu... Which the Karen's of the world just can't handle...
Last edited by kingairfun; 05-09-2020 at 05:15 PM.
05-09-2020, 06:25 PM
#133
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 536
NYC has estimates near 20% infection. Cuomo estimates roughly 14% statewide. 19.9 million people X 14%= 2.786million infections in NY.
Just to be conservative I dropped the country rate down to 5% for the Karen's who would complain if I used 10%.
330 million X 5%= 16.5million infections.
75000 deaths/ 16.5 million = .0045= 4 death/1000 people infected.
Just to be conservative I dropped the country rate down to 5% for the Karen's who would complain if I used 10%.
330 million X 5%= 16.5million infections.
75000 deaths/ 16.5 million = .0045= 4 death/1000 people infected.
05-10-2020, 05:31 AM
#134
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: PM
Posts: 207
Although numbers were down to 169580 today the number is still a gain in %. 8.539% of last years travel.
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05-10-2020, 06:03 AM
#136
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 1,192
Id be shocked if we aren’t over 200k again today.
05-10-2020, 06:53 AM
#137
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 192
And what percent of the fatalities either were residents of - or worked in - nursing homes?
According to The NY Times, a third..
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-homes-us.html
According to The NY Times, a third..
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-homes-us.html
05-10-2020, 08:09 AM
#138
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2010
Position: DOWNGRADE COMPLETE: Thanks Gary. Thanks SWAPA.
Posts: 6,823
Not to mention unconstitutional. America better wake the ++++ up to what’s happening. We’re headed down the totalitarian government rabbit hole. I lived under it as a kid and can recognize the erosion of freedom when I see it.
05-10-2020, 09:19 AM
#139
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 536
17 new cases in Michigan yesterday... SEVENTEEN.... in a state of 10,000,000 ??! And yet our governor considers us in "Flattening" and not "containment" , so everything is still closed until at least the end of may. Lowest day since march 3rd and we're all still on house arrest. Absolutely disgusted with the gross perversion of this crises.
05-10-2020, 09:34 AM
#140
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 27
Anyone tracking the updates can glean some continued positive trends from the data:
- recently topped 200k raw throughput
- averaged almost a 3% increase daily regain against % of LY 7DA for the last 3 weeks
- recently cracked 7% of LY 7DA and 8% of LY total
- three consecutive weeks of regain against % of LY 7DA
Once again, could just be reading bones and seashells, but it's been uplifting for me to watch. Thanks for anyone finding this useful!
- recently topped 200k raw throughput
- averaged almost a 3% increase daily regain against % of LY 7DA for the last 3 weeks
- recently cracked 7% of LY 7DA and 8% of LY total
- three consecutive weeks of regain against % of LY 7DA
Once again, could just be reading bones and seashells, but it's been uplifting for me to watch. Thanks for anyone finding this useful!
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