TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row
07-13-2020, 12:00 PM
#1381
Gets Tue/Wed and Sat Off
Joined APC: Oct 2008
Posts: 551
TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row
Well that’s not good...California just rolled back pretty much everything, closing restaurants, theaters, entertainment centers, etc. And more in most counties-looks like they’re basically back to food and pharmacies.
07-13-2020, 12:37 PM
#1382
Gets his house in order
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 315
nope. Just gotta drink outdoors. It’s like Europe came to me this summer. I like it.
07-13-2020, 02:41 PM
#1385
Banned
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
Oh I get it... but a small disclaimer doesn't make up for months of delusional Pollyannaisms.
More to your point.. Sunday July 5 was 378. Sunday July 12 (the number you posted) was 380. So even in your optimistic scenario, it's not a downward trend. It's just more cherry-picking.
More to your point.. Sunday July 5 was 378. Sunday July 12 (the number you posted) was 380. So even in your optimistic scenario, it's not a downward trend. It's just more cherry-picking.
Last edited by WutFace; 07-13-2020 at 02:53 PM.
07-13-2020, 03:55 PM
#1388
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 404
Easy. Just do a plot, day by day, of the 2020 numbers vs 2019 as a percentage since April 14. You can either do the math by hand at that point, or if you're using Excel plot a third order polynomial trend line. Either one will show that there has in fact been an inflection point (if you plot the trend line, you'll note that it reverses direction and starts falling downward in the future which is indicative of a second inflection point).
A chart that looks at weekly averages with a third order poly trend line also reflects this change :
A chart that looks at weekly averages with a third order poly trend line also reflects this change :
07-13-2020, 04:12 PM
#1389
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 417
This could be associated with any number of casual factors - the holiday weekend, states re-closing/locking down, COVID cases being reported, and so on. There is no way to tell, or really even make a reasonably informed guess, from the TSA data alone.
The real benefit of this kind of mathematical analysis is detecting a change early - sometimes before it's visible on a simple chart.
Last edited by bradthepilot; 07-13-2020 at 04:25 PM.
07-13-2020, 07:40 PM
#1390
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Position: CRJ9 CA
Posts: 4,083
Me neither, because I never said "flattening". What I did say was that there was an inflection point prior to the holiday weekend, and provided an explanation of how that was determined (poly regression). An inflection point is where growth stops increasing and starts decreasing, however slightly. Hanging a (in this case) third order poly trend line will verify this - if it curls downward after previously having curled upwards, the data has an inflection point in it's growth somewhere in the data that causes it.
This could be associated with any number of casual factors - the holiday weekend, states re-closing/locking down, COVID cases being reported, and so on. There is no way to tell, or really even make a reasonably informed guess, from the TSA data alone.
The real benefit of this kind of mathematical analysis is detecting a change early - sometimes before it's visible on a simple chart.
This could be associated with any number of casual factors - the holiday weekend, states re-closing/locking down, COVID cases being reported, and so on. There is no way to tell, or really even make a reasonably informed guess, from the TSA data alone.
The real benefit of this kind of mathematical analysis is detecting a change early - sometimes before it's visible on a simple chart.
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