TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row

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07-13-2020, 06:07 AM

#1371

Desdi

Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Jul 2018

Posts: 717

Was out flying yesterday, Our terminal was looking surprisingly like a normal Sunday besides the masks, Washington ctr up to their good ole multiple 90 degree turns for in trail spacing for traffic going up into NY. On the way out we were #7 for takeoff. All of these things were nonexistent a few short weeks ago. I know it’s anecdotal but it was fairly startling and good to see.

07-13-2020, 06:08 AM

#1372

Excargodog

Perennial Reserve

Joined APC: Jan 2018

Posts: 12,200

And while one robin doesn’t make a Spring, yesterday was a definite improvement. Let’s hope it was part of a downward trend.

And the House of the Mouse is up and running...well, walking anyway...

07-13-2020, 06:26 AM

#1373

bradthepilot

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Joined APC: Jan 2016

Posts: 417

Quote:

Originally Posted by pangolin

As a numbers guy there’s no numbers showing said plateau.

As a numbers guy, there was an inflection point in the screening percentages of 2020 vs. 2019 a couple of weeks ago that turned the trend (a polynomial regression analysis shows that it happened the week before the 4th of July). Although the holiday traffic reversed it temporarily, it appears to be back this week.

Not enough data to identify a cause, but it would not be inconsistent with a lull before/after the holiday weekend (a similar thing, though not to the same extent, happened pre/post memorial day weekend) and/or the rise in reported cases of COVID-19.

07-13-2020, 06:56 AM

#1374

sumwherelse

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Joined APC: Dec 2010

Posts: 404

Quote:

Originally Posted by bradthepilot

aaaaaaand your point please??? Talk to me like I’m seven!

07-13-2020, 07:01 AM

#1375

bradthepilot

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Joined APC: Jan 2016

Posts: 417

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumwherelse

aaaaaaand your point please??? Talk to me like I’m seven!

The growth in screening numbers for 2020, as a percentage of 2019, was slowly increasing until a few weeks ago but is now slowing down.

07-13-2020, 07:50 AM

#1376

emersonbiguns

P/T Gear Slinger

Joined APC: May 2017

Position: Airbus

Posts: 824

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

And while one robin doesn’t make a Spring, yesterday was a definite improvement. Let’s hope it was part of a downward trend.

Hmmmmm, I thought the weekly cycle of reporting was fairly obvious, apparently not.

07-13-2020, 10:20 AM

#1377

pangolin

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Joined APC: Jul 2017

Position: CRJ9 CA

Posts: 4,083

Quote:

Originally Posted by bradthepilot

The growth in screening numbers for 2020, as a percentage of 2019, was slowly increasing until a few weeks ago but is now slowing down.

You’ll have to show me hard numbers because I don’t see this infection point. It’s been a steady 2 pct per week moving Towards 3 once it’s smoothed.

07-13-2020, 10:30 AM

#1378

bradthepilot

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Joined APC: Jan 2016

Posts: 417

Quote:

Originally Posted by pangolin

You’ll have to show me hard numbers because I don’t see this infection point. It’s been a steady 2 pct per week moving Towards 3 once it’s smoothed.

Easy. Just do a plot, day by day, of the 2020 numbers vs 2019 as a percentage since April 14. You can either do the math by hand at that point, or if you're using Excel plot a third order polynomial trend line. Either one will show that there has in fact been an inflection point (if you plot the trend line, you'll note that it reverses direction and starts falling downward in the future which is indicative of a second inflection point).

A chart that looks at weekly averages with a third order poly trend line also reflects this change :