TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row
07-09-2020, 09:31 AM
#1341
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 147
Ive said this before but I feel a lot of people are over estimating the impact of Disney World reopening on air travel.
2019 total pax in all US airports = 1,053,000,000
2019 total pax at MCO = 50,000,000
Its just 4%. And not all 50,000,000 went to Disney when you take out locals, business travel and convention travel in central FL. Let’s say those flying into other FL airports add a bit back, it’s still less then 4% total US travelers by air that are going to Disney.
Best case MCO has just 100k out of the 2.7million pax that flew daily last summer. And that 100k is for all reasons. Back out locals, business travel and convention traffic and that number maybe only 50-75k per day to Disney last summer.
So the Disney bump, best case, adds 75K per day to the TSA numbers. Assuming due to to reasons already mentioned, the numbers this summer at Disney are half of last year, than we are down to 30-40k per day bump.
so yeah I’ll take 30-40k more each day, but it’s not going to get us the significant bump some are expecting.
2019 total pax in all US airports = 1,053,000,000
2019 total pax at MCO = 50,000,000
Its just 4%. And not all 50,000,000 went to Disney when you take out locals, business travel and convention travel in central FL. Let’s say those flying into other FL airports add a bit back, it’s still less then 4% total US travelers by air that are going to Disney.
Best case MCO has just 100k out of the 2.7million pax that flew daily last summer. And that 100k is for all reasons. Back out locals, business travel and convention traffic and that number maybe only 50-75k per day to Disney last summer.
So the Disney bump, best case, adds 75K per day to the TSA numbers. Assuming due to to reasons already mentioned, the numbers this summer at Disney are half of last year, than we are down to 30-40k per day bump.
so yeah I’ll take 30-40k more each day, but it’s not going to get us the significant bump some are expecting.
07-10-2020, 04:51 AM
#1342
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Joined APC: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,555
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07-10-2020, 05:26 AM
#1343
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Joined APC: Aug 2019
Position: I fly things
Posts: 99
First day above 700 that’s not due to a holiday. And cases are spiking still. Nice!
07-10-2020, 06:11 AM
#1344
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 147
The fact that we seem to be keeping the small growth trend going despite rising case numbers is a good sign. I don’t see us bouncing back to 75% of 2019 levels anytime soon, but we’re not falling off a cliff again either, even with the rise in covid cases. These numbers won’t prevent furloughs but if it signals that society isn’t going to hopelessly panic and go into hiding like we did in March-April, that’s progress.
07-10-2020, 06:47 AM
#1346
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
next goal post is 30% level (of last year), repeatedly
broke thru 25% for the most part
broke thru 25% for the most part
07-10-2020, 02:39 PM
#1350
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,222
I'm gonna stick to mid-August. Either way, anything close to 1.2-1.5 by Oct would be good IMO... That would give us 8 months to get back to the 2.2-2.5 million by summer assuming this all dies down after the magic date of Nov. 4th or the silver bullet vaccine.
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