TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row
05-09-2020, 11:22 AM
#121
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,004
Exactly. If you were to run the numbers of people who have actually had it against the actual death rate, I bet it settles somewhere in the .01-.02% mortality rate...if not lower. And then factor in that a vast majority of our death rate has occurred in nursing homes and/or people that were already extremely ill. It’s time to stop quarantining healthy people.
05-09-2020, 11:23 AM
#122
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Thread Starter
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
if the numbers go up, some groups are quick to discredit the numbers. inflated, "not real", "data is bad", deaths being counted as COVID when they shouldn't be, etc.
if the same numbers go down, the same groups above high-five each other and no longer discredit the numbers.
if the same numbers go down, the same groups above high-five each other and no longer discredit the numbers.
05-09-2020, 11:34 AM
#123
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,200
Help us, Mickey, you are our only hope...
05-09-2020, 12:18 PM
#124
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Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 472
That is not correct in accordance With the risk management training I have had.
People respond less to the reality than to the perception of reality. They need reinforcement that return to normal is safe from someone or something they have a long familiarity with and trust in. In this pandemic almost everyone like that has failed them.
The early actions of the Chinese in this pandemic are reprehensible.
The actions of the World Health Organization went from foolhardy to inept to alarming.
The CDC certainly did not cover themselves with glory, and both political parties and most state government officials have been running around with all the purpose and clarity of chickens with their heads cut off.
there exists, in fact, only one credible and widely respected authority left in our culture:
When a certain mouse opens up his resorts the pax will be back.
People respond less to the reality than to the perception of reality. They need reinforcement that return to normal is safe from someone or something they have a long familiarity with and trust in. In this pandemic almost everyone like that has failed them.
The early actions of the Chinese in this pandemic are reprehensible.
The actions of the World Health Organization went from foolhardy to inept to alarming.
The CDC certainly did not cover themselves with glory, and both political parties and most state government officials have been running around with all the purpose and clarity of chickens with their heads cut off.
there exists, in fact, only one credible and widely respected authority left in our culture:
When a certain mouse opens up his resorts the pax will be back.
05-09-2020, 12:23 PM
#125
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Joined APC: Mar 2016
Position: Here and there
Posts: 1,906
TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row
CDC portal this morning:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
1,248,040 cases and 75,477 deaths
330 million / 1,248,040 =
0.0378% chance of infection (4%)
330 million / 75,477 =
0.000228% chance of death (2/1,000% chance of death)
For non-high risk groups, 20% x 0.000228 =
0.0000457% chance of death (4/10,000% chance of death)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
1,248,040 cases and 75,477 deaths
330 million / 1,248,040 =
0.0378% chance of infection (4%)
330 million / 75,477 =
0.000228% chance of death (2/1,000% chance of death)
For non-high risk groups, 20% x 0.000228 =
0.0000457% chance of death (4/10,000% chance of death)
I’ll be that guy and point out 1,248,040 infected out of 330,000,000 people is 0.378% not 4% which only serves to show how many fewer people are known to be infected.
05-09-2020, 01:20 PM
#127
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,200
And what percent of the fatalities either were residents of - or worked in - nursing homes?
According to The NY Times, a third..
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-homes-us.html
According to The NY Times, a third..
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-homes-us.html
05-09-2020, 01:43 PM
#128
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Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,222
That puts the total US mortality rate, with just the NY State cases factored, in the ball park of 2.7% mortality if one contracts it... That is not even counting the rest of the countries positive cases or antibody positive people.
If you estimate that as little as 5% of the country has had it, we're talking about a mortality in the range of .3-.4%..
To get to the "experts" estimates of 1.3 million deaths... the whole damn country, all 330,000,000, would have to contract it in the short time before a partial cure (Remdesivir) is found.
The numbers are so astounding against this public reaction and economic shutdown is mind boggling. This will go down as the most overhyped, unnecessary reaction in American history.
In March, sure lets hunker down for a couple weeks. See what we are dealing with. After that is way out of hand. State of HI has 47 total people in "quarantine" on the road to the 2 week recovering from a cough and runny nose, hardly anyone in the hospital, a 30% plus UI rate, and we still can barely play golf, sit on the beach, or use the parks for sports. Friends family businesses are struggling to survive til they can reopen for take-out only or 25% capacity, which will hardly help their bottom line.
05-09-2020, 01:47 PM
#129
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Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,222
And what percent of the fatalities either were residents of - or worked in - nursing homes?
According to The NY Times, a third..
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-homes-us.html
According to The NY Times, a third..
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-homes-us.html
Roughly 66% of the people that ended up in the hospital were staying at home. There is no statistical data proving you are better off indoors. The only way to truly stop this thing would have been for 100% business shutdown, no contact between anyone in a house hold for weeks And let the sick and dying, die alone in their rooms.
One Hawaii outbreak was caused by the hospital. And I know for a fact the staff in the hospital was not following "mask/distancing" protocol. They were hanging out in the break rooms, no masks, eating lunch together etc.
This virus was going to run it's course no matter what we did. Unlike Ebola or SARS, too hard to tell who has it. Other than permanent lockdown, and economic Armageddon, the spread will continue for awhile, oh well. We can get the running nose and cough now while ejoying life or drag it out sitting in our homes scared later. I vote for the former.
America is not set up to be a police State thank god. If someone thinks we should let the gov't and law enforcement arrest people over being outside without a mask, I cordially invite them to leave the country and move to China or N. Korea.
05-09-2020, 02:08 PM
#130
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Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,004
Thing is, it’s not just the US taking these extreme measures; it’s the whole world. S. Korea just shut down over 2000 Clubs and bars again...because a 29 year old tested positive. It’s going to be an uphill battle trying to keep everything open here.
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