Compass updates
03-30-2015, 01:06 PM
#6471
New Hire
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: E-175 FO
Posts: 6
Still a good time?
Honest opinions, I know the quick upgrade and most of the movement is already happening and will soon be a thing of the past. However, lets say a candidate were to interview this month and take the next available class, can they still expect a considerable amount of movement? Are new hires holding MSP out of training? Thanks in advance!
03-30-2015, 01:41 PM
#6472
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Position: E-175
Posts: 458
I don't know how far out the classes are right now, but I don't think it's past May. If you get hired, volunteer to take an early class and you may sneak into a March-April class.
150 flow pilots will be removed from the top of the list starting April 1 through November 1, at a pace of 20 a month, which requires 20 line pilots/month added until 150 are added. We need to add 20 line pilots/month starting March 1 for approximately 10 months until we add 200 total for the AA flying. We have probably added 200 out of the 350 required. That number may include those in March.
650 is their end number with non-flying pilots included. We probably are around 650 pilots right now (500 active, rest in training and off line) and need to hire another 150 for the flow and AA growth. You can almost think of it as though we need to grow to 800 to account for the 150 flow pilots leaving. After that, all hiring is for regular attrition, which they are planning on 50/year (probably higher).
To figure out where you will sit, take the current seniority list (650) and add 40/month past March through July and roughly 10/month after that for you to start. Take that number and minus 150 for your November number to account for all the 150 flow pilots departing by November. Divide that by 650 and there is your rough seniority % at the beginning of November. 1-5 non-flow pilots will likely leave monthly, so you can probably account for that too by subtracting 175-200 instead for your November number.
Anyone hired in the next 1-5 months will gain seniority at the behest of the flow pilots leaving and the AA growth. After that, you will gain seniority based on normal attrition, which is increasing. No one hired now can hold captain based on being 50% or higher, but with all those lacking minimums, if you have the minimums, chances are you will hold captain within months of being hired. You will be junior to all those that bypassed once they upgrade though.
150 flow pilots will be removed from the top of the list starting April 1 through November 1, at a pace of 20 a month, which requires 20 line pilots/month added until 150 are added. We need to add 20 line pilots/month starting March 1 for approximately 10 months until we add 200 total for the AA flying. We have probably added 200 out of the 350 required. That number may include those in March.
650 is their end number with non-flying pilots included. We probably are around 650 pilots right now (500 active, rest in training and off line) and need to hire another 150 for the flow and AA growth. You can almost think of it as though we need to grow to 800 to account for the 150 flow pilots leaving. After that, all hiring is for regular attrition, which they are planning on 50/year (probably higher).
To figure out where you will sit, take the current seniority list (650) and add 40/month past March through July and roughly 10/month after that for you to start. Take that number and minus 150 for your November number to account for all the 150 flow pilots departing by November. Divide that by 650 and there is your rough seniority % at the beginning of November. 1-5 non-flow pilots will likely leave monthly, so you can probably account for that too by subtracting 175-200 instead for your November number.
Anyone hired in the next 1-5 months will gain seniority at the behest of the flow pilots leaving and the AA growth. After that, you will gain seniority based on normal attrition, which is increasing. No one hired now can hold captain based on being 50% or higher, but with all those lacking minimums, if you have the minimums, chances are you will hold captain within months of being hired. You will be junior to all those that bypassed once they upgrade though.
The regular attrition will be higher than TSH plans for. Seems a given with the way they have predicted things. The active list (minus flows) may go as high as 700 to staff the 62 airplanes, but we will have to wait and see for that.
It can't be another 150-200 that need to join the list after March for the flow attrition and AA growth in 2015. It's a safe bet to subtract 40/month for April and each month after (from the 150-200 number) to see if you got on before hiring slows for regular attrition. I wouldn't be surprised to see them need 250 or more for the rest of 2015, but we have to be fairly close to only needing to hire another 150 for the flow attrition and AA growth.
It can't be another 150-200 that need to join the list after March for the flow attrition and AA growth in 2015. It's a safe bet to subtract 40/month for April and each month after (from the 150-200 number) to see if you got on before hiring slows for regular attrition. I wouldn't be surprised to see them need 250 or more for the rest of 2015, but we have to be fairly close to only needing to hire another 150 for the flow attrition and AA growth.
Posts are a month or two old. But info still holds true. If you got in a class, say May 1, you will be at the tail end of the massive rush of upgrades. However, still plenty of other attrition going on thats will only increase as the majors start up hiring.
As far as MSP goes, it is possible to get it out of training. Currently if you were in class this week, Hardly any reserve in LAX, 4-9 months in MSP. Capt upgrade in MSP will also take longer. I have been told that it could be 3-4 years, vs 1-2 years @ LAX.
Do you have any prior 121? If so, you could fall into the "street captain" situation. Not real street captain hiring going on. But due to the amount of FO's with less than 1000 121, the bypass is going very very junior to those who do have 121 experience elsewhere and then came here.
Honest opinions, I know the quick upgrade and most of the movement is already happening and will soon be a thing of the past. However, lets say a candidate were to interview this month and take the next available class, can they still expect a considerable amount of movement? Are new hires holding MSP out of training? Thanks in advance!
03-30-2015, 01:55 PM
#6473
New Hire
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: E-175 FO
Posts: 6
Wow thanks for the quick reply and excellent information. I have a fair amount of 121 time but I'm not quite at the 1,000 and am stuck at the bottom of a shrinking regional right now. Looking to make a move, and I think Compass would be a great place to hang my hat for the next few years while I wait on the next step. I keep hearing that MSP is shrinking, has that stopped now with the current bid that just came out or is that continuing to be the trend? I'm originally from Minnesota and would like to get back there.
Again thanks for taking the time.
Again thanks for taking the time.
03-30-2015, 03:34 PM
#6474
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2010
Posts: 614
With the latest vacancy that came out, MSP is staying the same size (growing by 2 captains). Junior MSP FO is a mid December 2014 hire.
03-30-2015, 03:42 PM
#6475
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Position: E-175
Posts: 458
Wow thanks for the quick reply and excellent information. I have a fair amount of 121 time but I'm not quite at the 1,000 and am stuck at the bottom of a shrinking regional right now. Looking to make a move, and I think Compass would be a great place to hang my hat for the next few years while I wait on the next step. I keep hearing that MSP is shrinking, has that stopped now with the current bid that just came out or is that continuing to be the trend? I'm originally from Minnesota and would like to get back there.
Again thanks for taking the time.
Again thanks for taking the time.
edit: my understanding of MSP is that there are no plans to reduce size anymore. it did shrink a little, but that has since stopped. Vast majority if not all the Flow's are coming out of MSP. Everyone in interviews is being told that there are no plans for any changes to MSP anytime soon.
03-30-2015, 03:46 PM
#6476
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 270
My bet, early summer guys will be holding LAX CA while still in training.
03-30-2015, 03:56 PM
#6478
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Cessna 150 Left seat
Posts: 430
With shuttle route LAX/SFO going to Delta, how much SFO lay over are you guys seeing? Or expect to see?
Thanks
Thanks
03-30-2015, 03:58 PM
#6479
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2013
Posts: 102
Wow thanks for the quick reply and excellent information. I have a fair amount of 121 time but I'm not quite at the 1,000 and am stuck at the bottom of a shrinking regional right now. Looking to make a move, and I think Compass would be a great place to hang my hat for the next few years while I wait on the next step. I keep hearing that MSP is shrinking, has that stopped now with the current bid that just came out or is that continuing to be the trend? I'm originally from Minnesota and would like to get back there.
Again thanks for taking the time.
Again thanks for taking the time.
With previous 121 time - you're ahead of the game. Everyone talks about the flows, but the guys that don't have the flow - have their apps in everywhere - so attrition will be positive movement as well.
03-30-2015, 04:01 PM
#6480
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2013
Posts: 102
They are slowly picking this route up, so we still have a bit of overnights. That being said - I had 4-8 SFO overnights per month this year, but in April I only have 1...but that's just me.
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