It for sure isn't AA.

Many of us agree. But for the sake of conversation, what makes you so sure? I don't know enough about the regional side of AA.

The pitch about E190’s to Alaska seems plausible. Can someone poke holes in that? AS doesn’t have a scope clause. On top of it, seems like they aren’t doing much more with OO. OO is growing in the Delta and United side, right? If they got E190’s, where would they come from and what’s a realistic possibility?

I found it interesting on the call the company was rambling, but mentioning expensive changes. Swapping out ALL of our iPads, new cases and mounts? Carrying more RSV buffers than lines out of SEA? Not furloughing anybody yet... I’m not sure if I’m more saddened by the inability to play financially smart, or intrigued that something is around the corner.

Regardless, we won’t have an announcement by new years, and a lot of people have drawn lines in the sand. It’s going to be a big month for attrition IMO.

For the sake of conversation, it wouldn't really fit AA's growth model. They are trying to grow their DFW and ORD bases with more 76 seater regional feed.
Most new long haul routes have been announced from the east coast or DFW. West coast seems stagnant on the profitable long haul connections, so no need to increase regional feed there.

Also, I believe AA sees that the potential new flying for Compass might be a conflict of interest. So I think they are making contingency plans already.
After the Mesa deal, there is no regional flying left for grabs (unless Alaska pulls a rabbit out of the hat), and you can't be initial cadre for anything and keep flying for AA. That would be a huge mess. And operating 200NN to 219NN isn't a viable business plan.

All of this is obviously 100% speculation. It's worth what you paid for it :)

Agreed. Although I don't see us being on the west coast being a problem if anyone wanted to acquire us or move us around. For sure, we would not keep operating as an airline with only 20 AA planes, and IF we were to be involved with Moxy, I bet the AA planes would be happily given up early by CPZ to AA if possible.

If you think getting a new iPad means you’re not getting furloughed you’re gonna have a bad time.

Whether it's Moxy or not, I believe a bunch of us will interview with them. If we get into the first few months of 2020 and no new information is given, I think those of us who have been waiting will be forced to make a decision. And while risky, Moxy could be a huge win.

Personally, I'm sitting tight and riding this thing out. However, I have a history of sitting at the card table a little too long.

I’m not sure that giving up AA flying would even be necessary. I haven’t actually been able to come up with a copy of the AA scope limitation, but from my understanding most major airline scope limitations are specific to THEIR code shared flights, not to individual regionals.

In theory at least, that would not stop a regional from having other contracts with other companies that are not scope compliant for the first company. Indeed, that appears to be what Mesa is looking into doing with 737s.

For that matter, the Delta birds we have been flying aren’t scope compliant for a lot of companies that Republic and SkyWest fly for (MTOW 89,000 too high), and never were for AA flying all the years we have been doing it, yet that apparently hasn’t stopped anything.

Anybody got an online reference for the AA scope clause?

The AS pilots are deep in contract negotiations, and scope is either the #1 issue, or tied for #1. Mgt has repeatedly stated that 190's would be a mainline aircraft... that's not worth much in and of itself, but an 11th hour hard reversal on that stance while in the middle of scope negotiations would push a border-line angry pilot group into open militant rebellion.

Also they brought on OO simply to remind QX of their place: subcontractor bidding for work. I seriously doubt they have any interest in incurring the management overhead of a third regional when QX could fly 190's if it came to that (OO is scope limited by DL/UA).

I wouldn't hold your breath on that one.

I don’t know specifics, but scope wouldn’t necessarily limit what a contracted carrier could fly for someone else, but the specific contract might. That might include some kind of no compete. But in the case of Mesa flying the 73s, those are freight, so would not be directly competing with AA anyway.