Norcal-G4

Thanks for all your guidance and encouragement!
Balanced advice from a bunch of professionals :-) The most important decisions are always the hardest to make. I will just have to cross my fingers and hope that I get a call. It seems like I have always been led down a good career path. At 22 I never thought I'd be flying corporate, but here I am, and I consider myself fortunate.

Thanks again you guys

CaptainTeezy

What kind of equipment do you fly???? And what company???

capt_zman

Norcal,

Ok here you go, as apples to apples as you can possibly get. Same exact situation I was in 2 years ago (your situation is eerily similar as mine except I was from the other coast). With that being said, here is a major reason you really need to plan and make sure you understand before making a decision:

Income Forecast - You'll start in an engineer seat (possibly could be extremely lucky to get an ANC MD11 slot, but I doubt it), probably in the back of the 72. Not a big deal, but when you calculate your 1st year earnings, you'll be in the range of 30k-40k, depending on how hard you want to work. You obviously plan for this, but it is still a ~145k loss of income. You can supplement this somewhat by still doing outside flying with your old company (if possible), but that requires a letter from the SCP and VP of Flight Ops.

2nd year is much better, but it's anyone's bet when you would go to training on what you wanted to fly. Some have been able to time it right, some have not. What I'm getting at is that 2nd year income can vary greatly. It took me almost until the end of the year to upgrade, so I made about 45k and others I know made about 120k. Total income lost for this year = 130k for a total 2 yr loss of 275k. It's going to take a loooooooong time to make that money up and I realize that there are a million variables that could affect this, but as of right now that's where I'm at.

It's really unrealistic to think that you could scale down from a 175k/yr income to ~45k/yr. Not many FO's here have ever made that kind of money, never mind having made it for the past 10 years or so (as I was). So scaling a household back to those wages means an all-out assault on your savings account.

There are alot of differences between airline and corporate. PM me for more info and I'll give you as much info as you need.

Good luck.

bluebravo

Norcal,

I am also on the corp side of things making nice money, BUT at ANY given second the "Bill Gates type" can go hook up with some piece out of long beach and bye bye airplane. It's unpredictable on the sunny side of things.

Now if it was me, I would stick around. If you enjoy where you live, enjoy the money, and time off, stay. Like some others have said, if you go to the dark side, you would take a major pay cut and be away from the family alot more. I mean who wants to fly on the dark side of the clock if we don't have to?

Did I help? No.

Good Luck!

Jetjok

Sounds like you've a great job, where you enjoy both the company and your fellow pilots. Personally, I'd stay right there. No one can predict the future, but if you continue to accrue PIC time in a big jet, you'll be able to parley that into a FedEx/UPS job whenever you tire of your current flying/company.

Best of luck, as no one in this industry knows how their choice of companies worked out, until retirement. And then again, as with United, even then, you can't really be sure.

Whistlin' Dan

Sounds like what US Airways was telling prospective employees 20 years ago. I'm sure glad I passed on that job. My buddy didn't, and he's been staring out a right-side window for $100/hr ever since.

I did the math. Here's what I came up with;

FedEx operates about 377 airplanes, of which 107 are three-pilot 727's. Those airplanes are due to be replaced by 757's which are operated by two pilots, and which will carry about 20% more cargo. The "math" here tells us that productivity for each pilot currently operating the 727 will nearly double. If 43% of FedEx's 4,862 pilots are serving on the 727, a pilot hired right now will be effectively bumped back 1045 numbers as the 757's are introduced into service.

Obviously, International ops eats up crews at a higher rate, making an exact calculation of how quickly one might expect to upgrade impossible. But given that even with 10 years of near-explosive growth in overnight express it still takes almost 6 years to reach the left seat at either company, it's safe to say that any new hire shouldn't expect to upgrade any sooner.

Like it or not, the age-60 rule will likely change during that time as well, allowing guys to fly until 65. More preflights...

OK, more math. This guy's making 175K/yr working at a job he loves. Using the hourly rates posted on this website and assuming he works 1,000 credit hours per year, a move to either of the companies he mentioned will cost him no less than $400,000 in lost earnings before he reaches parity with what he's making now. For that, he will no doubt sit long hours of reserve in a city away from his family, do countless preflights in the snow, and yank the gear for guys he probably won't like working with as much as the ones he's flying with now. (Corporate gigs tend to be much more copacetic places to work than airlines, in part because they need to be) Unless he really wants to live in Memphis, Louisville, Hooterville or wherever (or spend 2-4 days a month commuting), the upgrade might take as long as 10 years in which case the loss of income could easily exceed a half-million dollars. Of course, even that would only make him a Junior Captain at his base. I see lots of quality crash-pad time in this guys future...

The point I was trying to make is not whether FedEx and UPS are "good" jobs, because they clearly ARE. ( I wish I'd gone to one or the other when I had the chance...in 1986) But the decision about whether or not to seek employment at one of those carriers now depends largely upon where one is coming from. For a guy fresh out of the military or one who has been herding a Caravan around all night for the last 5 years, the decision truly is a "no-brainer." But for a guy who's making a buck-seventy-five flying top-shelf equipment for a company he loves, it's nowhere near as clear as you might think it is ...

Busboy

How many corporate jobs have been taken, and lost, under the same type of promises?


Lot's of that "fuzzy math" stuff going on here. It seem very prevalent on this forum. Fedex only has 277 727 capts listed on the last seat bid, and about the same number of F/O's and S/O's.

So, my math tells me that if we lost all the 727's and didn't even replace them...a pilot hired right now would be effectively bumped back 750+/- numbers. Since, that's the entire 727 crew force. But, the 727's are going to be replaced.

And, FedEx presently has a net increase of 20 widebody aircraft scheduled to arrive, just in 2007. So, I don't think we need to talk about stagnation or being bumped back.

I understand what you're trying to tell this corporate guy. And, you have some valid points. He does have a good gig, for the time being. But, let's just give him the actual facts. No need to hypothesize. Unless, you have that crystal ball we've all been looking for.

Besides, if he stays in his current position...He'll never get to be a rich airline pilot! Like all of us.

dckozak

Well Dan your points are well taken, but at least regarding staffing, let me give you a little, "insider knowledge" regarding some of your presumptions.
First, based on bid pack totals for working crews (non line bidding pilots not considered), 25% of FedEx pilots are flying the 727, not (even close) 43%.
No surprise to the FedEx lurkers, the MD-11 is the largest group with 37.6% of the pilots bidding in one of the three domiciles. For inquiring minds (probably FedEx types ), 14% of pilots, for various reasons are in a pay only status with regards to bidding.

Regarding your other points, I think age 60 will have the biggest near term affect on the junior-est pilots and those seeking near term employment. Retirement of the 727 will not come overnight, and if past history is any guide, the 727 will be retired at a slower rate than advertised, probably with a net increase in narrow body staffing (at least for a while).

Other points regarding changing jobs are valid. Upgrade is always a crystal ball thing but recent history suggests that a pilot willing to bid the earliest captain seat will be able to hold it in about 5 years, wide body FO in less than a year.

JollyF15

Dan,
You do make some valid points about leaving a good gig, flying with guys you like, and losing some earnings in the short term. But I think that's offest by the retirement and B-Fund he will get. Could they go away in the future? Never say never, but it's extremely unlikely to happen. It's not an easy call for sure, but I think if you take the emotion out of it and really do the math---he would be far better off financially making the move. If he's in his early thirties, he would be a wide body Capt at either company in his early 40's, or mid 40's if he chose to wait for seniority. That's 15+ years as a wide body Captain at either company. Making 175K and having a good schedule is nohting to scoff at, so it is a tough call. If he's happy where he is it makes it even harder. From a financial stand point, I'd say he's better off making the move. But money's not everything.

Jolly

YAKflyer

[QUOTE=Norcal-G4;106613]I'm looking for a little advice from some of you well seasoned FedEx or UPS pilots.

I'm trying to figure out if I should continue with my great corporate flying job or make the move to FedEx or UPS.

If you were in my shoes and knowing what you all know about cargo flying, what would you do??

Would you consider taking the big initial pay cut and make the move to FedEx or UPS??


Not a cargo guy here, but spent 30 years flying heavy Boeings. I don't think you can ever make up the money you would lose by changing when you figure what the value of the money would be if you invested 75K of what you earn each year for the next ten years. It could take that long before your airline earnings catch what you are making now and would likely be increased to over that time. In the mean time if you have job security and like your boss I doubt you will be treated with near as much respect at any airline as you get flying corporate..........