Pakagecheck

I contend all of them will keep their seat. I say that for two reasons. The company is already realizing the 76(by the way WB) cannot perfectly replace the MD10/11 and that the 75 doesn't replace the bus. There is a big push to try and re-attack the 777-200(or some version of the 777) for domestic use and to buy more new 777's to bring the md11 back domestic for it's lift capability. The second reason is just on the current fleet plan through 2017 (which doesn't include the info above) has the 76 and the MD10/11 a net wash. We are then down 22 bus's. but gain 2 777s. so down 22 bus's at 4:1 manning is 88 captains plus 777's 2 at 12:1 which is 24. So 88-24 is 64 captain seats loss. Just in mandatory retirements we have 456(lets just say half are WB capt- a very generous percentage) so 228 WB captains retire and 64 seats are lost. That is still 164(I would say 250) more people to upgrade to WB captain until 2017.
Not sure what you are seeing but internationally I see freight being left and domestically I am seeing MD11/10 loads up 10-20k and well beyond the 76 capacity. JMHO but I think we will see more WB a/c be purchased in the next year.

Pakage

Doogs

More aircraft purchases or slower aircraft retirements? I understand it amounts to the same in terms of seats available.

maddogpyrat

Does anyone know if a HKG pilot excesses and then rebids the base into 757/767 does that reset the commitment? This has to be buried somewhere in the CBA but it's not clear (to me). Might have a huge effect on the results.

HKFlyr

Commitment is reset to two years minimum. Problematic for some.

MaxKts

Of course it would! Even if we had language in the CBA, to the contrary, the company would reinterpret it as resetting the clock. We would grieve it and lose!

SeeDub

I've been hearing whispers since Jan, Feb 2014 that contary to popular belief, FedEx doesn't have enough enough lift going forward and actually had to scale back it's scheduled aircraft retirements and planned excess bids because of it. For me, this has all fit into my general feeling ond observations of what has been going on with cargo and the economy which is that it is really doing better than most want to admit for whatever reason.

And now this article copied below from ACW. I know Boeing has its own vested interest, but if it is even half of what they are projecting it is still positive news. And then there is the UPS/FedEx price increase slated for Jan 2015 that futher points to increasing demand for our product. I'm a long way from doom and gloom with regards to cargo growth and career stagnation at. FedEx. I argue things are actually looking pretty good for us and because of it, we pilots have even more power than we realize.

Air Cargo World

Boeing expects air cargo traffic to double by 2033
By John W. McCurry on October 7, 2014

SEOUL -- Boeing’s biennial World Air Cargo forecast paints a rosy next two decades for the industry with an annual growth rate of 4.7 percent over the next 20 years, more than doubling global airfreight traffic by 2013.
Boeing unveiled its forecast at the TIACA Air Cargo Forum here on Tuesday.
Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, says a period of stagnation in airfreight traffic appears to be over.
“It’s clearly been a market places with challenges from the Great Recession,” Tinseth said. “Hopefully, we are looking at data that shows we are moving out of an era of slow growth to one of more typical growth.”
An improvement in global industrial production over the past 18 months bodes well for air cargo, Tinseth said. Much of the weak air cargo growth in recent years can be attributed to an underperforming world economy and lackluster trade growth, he said.
“There has been a lot of volatility in the market, but since 2012, we have seen slow, but consistent improvement, especially over the last 18 months," he said. "We expect trade to grow at long-term trends and we see a one-to-one relationship between growth of trade growth of air cargo.”
The forecast shows Asia-North America and Europe-Asia continuing*to dominate world air cargo markets with the greater traffic volume. Intra-Asia, domestic China and Asia-North America markets are expected to have the greatest rates of growth over the next 20 years.
The traffic growth bodes well for freighter deliveries.*Boeing says the world freighter fleet will grow with deliveries of 840 new factory-built airplanes and 1,330 passenger to freighter conversions during that timeframe. More than 52 percent of those deliveries are expected to replace retiring aircraft with the remainder needed to handle the traffic*growth. Boeing believes that more than 70 percent of the new, factory-built airplanes forecast to be delivered between 2014 and 2033 will be large freighters, such as the 747-8 and the 777.
Tinseth said there are currently more than 140 777s and 747-8Fs flying with strong records of reliability. They fly an average of 12 hours a day, he said.
“We are seeing more and more carriers start to get interested in buying freighters for the future,” he said.
The Boeing forecast, which has been published regularly since the 1980s, was compiled by a team of 10 analysts, led by Tom Crabtree, of Boeing’s Marketing & Business Development, Commercial Airplanes operation.
“The challenge is getting the data from the industry,” Crabtree said. “There is a lot of proprietary data out there.”
The forecast is an ongoing process and the next one will begin in earnest in a few months. Tinseth, who likened the effort to a “sausage-making” process, said Boeing uses the forecast to help develop its product strategy.
“It’s an important part of developing our long-range business plan,” he said. “We share it with our customers and suppliers to help them with the planning process.”

StarClipper

Air Cargo is going to continue to be on the upswing for a while, My prediction is that FedEx will acquire a few more B777 starting in 2017 which when Emirates Starts getting rid of some of their B777s. I think they're waiting to get a them cheaper.

golfandfly

Thanks for your prediction. Having any luck getting a job for the fedex feeders?

Rock

Emirates just got their 777 freighters about the same time FedEx did and I very much doubt they'll be getting rid of them anytime soon. The passenger variant of the 777 cannot be converted into a freighter, so unless Fred is looking at getting into the passenger business, I'm going to suggest your prediction isn't worth much.

StarClipper

What make you think the PAX 777 can't be converted